SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Whoops!

Today we got something a little unexpected. I have to admit it caught me by surprise, and brought back at least a little twinge of seller's regret.

Russia's new draft law permitting them to seize foreign assets and to offer compensation for their nationals who suffer from the Western sanctions shook up the markets a bit, starting with some tremors in the Dax, but achieving their full blossom in US equities. The popular indices were down about 1.5 to 2 percent.

Some pointed to the very low durable goods number this morning, which is fashionably dumb. Durable goods is notoriously volatile because of airplane sales. If you back those out of this morning's figures, then the number was not notable. 

 

And AAPL has reported some problems with their new iPhone6.  The cases are bendably thin, and they are having some software problems.  

 

Our market are this fragile?   It was more likely geopolitical jitters triggering profit taking from the tech bubble fostered by debubbling in AAPL and BABA.

And these sorts of big moves are characteristic of the narrow market we are in, as shown by the NDX/RUT and SPX/RUT ratios.

The same line of dumb thinking says that if we get a revision to 2Q GDP tomorrow it might be over 5 percent, and that would prompt the Fed to tighten more quickly next year, due to our remarkable recovery.

A revised 2Q GDP with no supporting trend, a stagnant median wage, and a recovery that is so selective that it is almost embarrassing if you don't spend all your time talking to the 'right class of people.' Are you kidding me? I cannot believe the level of groupthink that possesses the financially aloof and their spokesmodels on financial television. It's pathetic.

The next move of the markets may be lower, and the support levels are obvious. We are still in a formation that looks like a large inverse head and shoulders consolidation. So we would be looking for any market moves that either negate or activate that formation.

So the markets remain risky, but the volumes and market action is 'narrow,' driven significantly by professional trading that is algorithmically driven. So are we in the long managed rally as we saw in the early 2000's or the kind of reckless bubble making we have seen so often since 1987? Probably both since they are children of the same policy errors.

Have a pleasant evening.

Ned Naylor-Leyland Suggests Media Overhanging an Exposé of Rigging in the Silver Markets

This is an excerpt of a statement apparently made by Ned Naylor-Leyland about an article involving alleged evidence presented on silver rigging that has failed to see publication anywhere for a year.  This statement has now appeared in several public places overnight.  A quick email to Ned last night confirmed that it was his.  I have found Ned to be a serious person and highly competent analyst.

Choosing to ignore this would be a decision on my part as much as choosing to ask about it in as polite and as even handed manner one can manage.  I became loosely aware of this yesterday, but decided to take no action here until something appeared 'in print' and in more than one place.

 

William D. Cohan is a highly respected financial journalist who has recently published a book in  April of this year titled The Price of Silence: the Duke Lacrosse Scandal, the Power of the Elite, and the Corruption of our Great Universities”.   He is certainly no stranger to controversy and to telling the truth against opposition.  He is one of my favorite commentators in business journalism.

I have not personally seen the article referenced here, or any of the evidence or facts which it is said to contain.  I do not know Andrew Maguire.  I am not familiar with the particulars of this situation, not in the loop as they say.  I was aware that some whistleblowers had come forward after the CFTC hearing on silver, but was not aware of exactly who they were or what they had to say.  And I do not even know now if this is in fact the basis of this story.

I would have preferred if there had been a statement from Bill Cohan about this before this story was released.  How do we know he has not taken some serious efforts to have his article published against bureaucratic delays?  For a journalist there are legal considerations and fact checking that may not be as paramount for others who are not professional journalists.  But we have also seen these processes abused in order to delay certain stories artificially.    Since this has the appearance of an ongoing conversation it seems probable that he has had the opportunity to comment and has deferred for whatever reason.   But he certainly now ought to say something.  

Have whatever facts involved in this become Mr. Cohan's exclusive property?  If not, how can he become the presumed bottleneck for these revelations?  I can understand the slowness of processes involved in something like this,  but people are aware that other stories have been held until after important elections before by the mainstream media so as not to embarrass any political figures.  

And there are some sensitivities here since the CFTC conducted a four-five year study of price rigging in the silver market, sat on the results over the protests of commissioner Bart Chilton, and then killed the study without issuing any results. 

