11 March 2013

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Complacency Trade


Gold and silver held their price levels quite well despite the rally in stocks, which ordinarily would have spelled a selloff in the precious metals. VIX dropped to a six year low.

Let's see how the Merry Pranksters trade the rest of this week. We may be near a turning point, at least in the short term.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - VIX to a Six Year Low


The VIX, the indicator of volatility, dropped to a six year low today as the US equity markets shook off weak economic data out of China, and the downgrade of Italian debt, to move to fresh highs in the touristy Dow.

The SP futures have a measuring objective of 1570. They closed around 1555 today.

I took a long in volatility towards the close of US trading today to balance some other things out for the most part.





08 March 2013

US Unemployment Rates Adjusted For a Constant Labor Participation Rate


These charts courtesy of chartmaster Gary at NowAndFutures.com




Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - God's Mills Grind Slowly


Gold and silver would not be denied, despite some fairly determined efforts.

Silver did the heavy lifting.  The intra-day charts are included below.
"Gottes Mühlen mahlen langsam, mahlen aber trefflich klein,
Ob auß Langmuth er sich seumet, bringt mit Schärff er alles ein."

Friedrich von Logau, Göttliche Rache

Have a pleasant weekend. See you Sunday evening.





SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Selling Freedom, Playing For Time


I picked up a little volatility insurance near the close today.  

My timeframe on this is to the end of March.

It was hard to miss the big non-confirmation in the NDX today.

"The woods decay, the woods decay and fall,
The vapours weep their burthen to the ground,
Man comes and tills the field and lies beneath,
And after many a summer dies the swan."

Alfred Lord Tennyson, Tithonus

I am curious to see which black swan comes home to roost first: Europe or China.

Ed Lazear, the distinguished economist from Stanford, formerly chief economic advisor for G.W. Bush, and now a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, thinks a good approach to immigration reform would be for the US to sell its citizenship on the open market to the highest bidders. 

He was expounding this after the close on Bloomberg television, which is a bastion for all things of the swinish persuasion.  He calls it 'importing human capital.' It sounds remarkably like indentured servitude.

As related by the Wall Street Journal:
"To ensure that not only the wealthy could gain citizenship, the sale of immigration slots could be coupled with a loan program that allows people to borrow the fee and to pay it back out of their earnings over an extended period. To minimize default, the loan payments would be automatically withheld from their paycheck, just as income and payroll taxes are today."

In a similar vein the US could reinstitute a military draft, but sell exemptions to the highest bidder.  And in fairness the government could offer loans to cover the cost of course, adminstered by the Banks of course.  This would have the additional benefit of opening up slots in the National Guard which have formerly been taken up by the idle sons of the wealthy.

There are similar proposals for rationing life saving medical care that are already on the table.

Personal air and water meters implanted at birth?  Think of the possibilities. 

There was a movie written along these lines called In Time.  In it people are fixed with meters that measure out their life.  They are able to buy additional time to live, at market prices.  I wonder if Ed has seen it.  It is the perfect market-based, technological solution for maximizing the output of human capital.
"I have always thought that all men should be free; but if any should be slaves it should be first those who desire it for themselves, and secondly those who desire it for others."

Abraham Lincoln, "Speech to One Hundred Fortieth Indiana Regiment" March 17, 1865
See you on Sunday evening.









Today's Non-Farm Payrolls Report - The Good News, Bad News - Unadjusted Unemployment at 13%


Today's Non-Farm Payrolls report was encouraging despite the downward revision from last month's headline grabbing number, which in part helped make up today's headline grabbing number.

The seasonality adjustment used in this number was out of the normal bounds from past seasonality adjustments. And as one might have anticipated, the Birth Death model added its customary large number of estimated (imaginary) jobs into the mix.

As you know I prefer to look at the trends, rather than the month to month numbers which can be used to manage perception in the market and the public.

The overall trend shows that the US is not faring as badly as if it might have, at least in the short term, under an austerity regime such as that being followed in Europe.

The most encouraging statistics are the steady although somewhat anemic jobs growth, and the upturn, finally, in average pay. I could not find current median pay numbers in a chart, and this is what is most interesting to me as you know.

The Labor Participation Rate continues its decline.  It is a much more significant number than the 'headline' unemployment rate which fluctuates in whom it decides to count as employment-seeking.  

According to Bloomberg if the Labor Participation Rate was maintained as steady from before the financial collapse, and 'discouraged workers were not eliminated, the current unemployment rate in the US would be a little north of 13%.  But as workers get discouraged the government stops counting them as employment seeking, and the Labor Participation Rate falls.

