Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Brother, You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

"In a society built largely on confidence, with real wealth expressed more or less inaccurately by pieces of paper, the entire fabric of economic stability threatened to come toppling down."

New York World, October 25, 1929


"In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could."

Rudy Dornbusch

Next week is a Thanksgiving Holiday week in the states, as the markets will be closed on Thursday and a light session on Friday.

Metals Option Expiration is next Tuesday. December is a big delivery month.

Several people have mentioned that the bankruptcy of MF Global takes a lot of large specs out of play for this delivery, with their positions trashed and funds frozen in both gold and silver.   And the failure of MF Global was a 'hit' or some ploy by the Wall Street wiseguys to break the speculative longs in the metals and take down the biggest retail futures firm that arranges physical delivery.  Talk about going the extra mile.

I don't know about that one, but wait until a major exchange defaults on some commodity like silver, and then forces cash settlements on the position holders at a price the big exchange members dictate.  And maybe not even in cash, but some kind of paper markers. If you don't think this can happen then you have not been reading enough about US market history.

That should set a few more minds free of their illusions about fair and efficient markets..

The Super-Committee has its deadline next week and a good resolution seems unlikely, which is what most expect. Obama helped to set this impasse up by extending the Bush tax cuts at the beginning of 2011, which are now a major sticking point.

I have an open mind to the theory that this is a bit of chess, with Defense Department cuts being set up by default if no resolution is reached, although they will only start in 2013. 

Most politicians are loathe to put military spending cuts on the table and take responsibility for them. A failure by the Super-Comm makes the cuts 'automatic.'

Headline risk in European sovereign debt remains very elevated.

I remain in a paired trade of short stocks and long bullion.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Going the Way of AIG with Dollar Holders as Patsies

The Guidotti-Greenspan rule states that a nation's reserves should equal short-term (one-year or less maturity) external (foreign) debt, implying a ratio of reserves-to-short term debt of 1. The rationale is that countries should have enough reserves to resist a massive withdrawal of short term foreign capital.

The rule is named after Pablo Guidotti – Argentine former deputy minister of finance – and Alan Greenspan –former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of the United States. Guidotti first stated the rule in a G-33 seminar in 1999, while Greenspan widely publicized it in a speech at the World Bank (Greenspan, 1999).

Guzman Calafell and Padilla del Bosque (2002) found that the ratio of reserves to external debt is a relevant predictor of an external crisis.

This is an interesting application of the Greenspan-Guidotti Rule by Porter Stansberry below because it includes the value of the gold at market prices, as well as the oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and all the foreign reserves on the books of the US against the total foreign debt owed in using the Greenspan-Guidotti rule for its default assessment.

Those who argue for a stronger dollar because of deflation due to domestic credit destruction overlook the reality of the yawning imablance of US debt to external creditors, and the need to deal with it without writing it off like a home mortage.

Yes, the US has lots of buildings, and minerals in the ground, and forests and proprietary software, and overpriced financial assets, and tranches of dodgy mortgages to sell. We are discussing AAA liquid assets here, without significant counterparty risk. Those peddling US debt instruments to Asia these days are getting a very cold reception.

What Porter Stansberry says is valid, with the important exception that the US still owns the world's reserve currency. Otherwise it would be well on its way to a hyperinflationary climax.

This is why we do not expect the default to be like the Lehman Brothers over-weekend implosion, nor as dramatic as the crisis in Dubai, or more historically the failure of the post-Soviet Russia. The US is too big to fail.

The dollar will devalue to unexpected lows, not with a bang but a whimper.

More AIG than Lehman, with high profile big-talking executives, self-serving accounting, bonuses to the perpetrators, de facto bailout and subsidies from frightened central bankers, and all that until the rest of the world can adjust. The US will most likely wallow in stagflation until it can get itself together again, barring a global conflict.

There are structural issues for sure. The US is still the consumer of the world's export products, especially manufactured goods. The problem is that they are paying for it with paper that is increasingly worthless. And it is militarily the only remaining superpower.

Do not expect this to be a straightfoward default. The US money center banks are wielding weapons of financial mass destruction, and are not afraid of gooning it up in the markets for real products, as they still exercise significant pricing power.