Despite sincere efforts by some, the regulators have managed their public awareness responsibilities somewhat awkwardly to say the least.  And this is not incidental to their mission but paramount since they are public interest representatives in a publicly funded position.  There is a general aloofness and high-handedness in this Administration that is not consistent with a healthy democratic process. 

And it is not as if market rigging is some sort of outlier that only conspiracy specialists would imagine given all the recent scandals in LIBOR, etc.  One might say that if a market can be profitably rigged this days, then it most likely is.  Former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler is alleged to have said that recently, and it makes sense.  And what the heck does that say about our current markets and their health, given that we are now six years past one of the greatest collapses of a control fraud in the financial markets and have supposedly reformed them, while spending trillions to support them?

Are the ruling elite going to retreat into silence again, and then wait until we forget about this and go away and let them do whatever they want?  Are we at the point when even asking legitimate questions has become a concern?  I should hope not, because then we would be truly lost beyond repair.

The lack of transparency in these matters is therefore a likely precipitant to speculation about what is happening, and what the facts may be, given the overly secret nature of the markets and regulation, and some of the seemingly out-of-the-norm happenings and positions. 

If any of this is being done to promote confidence, then it is surely not being done well.  The US and UK could not have eroded confidence in their markets any more than if had gone out and purposely intended to sow doubts about their integrity in the eyes of the world.

Light is a marvelous remedy for doubts, suspicions and secretiveness.   And impatience is no excuse for incivility, although one can understand how continual stonewalling can grate upon the public temperament.  Let us therefore have some light, please, and less efforts to manage and hide some of the more potentially embarrassing facts or mistaken policies of the past. 

As we have seen so often it is rarely the initial missteps that cause  the most serious problems, but the downfall always seems to be in the subsequent attempts to cover it up, and too often to save someone important some embarrassment, all in the name of 'confidence.'

Is the emperor naked?   Do we dare look?

You may read the entire piece at TFMetals here or at Bill Murphy's site here (free trial available.)

"I very much hope that pressure will now be brought to bear on William D. Cohan to publish the article that he wrote a year ago and is still sitting on; the suppression of this evidence and regulatory collusion is helping to keep this rig going. An investigative financial journalist of repute has looked at the evidence, wrote a long and scathing editorial piece about what happened (a year ago) and yet STILL we sit waiting for discovery or publication of his piece.

While nothing comes of this Precious Metals investors continue to experience real losses, something that is unacceptable to me as an observer aware of the background story. I take no pleasure in naming and shaming in this way, and am heartened that Cohan confirmed and corroborated Andy’s evidence, but now is the time for the pot to be filled and the perpetrators flushed out. If it takes intervention by a third party to set fires in order to get it out there, then so be it."

Ned Naylor-Leyland

 

 Please see:  Mr. Cohan Responds

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

The gold/silver ratio is rather elevated.

The premiums on the non-Sprott funds are also exceptional.

The cash level on Sprott Silver is now surprisingly low.   At some point they will have to consider another offering to raise silver and cash and units outstanding. 

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Options Expiration on the Comex Tomorrow

As a reminder, tomorrow is an option expiration for gold and silver October contracts on the Comex.

There was intraday commentary here. The gold that was smuggled into India the other week is greater than all the registered gold on the Comex. And there is much more upcoming for the festival season.  This is a world of tails wagging dogs.  But they think they have the tails to do it.

I get the sense that the pigmen are scared.  Now what they may fear is another question.  Perhaps they are afraid of spraining their knee from repeatedly kicking the markets in the ass towards whatever direction they prefer at that time. Or perhaps they are staring into the abyss once again, and feeling the edge growing nearer.  It is hard to say. 

There was further intraday commentary here introducing a video from Nomi Prins about why the Anglo-Americans have such a keen interest in certain locales like the Ukraine and Syria she calls 'gateways.'   

There was nothing much of interest happening yesterday on the carney game called the Comex, that paragon of transparent price discovery. hah!

 

The Gold/Silver ratio is an eye popping 68.9.   And silver is about as consistently oversold as I have seen it.  I will be looking for another buy point here for my silver positions.

It is hard not to suspect that there is more to many of these things than meets the eye.  We have been lied to so consistently that it does well to maintain a very active skepticism about all these things that don't add up, and seem to come at us out of nowhere.