And finally there is Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita, which is as close to median as I could get.  And just for comparison, a chart showing Total Personal Disposable Income from 1921 to 1939, including the secondary recession of 1937 which was due to a policy error in premature Fed tightening from a fear of inflation. 

I think we learned in the 1930's that austerity after a credit bubble induced financial collapse is a destabilizing influence on civil governments.  Or at least that was the case in much of the world back then.  We seem to have forgotten quite a few lessons from history about regulation, reform, and the consequences of extremes in wealth inequality.

There is little doubt that if the nascent recovery falters, the 'sequester' will be blamed, and not the lack of reform and safeguards in the financial sector which caused the most recent financial crisis in the first place, although it was most certainly a key player in the tech bubble and collapse as well. 

One can only speculate that if genuine reform, including restraints on rampant deregulation, had been enacted after the stock market excess of the Tech Bubble, would the people and the world have been spared the Financial Collapse of 2008?  And what is yet to come, most likely out of Europe or China?








Elizabeth Warren: What Level of Criminality Will It Take to Shut Down a Bank, (Mr. President)?


"A court martial, under orders, has just dared to acquit a certain Esterhazy, a supreme insult to all truth and justice. And now the image of France is sullied by this filth, and history shall record that it was under your presidency that this crime against society was committed."

Émile François Zola

How far above the law can Banks and their management go before they will be brought to account, besides a fine that is considered a cost of doing business?

It's a good question asked in the most straight faced, almost naively innocent, manner by Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Apparently amongst the Washington bureaucrats, with regard to any indictments and prosecution of financial matter 'the buck stops' with Eric Holder and his Justice Department.  Without that tool, the regulators can only levy civil fines, although often those fines are only wristslaps.

And the other day Mr. Attorney General Holder said that considerations other than criminality, including instances of brazen and repeated offenses, inhibit the Justice Department from doing their jobs in prosecuting financial crimes. 

Those considerations are the importance of that institution to the economy and the systemic threat that a loss of confidence might provoke.  In other words, size and power, and the fear of the consequences of enforcing the existing laws, much less reform, are at the heart of the Administration's policy towards prosecuting significant financial crimes at the highest levels.   And that policy sets the tone for the economy, and the market's attitudes towards regulation and reform. 

But since Eric Holder is Obama's personal representative, almost certainly acting in consultation on financial matters with the Treasury Secretary, the offensive corruption in the financial sector is the result of the President's policies.   That is also known as moral hazard.  And at this point he has no one else to blame. 

And so Senator Warren might as well ask: "Mr. President, to what level of criminality must a Bank, and its management, rise before you would be willing to allow your Justice Department to indict and prosecute it?  And as an aside, why are you so zealous in prosecuting whistleblowers and reformers, but so tolerant of even extreme examples of white collar financial crime that abets unrelated, non-financial felonies?"

It is doubtful that the mainstream Republicans and Democrats will ever bring anyone to account, because they are as, or even more, complicit in this web of corruption, having been given enormous amounts of money by the Banks in speaking fees and campaign contributions, with the promise of greater amounts for consulting after their terms in office.

And there it is: the credibility trap.   Justice for some. However one wishes to rationalize it, but always in order to preserve it.

Senator Warren may as well have asked, like the childlike innocent, "Why is the Emperor naked?" 

C'est la mode du temps, cherie, c'est la mode.







"A credibility trap is a condition wherein the financial, political and informational functions of a society have been compromised by corruption and fraud, so that the leadership cannot effectively reform, or even honestly address, the problems of that system without impairing and implicating, at least incidentally, a broad swath of the power structure, including themselves.

The status quo tolerates the corruption and the fraud because they have profited at least indirectly from it, and would like to continue to do so. Even the impulse to reform within the power structure is susceptible to various forms of soft blackmail and coercion by the system that maintains and rewards.

And so a failed policy and its support system become self-sustaining, long after it is seen by objective observers to have failed. In its failure it is counterproductive, and an impediment to recovery in the real economy. Admitting failure is not an option for the thought leaders who receive their power from that system.

The continuity of the structural hierarchy must therefore be maintained at all costs, even to the point of becoming a painfully obvious, organized hypocrisy.

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery."