It may be our currency, but it's your problem.'' John Connolly, Treasury Secretary, in response to European anger at the 1971 US gold default

So, it will take time for the exporting nations to grow their domestic markets, and to find new customers at home and abroad. It will take time for the nations to agree on a new currency regime, as the US has now pulled the rug out from under them once again with the quantitative easing of the dollar. But that adjustment effort is now well underway. With regard to change, "It is not necessary to change. Your survival is not mandatory." - W. Edwards Deming

The downside of structural change after a long decline is that once it occurs, it is difficult to obtain one's prior reputation and position.

"When governments go bankrupt it's called "a default." Currency speculators figured out how to accurately predict when a country would default. Two well-known economists - Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti - published the secret formula in a 1999 academic paper. That's why the formula is called the Greenspan-Guidotti rule.

The rule states: To avoid a default, countries should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term foreign debt maturities. The world's largest money management firm, PIMCO, explains the rule this way: "The minimum benchmark of reserves equal to at least 100% of short-term external debt is known as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. Greenspan-Guidotti is perhaps the single concept of reserve adequacy that has the most adherents and empirical support."

The principle behind the rule is simple. If you can't pay off all of your foreign debts in the next 12 months, you're a terrible credit risk. Speculators are going to target your bonds and your currency, making it impossible to refinance your debts. A default is assured.

So how does America rank on the Greenspan-Guidotti scale? It's a guaranteed default.

The U.S. holds gold, oil, and foreign currency in reserve. The U.S. has 8,133.5 metric tonnes of gold (it is the world's largest holder). That's 16,267,000 pounds. At current dollar values, it's worth around $300 billion. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve shows a current total position of 725 million barrels. At current dollar prices, that's roughly $58 billion worth of oil. And according to the IMF, the U.S. has $136 billion in foreign currency reserves. So altogether... that's around $500 billion of reserves. Our short-term foreign debts are far bigger."

Porter Stansberry, The bankruptcy of the United States is now certain

Morgan Stanley Fears UK Default in 2010

As you may recall we are bears on sterling, and view the UK as the Iceland of the G20.

The monetary policies of the Bank of England were as bad as those of the Greenspan - Bernanke Fed. The difference is that the UK does not hold the world's reserve currency as a captive source of revenues.

As an aside, we see that Bank of England advisor and economic franc-tireur Willem Buiter has decided to seek greener pastures as chief economist with Citi in the States. Timely exit. Bravo, Willem.

It is sad to see a great people brought low by irresponsible leadership and economic recklessness. Perhaps there will be a movement to bring in a reform government. Hint, ask for details first, as the Yanks are finding out to their dismay as they experience continuity they can hardly believe.

UK Telegraph
Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
4:09PM GMT 30 Nov 2009

Britain risks becoming the first country in the G10 bloc of major economies to risk capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis over coming months, according to a client note by Morgan Stanley.

The US investment bank said there is a danger Britain’s toxic mix of problems will come to a head as soon as next year, triggered by fears that Westminster may prove unable to restore fiscal credibility.

“Growing fears over a hung parliament would likely weigh on both the currency and gilt yields as it would represent something of a leap into the unknown, and would increase the probability that some of the rating agencies remove the UK's AAA status,” said the report, written by the bank’s European investment team of Ronan Carr, Teun Draaisma, and Graham Secker.

In an extreme situation a fiscal crisis could lead to some domestic capital flight, severe pound weakness and a sell-off in UK government bonds. The Bank of England may feel forced to hike rates to shore up confidence in monetary policy and stabilize the currency, threatening the fragile economic recovery,” they said.

Morgan Stanley said that such a chain of events could drive up yields on 10-year UK gilts by 150 basis points. This would raise borrowing costs to well over 5pc - the sort of level now confronting Greece, and far higher than costs for Italy, Mexico, or Brazil.

High-grade debt from companies such as BP, GSK, or Tesco might command a lower risk premium than UK sovereign debt, once an unthinkable state of affairs.

A spike in bond yields would greatly complicate the task of funding Britain’s budget deficit, expected to be the worst of the OECD group next year at 13.3pc of GDP.

