11 June 2014

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Waiting for Godot


A lot of words, noise, and feverish activity on the surface, but nothing really happened.  The government seems to be permeating even the equity markets and gambling halls of the well-to-do with its self-inflating ennui.

Hell is watching Trish and Matt of Bloomberg TV discussing the real US economy with chief market strategists like David Kelly of JP Morgan on a dull market afternoon.

There was some relief provided by Jonathan Golub of UBS, who shows a deference to reality now and then in his messaging, carried by an engaging charm and a seemingly indefatigable good humour.  Jonah Hill, just glad to be here, to start a progress, swell a scene or two.

Today was definitely a good day to work outside around the yard, so as not to watch the character of the Empire continue to depreciate, if not for the rain. 

Have a pleasant evening.



 



Robert Johnson with Paul Jay: The Convergence of Finance and Politics


As you may know, Robert Johnson is one of my favorite speakers on economic matters. He does not get sufficient exposure, and certainly not on the mainstream media.

Here is an interesting perspective on recent financial history of the US, leading up to the development of our current system of finance and governance. It is an interview on The Real News with Paul Jay. You may find the interviews there with transcripts.

Reality will indeed assert itself at some point. The longer the wait, the great the force required to delay it, and the more dramatic the eventual reversion to the mean, whatever that might ultimately prove to be. It does vary, depending on the selected dataset and how one chooses to measure it.

Some would contend that the natural state of mankind is the dominance of the few and the enslavement of the many. Others would see it as an ever rising and falling impulse to freedom and virtue. Perhaps as Heraclitus contended, the only constant is change.

I will present the next segment on 'breaking the Bank of England' in the next segment as it becomes available.




Here are parts I and II of the same interview which consist largely of Johnson's personal background and development.




Currency War: 140 Years of Monetary History in Ten Minutes


Like most complex subjects reduced to a ten minute summation, there are plenty of nuances lost here, and one might certainly take issue with some of the conclusions. And the perspective of the discussion is largely centered on the US and Europe.

Nevertheless, I like the succinct overview of certain key events in recent world monetary history that lead up to the situation in which we find ourselves today.

Since most people are abysmally ignorant of where we have been, perhaps that is a good place to start once again, for those of you who have not heard this previously.

I would have liked them to have dealt with the gold confiscation and revaluation of 1933, in which FDR used the nation's gold to recapitalize the banking system, and changing the nature of the US currency while devaluing it, but that might have become over complicated. Most do not understand it for what it was, a currency transformation.

People tend to discuss money from an emotional basis, and that is understandable. I don't consider myself a 'hard money' person per se. At this point I would merely wish governments to leave gold and silver alone, and allow them to function as a private market force, co-existing with whatever currency schemes they choose to set up. The monetary authorities struggle with this concept, because they inevitably seem to abuse the currency system and resort to increasing amounts of fraud and force. This is not a facet of government, but of bad government.

I am not in favor of a 'gold standard' for that reason now, because that would merely allow governments to once again monopolize the metals and set the prices artificially in order to control them. Gold cannot cure the corruption in the current political system, and could quickly be turned into a force for more repression. Better that the metals exist as free market alternatives for those who may choose them.

After listening to this presentation, one can surely understand why the central banks both fear and covet gold. It resists their wills, but has a natural tendency to be seen as money.

I do think that the nature of gold, and how it has been used as money over thousands of years, illustrates several important qualities that any sustainable monetary system must emulate and approximate. Those who dabble in monetary theory would do well to understand them.

De Gaulle's words are quite important, and I am glad they include that piece in which Charles de Gaulle speaks to the 'exorbitant privilege' of the US Dollar. The principled objection he is raising is the same question being raised by the BRICs today, and the resolutions being discussed behind the scenes are quite contentious over some of these very issues.

As you know, I suggested one solution would be an SDR, but reconstituted with a more contemporary and inclusive weighting system, together with a mechanism that does not permit the IMF to issue amounts of SDRs at will. The problem is that the IMF is dominated by the status quo and the Banks, and really no single class of people is capable of wielding that sort of discretionary power well for any period of time. So I don't see that happening yet, because an acceptable version of it is being fiercely resisted by the Anglo-American banking cartel. They are content to continue with their looting of the system for the foreseeable future.

Money is power, after all, and greed will too often refuse to relinquish any power or claim willingly, even to its own destruction. The American abuse of financial power for political purposes is causing a bifurcation in global finance, along the expected fault lines, and it will be interesting to see how that develops. 





10 June 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts


Derivative: A security whose price is dependent upon or derived from one or more underlying assets. The derivative itself is merely a contract between two or more parties. Its value is determined by fluctuations in the underlying asset. The most common underlying assets include stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates and market indexes. Most derivatives are characterized by high leverage.

If collateral collected to protect against the risk of counterparty default has been rehypothecated, then it may not be readily available in the event of a default. This, in turn, may increase system interconnectedness and procyclicality, and could amplify market stresses. Therefore, when collateral is rehypothecated, it is important to understand under what circumstances and the extent to which the rehypothecation has occurred; or in other words, how long the collateral chain is.

The gold that left HSBC yesterday turned up in the storage vaults of Scotia Mocatta today.

There were no reports of deliveries or other movement in the warehouses.

The US markets, including the Comex, are almost like a showcase now I think, a kind of Potemkin village of value, a child of the corporate financial state.

Look at all the pretty bullion, see it trade. Look at the prices. But if you wish to buy some, go to Asia and be sure to take delivery.

Even with stocks, it seems to be a web of paper bets, of interconnecting obligations to deliver.  It is an exchange traded, derivative world.

Have a pleasant evening.





SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Wanna Take You Higher


With low volatility and not much in the way of volume or selling pressure it is a relatively trivial exercise for the big trading desks to keep floating prices higher on the technicals.

Not much is expected in the way of economic news until the end of the week.

Have a pleasant evening.




 

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


Very modest premiums to say the least.

I have taken a modest position in Silver Wheaton last week which is not normally commented upon here.

I am still anticipating another shelf offering in PSLV at some point to raise their cash levels back to more comfortable levels. But they are under no duress to do the deal given their existing levels which are adequate for their cash requirements, but are still a bit historically low.