Related:

Treasury and Fed Officials Prevaricate Before Elizabeth Warren - Yves Smith
Failure to Prosecute Is Killing the Economy - Washington's Blog
Drug Possession Warrants Jail Time, But Laundering Billions of Drug Money Doesn't? - Raw Story

07 March 2013

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - A Jekyll & Hyde Market - SP/Gold Ratio


They said on financial TV today that "Bernanke is in control of this market."  Europe does not matter, and the dollar will provide its faithful servants with permanent prosperity.

Stress test results for the Big Banks will be coming.

This is a Jekyll/Hyde market, with Hyde exhibiting complacency, greed, and a brutal arrogance.   But occasionally the market reverts to a timid Jekyll driven primarily by self-loathing and a wanton fear.

Let's see what pops out of the box tomorrow.

The SP/Gold ratio is updated in the last chart.





SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Better Than Blue Skies


The Street is looking for a 'better than expected' Jobs Report tomorrow and a tick down in unemployment.





The Middle Class: Death By a Thousand Cuts - Is Nothing Sacred?


"The corporate right and the political right declared class warfare on working people a quarter of a century ago and they've won... Take the paradox of Rush Limbaugh, ensconced in a Palm Beach mansion massaging the resentments across the country of white-knuckled wage earners, who are barely making ends meet in no small part because of the corporate and ideological forces for whom Rush has been a hero."

Bill Moyers


"The escalation of the class war against the poor and the working class is intense. More and more working people are beaten down. They are world-weary. They are into self-medication. They are turning on each other. They are scapegoating the most vulnerable rather than confronting the most powerful. It is a profoundly human response to panic and catastrophe. I thought Barack Obama could have provided some way out. But he lacks backbone.

Can you imagine if Barack Obama had taken office and deliberately educated and taught the American people about the nature of the financial catastrophe and what greed was really taking place? If he had told us what kind of mechanisms of accountability needed to be in place, if he had focused on homeowners rather than investment banks for bailouts and engaged in massive job creation he could have nipped in the bud the right-wing populism of the tea party folk. The tea party folk are right when they say the government is corrupt. It is corrupt. Big business and banks have taken over government and corrupted it in deep ways.

We have got to attempt to tell the truth, and that truth is painful. It is a truth that is against the thick lies of the mainstream. In telling that truth we become so maladjusted to the prevailing injustice that the Democratic Party, more and more, is not just milquetoast and spineless, as it was before, but thoroughly complicitous with some of the worst things in the American empire."

Cornel West


"Politicians are the public face of corporate power. They are corporate employees. Their personal narratives, their promises, their rhetoric and their idiosyncrasies are meaningless. And that, perhaps, is why the cost of the two presidential campaigns is estimated to reach an obscene $2.5 billion. The corporate state does not produce a product that is different. It produces brands that are different. And brands cost a lot of money to sell...

Unfettered capitalism is a revolutionary force which turns everything into a commodity. Human beings become commodities, the natural world becomes a commodity, that you exploit until exhaustion or collapse...

You can dismiss those of us who will in protest vote for a third-party candidate and invest our time and energy in acts of civil disobedience. You can pride yourself on being practical. You can swallow the false argument of the lesser of two evils.

But ask yourself, once this nightmare starts kicking in, who the real sucker is."

Chris Hedges


"The most sacred of the duties of government is to do equal and impartial justice to all its citizens.”

Thomas Jefferson

Nihilne sanctum est?

Politicians from both sides of the aisle will swear pious oaths to protect and foster the well being of the middle class.  They will say that their policies and proposals are all designed for its betterment.  And yet the state of the middle class continues to dwindle into despair and disrepair. Why is this?

It is not because of the predominance of a right or left ideology, of taxation and deficits and austerity. It is not because of the re-emergence of a perversion of the gospel, in the predestination of prosperity. We have seen all this before. It is not because in our comfort we have lost the sense of the imperative of common cause.

It is because of the overwhelming corruption of power, and of the cynical amorality of thoroughly modern political managers who worship power and personal wealth as ends unto themselves.   They distract the people with artificially divisive social issues and crises, while robbing them blind.

It is driven by the allure of the cartels, monopolies, and  monied interests, and their corrupt political bargains.  It is a child of the subornation of perjury on a massive scale. It is the unscrupulous servility to power of those who have sworn to uphold and protect the law.   What is truth?  Whatever suits us, whatever we say it is, by whoever has the power and the craft to define 'we.'  It is not the triumph of evil so much as the absence of any sense of the good, of honor, honesty, and of simple common decency.