Investors have been fretting privately for some time that the Bank might have to raise rates before it is ready -- risking a double-dip recession, and an incipient compound-debt spiral – but this the first time a major global investment house has issued such a stark warning.

No G10 country has seen its ability to provide emergency stimulus seriously constrained by outside forces since the credit crisis began. It is unclear how markets would respond if they began to question the efficacy of state power.

Morgan Stanley said sterling may fall a further 10pc in trade-weighted terms. This would complete the steepest slide in the pound since the industrial revolution, exceeding the 30pc drop from peak to trough after Britain was driven off the Gold Standard in cataclysmic circumstances in 1931.

UK equities would perform reasonably well. Some 65pc of earnings from FTSE companies come from overseas, so they would enjoy a currency windfall gain.

While the report – “Tougher Times in 2010” – is not linked to the Dubai debacle, it is a reminder that countries merely bought time during the crisis by resorting to fiscal stimulus and shunting private losses onto public books. The rescues – though necessary – have not resolved the underlying debt problem. They have storied up a second set of difficulties by degrading sovereign debt across much of the world...

Latvia Goes "No Bid"

This bears watching. It may be nothing on the grander stage, but then again, there is a precedent for small events to trigger larger actions and reactions.

Latvia on the brink
By MarketWatch
Oct. 7, 2009, 10:04 a.m.

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- It's never good news when a government bond auction fails. It's particularly bad news when an auction fails for a note maturing in just six months. And it's really bad news when there isn't any bid at all.

Yet that's what happened Wednesday when Latvia tried to sell close to $17 million of paper. It's not hard to figure out why.

The Baltic country is squabbling with Western -- mostly Swedish -- leaders over spending cuts, and it's a very real possibility that the country may be forced to devalue its euro-pegged currency if emergency global funds don't arrive.

Were Latvia to devalue, that would hit economies in neighboring countries like Lithuania, and Swedish banks would rack up additional losses on the loans they have made throughout the region.

The real nightmare scenario would be the Swedish banks then pulling down other European banks, and then triggering Credit Crunch: Part 2.

There is, of course, a long way before that unwieldy scenario comes to pass. Latvia hasn't devalued -- yet - and, even if it does, that doesn't mean it would drag the Swedish banks under.

Lenders like Swedbank which has more branches in the Baltic countries and Ukraine than in Sweden -- have endured plenty of losses, and Swedbank, for one, just raised more than $2 billion to weather stormier times. See earlier story.

Still, investors might recall a minor matter involving teaser loans that only took down the entire world economy.

Not every domino falls. But there's one that's looking shaky.

United States Postal Service Faces October Default Along With...

This is making the rounds, so we thought we might include both this article and its source article, with some commentary.

The postal unions are raising red flags, and using the "D" (default) word to bring attention to a gap in the forward funding of their retirement benefits which they see coming in the autumn.

Most federal agencies pay their retirement costs as they are incurred. The Postal Service pre-funds their projected retirement benefit costs a few years in advance.

The issue here with the unions is a bit bigger than just the September preparyment. The Postal Service has funds set aside for future retirement costs in a way that is similar to Social Security. Indeed, one might think of this system as their version of Social Security.

There is about $32 billion set aside (on paper) for their needs. The unions would like the postal service to get access to that money now. Think of it as taking the Social Security Trust Fund out of the Treasury and making it available for management by some private entity now.

What's the issue? Since the system has been in place for so long, and only now is such a fuss being raised, there is an obvious fear on the part of the Postal Employees of a government default and a devaluation of their pension fund, along with Social Security.

Make sense? I think it does when viewed in that light. Employees close to the government are fearful of a general default at the end of September that will erode the value of their own Pension Trust Fund.

There are other explanations of course. Union Management may wish to take over the management of their $32 billion pension fund to allow some of the Wall Street banks to help them 'improve earnings' and generate hefty fees.

The fear of default driven by rumours circulating amongst Federal employees and their kin makes a bit more sense, but we will not know for certain until the fall.

My Federal Retirement
USPS May Be Unable to Make Payroll in October and Retiree Health Plan Costs, Unions' Letter to White House Says
July 19, 2009

On July 14, unions representing United States Postal Service (USPS) workers wrote the White House with "extreme urgency" asking for a meeting to address lack of funding for both employee payroll in October and health benefits for retired employees.