The professionals have taken over the management of the country and the economy, and they are not inclined to discuss the issues with common shareholders, much less the unimportant person on the street who is walking around waving an empty wallet and a pretty much meaningless vote.

Time to get your hearts and heads right.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Wall Street Celebrates

New home sales came in seasonally hot this morning.

Wall Street took the opportunity to start a new wash cycle going, and stocks were in rally mode most of the day, with the SP futures leading the charge higher.

My seller's regret on that big volatility position I unloaded the other day was greatly exaggerated. lol.

So what next?

Alibaba has been successfully taken to market, with about $300 or more million going into Wall Street's pocket.  And so the Banks bid its investors farewell and good luck.  .

Western leaders are doing as they are told, and all the enablers are behaving, from the courts to the academies.

The masters of disasters are back in the driver's seat again.

What could go wrong?

Have a pleasant evening.

Bye bye Alibaba!   We win again!  Yay us!

50 Tonnes In Ten Days: Gold Smuggling Overwhelms Government Restrictions In India

So much for the mainstream media reports of a waning interest in gold in India and elsewhere.

To put this into perspective, there are just under 32 tonnes of total registered gold on the Comex. 

USAToday did a rerun of 'Why Warren Buffett Hates Gold' the other day. 

Few outside the dollarsphere are listening anymore, or care.    

Things are certainly warming up.  The mispricing of risk is formidable.

The entire story can be read here.

Hindustan Times
50 tonne gold smuggled into India in 10 days, 30% reached Mumbai
By Manish Pachouly
Mumbai, September 23, 2014

About 50 tonnes of gold has been smuggled into the country in the past 10 days, and subsequently taken into the market to cater to a surge in demand for the precious metal in the festive season. There is a heavy demand for gold during Dussehra, for which booking and supply will start from Thursday, when shradh ends and Navratri starts.

Market sources said that 30% of the smuggled gold has been supplied in Mumbai to unscrupulous jewelers, while the rest was distributed to different parts of the country.

Sources said that illegal gold is finding a place in the market because of below average imports resulting from the 80:20 scheme and 10% import duty. Against the average monthly demand of 80 tonnes, the import is presently around 51 tonnes in the country.

Sources said that gold was smuggled into the country through the land route, via Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Pakistan. “This is because airports have tightened security, restricting the smuggling of gold by the air route,” said a market expert. The Mumbai airport customs, which has started a serious crackdown on gold smugglers, has seized around 529 kg gold from April to August this financial year.

Experts fear that more gold will be smuggled from similar land routes in days to come, as the demand will shoot up once the marriage season begins, in the later part of November. “There will be huge demand because of the festive season, and also the low price at which gold is presently being traded,” said Kumar Jain, vice-president of Mumbai Jewelers' Association.

Jain said, “The government should immediately bring down the import duty and relax the 80:20 scheme, so that official import goes up. That will bring down the smuggling.”

Rajiv Popley, director Popley Group, said, “Smuggling of gold has been on the rise for the last eight months, due to irrational supply issues. The officially available gold was at a premium, which was higher than anywhere else in the world.”

Nomi Prins: Why Is the US So Interested In the Ukraine and Syria

"Why do we care about the Ukraine? We care about Ukraine because it’s a gateway to oil. It’s a gateway to Eastern Europe. It’s a gateway to control a situation politically, but also for our banking system to get involved from a financial perspective...

Nobody really wants to have a third world war. That’s expensive and deadly, but this fighting over financial and political gain is really continuing to crescendo. It is crescendoing because there is so much money on the table and because the economies involved, ours, China’s, Russia’s, are really all weaker than any government wants to admit on the surface.”

Nomi Prins, Iraq, Syria and Ukraine-Financial Gateways


"War is madness. Even today, after the second failure of another world war, perhaps one can speak of a third war, one fought piecemeal, with crimes, massacres, destruction. In today's world, behind the scenes, there are interests, geopolitical strategies, lust for money and power, and there is the manufacture and sale of arms.  And these have engraved on their hearts, 'what does it matter to me?'.”

Francis I, Memorial of the Hundred Thousand at Redipuglia, 13 September 2014

What does it matter to me? Am I my brother's keeper? This is the mark of Cain.