And it is marked by the daily subverting of the law as a matter of convenience and comfort to the insatiable few, and the cravenness of their enablers, driven by personal ambition, ignorance, and fear.  It is the will to power, the elevation of the ascendant self and the system that supports it, above all else.  Greed is good.  Whatever works.  And the enemy is all that is not the self, which is the other.

And where there is nothing sacred, the people perish.





06 March 2013

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Bounce Led By Silver


"Besides the Bank's money, the Bank holds the Title Deeds, and the houses and hotels prior to purchase by the players. The Bank pays salaries and bonuses. It sells and auctions properties and hands out the proper Title Deed cards when purchased by a player, it also sells houses and hotels to the players and loans money when required on mortgages.

The Bank collects all taxes, fines, loans and interest, and the price of all properties which it sells and auctions.

The Bank 'never goes broke.' If the Bank runs out of money, the Banker may issue as much as needed by writing on any ordinary paper."

Official Monopoly® Game Rules, The Bank

Sounds like the spirit of modern fiat money to me.

Despite an intraday 'gut check' of selling that came out of nowhere, the precious metals finished higher, as stocks faded.

Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

I cannot help but notice that Harvey Organ has not updated his site since Saturday. I hope that this is just a work respite, and that he has not encountered any health or personal troubles. His comments are missed, and he is in our thoughts.






SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts


The SP March futures failed at their second attempt today to take out the intermediate measuring objective of 1540, as the tech NDX was a weight on the market.

The Fed Beige book today indicated that QE is failing to stimulate commercial activity and lending. Given that the hot money is being packed in the reserve of the biggest Banks, and used for speculation and bonuses, that is not surprising. Let's call that 'trickle down stimulus.'

Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.






Classic Nor'easter Winter Storm 'Saturn' to Hit New York Area Tonight


It is certainly no Hurricane Sandy but it has dumped over a foot of heavy snow on parts of Virginia so far today.

It has achieved a nice circular rotation. The snowfalls will depend greatly on where the rain/snow lines are drawn by rising late winter temperatures. 

For now it looks like a rain event for most, with some heavy wet snow showing up overnight with the greater accumulations to the south and west of the City.   

We will have to see if it has any impact on NY trading tomorrow.

US National Weather Radar Map





The Week in Economic Data: Another Non Farm Payrolls Friday



It appears as though 'trickle down' stimulus is not having its desired effect according to today's Fed Beige Book.

Fed's Beige Book Fails To Stimulate More Lending - Forbes

Jobs Report on Friday.


Fiat Monetary Theory: The Gamblers


'The Gamblers'
"The historical behavior of interest rates and growth rates in U.S. data suggests that the government can, with a high probability, run temporary budget deficits and then roll over the resulting government debt forever.

The purpose of this paper is to document this finding and to examine its implications. Using a standard overlapping-generations model of capital accumulation, we show that whenever a perpetual rollover of debt succeeds, policy can make every generation better off.

This conclusion does not imply that deficits are good policy, for an attempt to roll over debt forever might fail. But the adverse effects of deficits, rather than being inevitable, occur with only a small probability."

Ball, Elmendorf, Mankiw, The Deficit Gamble

As with most Ponzi schemes, modern fiat currencies are a matter of degree, belief, and tipping points.

There are always limitations in any system, and in paper money systems the debt must be balanced by real growth and investment, an organic growth that makes the rolling debt burden, which is really the basis of the money itself, sustainable and productive.    That growth must be broadly based in order to support consumption from within the system itself, and this implies income commensurate with increasing productivity.

The failure of every fiat currency has been tied to the abuse of power, in the non-organic use of created money not to increase the productive growth of the economy, but to establish monopolies, cartels, speculation, and of course, aggressive war, all in pursuit of the outsized enrichment of a relative few who define themselves as an elite.

And human nature being what it is, all paper money systems have failed within a few hundred years.

There is a variation of  Fiat Monetary Theory, also known as fiat money, which seeks to distinguish itself by its name in addition to its penchant for sophistry, called Modern Monetary Theory.

This variant eliminates the debt problem by switching from a debt based currency to a pure fiat currency issued directly by the government. The longer term problem of currency revulsion, or the rejection by the people of the stated value of the currency, is resolved by greater use of government force.

The resort to force is a tell tale marker of all ideological cults which are unable to achieve a natural stability and an informed, willing acceptance.  That force may include psychological persuasion including propaganda and ridicule.