The letter, which the FederalTimes.com blog provided a scanned copy late last week, says:

"[USPS] top executives are now saying that the USPS will default on a $5.4 billion payment to prefund future retiree health benefits on September 30, 2009. And its government affairs representative are now telling Congressional staff that the Postal Service may not be able to make payroll in October and will be forced to issue IOUs instead."

The letter was co-signed by the presidents of the American Postal Workers Union, National Rural Letter Carriers' Association, National Association of Letter Carriers and National Postal Mailhandlers Union, and sent to White House Deputy Chief of Staff, Jim Messina.

GovExec.com reported more on the letter in this column on July 17 which is included here below:

Postal unions seek White House help on pay, benefits
By Carrie Dann
CongressDaily
July 17, 2009

Four unions representing the nation's postal workers are pleading for a meeting with the White House to address possible funding shortfalls for workers' payroll and retiree health benefits, according to a letter obtained by CongressDaily.

The presidents of the American Postal Workers Union, National Rural Letter Carriers' Association, National Association of Letter Carriers and National Postal Mailhandlers Union co-signed the Tuesday letter to White House Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina, warning that the U.S. Postal Service is at risk of defaulting on a $5.4 billion payment to prefund retiree health benefits at the end of September.

The letter alleges that USPS "may not be able to make payroll in October and will be forced to issue IOUs instead."

Yvonne Yoerger, a spokeswoman for USPS, confirmed that the unions wrote the letter but disputed the claim that payroll deadlines will be missed.

"That's not something that's been discussed at all," she said. "We are committed to making payroll."

Yoerger said USPS will continue to work with OMB and the Office of Personnel Management to determine if and how the Postal Service can meet the Sept. 30 deadline to pay forward $5.4 billion in future health liability costs.

The Postal Service is required by law to set aside funds for future retiree health care costs, rather than paying recipients as costs are incurred as other government agencies do. As a result of a $3 billion loss to date this year, the unions wrote, no money is available for those future payments, and regular payroll deadlines may not be met unless other funds are tapped.

"Such a [financial] collapse can be averted without resort to a taxpayer bailout by reforming the retiree health prefunding provisions of the law and [by] giving the Postal Service access to its own resources in the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund, which now has a balance of $32 billion," the unions wrote.

But that transfer of funds would require congressional approval, and the unions fear that pressure from the White House will be needed to prompt quick action. "We believe that the Obama administration must intervene now to avoid both a political and economic train wreck," they wrote.

Reps. John McHugh, R-N.Y., and Danny Davis, D-Ill., introduced legislation this year that would amend the law to allow USPS to reach deeper into the flush Retiree Health Benefits Fund, but the unions argue the measure would not do enough to fix the financial problems.

MGM Mirage May Go Into Default

"MGM Mirage says it may break loan covenants this year unless more people gamble."

Is nothing sacred? LOL

There are a more tha a few brokerages behind them on this default curve as the punters start hitting the wall, and the loose money in the speculating economy continues to flow into the black hole of the money center banks.


AP
MGM Mirage casino company says it may default on debt
By Oskar Garcia, Associated Press Writer
Tuesday March 3, 5:23 pm ET

Casino company MGM Mirage says it may break loan covenants this year unless more people gamble

LAS VEGAS (AP) -- Casino operator MGM Mirage says it believes it will break loan convenants this year unless the economy turns around and more people gamble.

The Las Vegas-based casino operator said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Tuesday that it will delay filing its annual report because it is still assessing its financial position and liquidity needs.

MGM Mirage says that if it breaks its covenants to lenders, it will default on its senior credit facility. The company says it has asked to modify the credit facility but doesn't know yet whether its terms will change.

MGM Mirage says its annual report will likely contain a report from its independent accountants about MGM Mirage's ability to continue as a company.

Japanese Economist Urges Selective Default on US Treasury Debt

Here is an intriguing proposal for a 'selective default' of US Treasury debt to head off a massive devaluation of the dollar, and to promote the US recovery from the ravages of its self-inflicted financial damage.