In this interview below Nomi Prins is suggesting that under the guise of humanitarianism and freedom, the Anglo-Americans are pursuing an age old colonialism with a modern financial twist.  And that pursuit is manifesting in 'gateways' or friction points where its expansion meets some countervailing force.

The notion of taking and controlling 'gateways' is interesting.  These could be seen as the current areas of action in the ongoing currency wars, which are merely exercises in financial power.  The geographic importance of the gateways reminds one of strategic points of control based on topography and supply lines in the last century. 

Now we have the flow of money and debt to consider as well as the ability to set prices and value.

If a fiat currency becomes like a Ponzi scheme, without growth underpinned by organic economic activity, it must continually expand or endure the risk of collapse.  The ability to enforce a valuation becomes paramount.

The reason that the US dollar has become a Ponzi scheme is because of the utterly artificial and unsustainable recovery that has been created.  Inequality of opportunity, wealth and justice is the hallmark of aristocracy, oligarchy, and all the empires of the past in which a narrow group of people skew the economic performance of the economy for their own benefit.

The choice has apparently been made to engage the world in financialisation, which has had its way with many of the developing countries, and is now confronting opposition from competing forces in more distant lands where it seeks to expand.

You can see the write up and view the original source of this Nomi Prins interview at USAWatchdog here.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Prisoner's Dilemma, Bureaucrats Agonistes

“The dove descending breaks the air

With flame of incandescent terror

Of which the tongues declare

The one discharge from sin and error.

The only hope, or else despair

Lies in the choice of pyre or pyre-

To be redeemed from fire by fire.

Who then devised the torment? Love.

Love is the unfamiliar Name

Behind the hands that wove

The intolerable shirt of flame

Which human power cannot remove.

We only live, only suspire

Consumed by either fire, or fire.”

T.S. Eliot, Four Quartets

"And he led him up to the highest place, and showed him the kingdoms of the world and all their splendours."

Matt 4:8

If you are not familiar with the classic game theory example of The Prisoner's Dilemma you may read about it here.

I see quite a few instances in the world today that seem like the types of standoffs as described in that example of two people who can broadly benefit if they come to an agreement, or both suffer if one or the other seeks a short term advantage.

The Ukraine, Syria, Israel, the Congress, the great inequality in the US economy. The examples are almost everywhere. It seems as though working for some broader benefit, and engaging in productive compromise, is out of temper in this utterly selfish, morally purblind world of ours.

For me the most interesting aspect of The Prisoner's Dilemma is watching the Western Central Banks trying to come to terms with their unsustainable positions in the monetary metals markets, vis a vis the BRICS.

Certainly no one in some better, more objective future will view an ulta-easy monetary policy for the Banks combined with domestic fiscal austerity for the people as anything short of a bizarre form of policy error, bordering on malpractice if not sadism.

The notion of giving free money to the very entities that caused the recent financial crisis, while saying nothing while the fiscal authorities do little or even punish their innocent victims, requires a monumental ability to rationalize the unthinkable for the benefit of one's career.

Well, perhaps the economic class is just following that one divine commandment of the modern order: Thou shalt not speak ill of insiders. Even when the ruling class begins acting like the Captain in The Caine Mutiny.

China, and to a lesser extent Russia, have the Banks by the short hairs. And you know exactly what I mean by this. He who sells what isn't his'n, must make it good, or go to prison. And they don't know how and who to stick with the tab for their folly.  And to take responsibility is off the table.

So the Banks and their high priests are refusing to come to terms with their counterparts in the international currency regime based on the principle that the truly powerful never concede any substantial and recurring advantage. 

 

Besides, they have become so used to controlling the world's reserve currency that they cannot imagine any life without it.  What is an empire without power?  And bureaucrats charged with the public trust have been caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place of their sworn duties and the political puppet masters.

Always, it is that terrible choice, no matter how they might phrase it.  All who assume high office must decide.  Whom do you serve?   

Truth is the only recourse from their error, but that option does not make the short list of the things that our moderns' love.  Truth does not serve power well, or the will to have it all. This is the credibility trap.  This is the wheel of fire to which we are bound.

And the pressure continues to build, day by day, with the reckoning's choice between fire, and fire.

Have a pleasant evening.