We are seeing something like this today in Europe, with the compulsion to enforce austerity as the technocrats and careerists refuse to admit that, that by its very design, the Eurozone is inherently unstable. 

And the reforms required to avert disaster are unthinkable, because they will diminish their wealth and power.   And so they become increasingly desperate and self-destructive.

Since the leaders are naturally superior, it is the people that have failed them, because they did not believe enough, work hard enough, sacrifice enough. And so they must be punished.

05 March 2013

The Market Price of Corruption: Real Rates, the Real Yield Curve, and the GDP Gap


"Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country.

When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank...You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out."

Andrew Jackson, Andrew Jackson and the Bank of the United States (1928) by Stan V. Henkels

What is the market price of policy error, careerism, and corruption?

The charts are simple, but the implications are profound.




seign·ior·age  

/ˈsānyərij/
Noun
  1. Profit made by a government by issuing currency
  2. A thing claimed by a sovereign or feudal superior as a prerogative.

Hugo Chavez Is Dead


CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has died after a two-year battle with cancer, ending the socialist leader's 14-year rule of the South American country, Vice President Nicolas Maduro said in a televised speech on Tuesday.

The flamboyant 58-year-old leader had undergone four operations in Cuba for a cancer that was first detected in his pelvic region in mid-2011. His last surgery was on December 11 and he had not been seen in public since.

"It's a moment of deep pain," Maduro, accompanied by senior ministers, said, his voice choking.

Chavez easily won a new six-year term at an election in October and his death will devastate millions of supporters who adored his charismatic style, anti-U.S. rhetoric and oil-financed policies that brought subsidized food and free health clinics to long-neglected slums.

Detractors, however, saw his one-man style, gleeful nationalizations and often harsh treatment of opponents as traits of an egotistical dictator whose misplaced statist economics wasted a historic bonanza of oil revenues.

Chavez's death opens the way for a new election that will test whether his socialist "revolution" can live on without his dominant personality at the helm...

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - We're In the Money - Trickle Down


The central banks have created a new era of permanent prosperity.

All you have to do is believe. And everyone can be rich. Your turn will be coming soon.

One might feel better about the corporate profits and new highs in stocks, and the abundance of bank reserves, most of which is driven by policy and the Fed, if it was not such a transparent attempt to once again approach severe economic problems by using a 'trickle down' approach.

This is going to fail, and the consequences may be quite severe.







SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - New High On Dow Industrials - Blue Skies


Hair of the dog.

No worries mate.

You can stick a fork in Europe, China may be in a bubble, your neighbors may all be unemployed, but Ben has your back.




 



04 March 2013

Chalmers Johnson: End of Empire, Signs of Decay


"History teaches us that the capacity of things to get worse is limitless. Roman history suggests that the short, happy life of the American republic may be coming to its end... [the US will probably] maintain a facade of constitutional government and drift along until financial bankruptcy overtakes it.

Of course, bankruptcy will not mean the literal end of the United States any more than it did for Germany in 1923, China in 1948, or Argentina in 2002-03.

It might, in fact, open the way for an unexpected restoration of the American system, or for military rule or simply for some development we cannot yet imagine. Certainly, such a bankruptcy would mean a drastic lowering of our standard of living, a loss of control over international affairs, a process of adjusting to the rise of other powers, including China and India..."

Chalmers Johnson, Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic, 2007









Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Risk On, and Miners Pounded



"We live in deeds, not years; in thoughts, not breaths;
In feelings, not in figures on a dial.
We should count time by heart-throbs. He most lives
Who thinks most, feels the noblest, acts the best.
And he whose heart beats quickest lives the longest:
Lives in one hour more than in years do some
Whose fat blood sleeps as it slips along their veins.
Life's but a means unto an end; that end,
Beginning, mean, and end to all things—God.
The dead have all the glory of the world.
Why will we live and not be glorious?
We never can be deathless till we die."

Philip James Bailey, Festus

Complacency reigns.

The pounding in some of the miners today was pretty impressive.

The relationship between stocks and the metals are fascinating.

I am still refining my list of mining stocks, but I am not buying here as my price targets are much lower than current prices. I could be wrong on them as I am quite pessimistic about stocks in general, and the miners are catching it from both sides, being metals related. But for now I see no reason to buy.

And I may not get those buys. But this ability to be 'picky' is one of the benefits of having a substantial long term position which one does not touch. You do not feel pressured to buy bottoms or sell tops, because your greater concentration is always on the long term prize.

You may trade around it if you will, but never, ever, give up your position entirely in a bull market.