No matter how one wishes to describe it, the US will have to default on its sovereign debt, most likely on a selective basis, writing down the rest through an inflated dollar. The Japanese recognize this and are volunteering a tentative plan to accomplish it to support their industrial policy.

Although there is a potential for a voluntary debt forgiveness from Japan as a loyal client state, we wonder if the rest of the world will be inclined to accept an unreformed dollar hegemony.

Can the economic world so woefully lack the will, knowledge, and the imagination to develop a more equitable mechanism for international trade?

Financial reforms, although not even on the table yet, are certain to come with any sustained recovery. There has been nothing even seriously proposed yet as Bernanke and Paulson rush to supply fresh capital to prop up the status quo and aid their cronies on Wall Street.

We can surely do better than this.


Bloomberg
Japan Should Scrap U.S. Debt; Dollar May Plummet, Mikuni Says
By Stanley White and Shigeki Nozawa

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japan should write-off its holdings of Treasuries because the U.S. government will struggle to finance increasing debt levels needed to dig the economy out of recession, said Akio Mikuni, president of credit ratings agency Mikuni & Co.

The dollar may lose as much as 40 percent of its value to 50 yen or 60 yen from the current spot rate of 90.40 today in Tokyo unless Japan takes “drastic measures” to help bail out the U.S. economy, Mikuni said. Treasury yields, which are near record lows, may fall further without debt relief, making it difficult for the U.S. to borrow elsewhere, Mikuni said. (We struggle a bit with the notion of Treasury yields falling without a substantial debt relief. One would think they would be increasing to uncomfortable levels as the risk of an involuntary default increases, unless the Fed plans to aggressively monetize them to peg the yield curve, trashing the Dollar in the process. - Jesse)

“It’s difficult for the U.S. to borrow its way out of this problem,” Mikuni, 69, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television broadcast today. “Japan can help by extending debt cancellations.” (We seem to have surpassed the Ponzi viability boundary. - Jesse)

The U.S. budget deficit may swell to at least $1 trillion this fiscal year as policy makers flood the country with $8.5 trillion through 23 different programs to combat the worst recession since the Great Depression. Japan is the world’s second-biggest foreign holder of Treasuries after China.

The U.S. government needs to spend on infrastructure to maintain job creation as it will take a long time for banks to recover from $1 trillion in credit-market losses worldwide, Mikuni said. The U.S. also needs to launch public works projects as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut to a range of zero to 0.25 percent on Dec. 16. won’t stimulate consumer spending because households are paying down debt, he said. (One would look for policies to increase the median hourly wage to facilitate this. So far we are seeing nothing, if not the opposite, to support this. - Jesse)

U.S. President-elect Barack Obama wants to create 3 million jobs over the next two years, more than the 2.5 million jobs originally planned, an aide said on Dec. 20. Obama takes office on Jan. 20.

Marshall Plan

Japan should also invest in U.S. roads and bridges to support personal spending and secure demand for its goods as a global recession crimps trade, Mikuni said.

Japan’s exports fell 26.7 percent in November from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said on Dec. 22. That was the biggest decline on record as shipments of cars and electronics collapsed.

Combining debt waivers with infrastructure spending would be similar to the Marshall Plan that helped Europe rebuild after the destruction of World War II, Mikuni said.

“U.S. households simply won’t have the same access to credit that they’ve enjoyed in the past,” he said. “Their demand for all products, including imports, will suffer unless something is done.”

The plan was named after George Marshall, the U.S. secretary of state at the time, and provided more than $13 billion in grants and loans to European countries to support their import of U.S. goods and the rebuilding of their industries

Currency Reserves

The Japanese government could use a new Marshall Plan as a chance to shrink its $976.9 billion in foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s second-largest after China’s, and help reduce global economic imbalances, Mikuni said.

The amount of foreign assets held by the Japanese government and the private sector total around $7 trillion, Mikuni said.

Japan will also have to accept that a stronger yen is good for the country in order to reduce excessive trade surpluses and deficits, he said. The yen has appreciated 23 percent versus the dollar this year, the most since 1987, as the credit crisis prompted investors to flee riskier assets and repay loans in the Japanese currency.

“Japan’s economic model has been dependent on external demand since the Meiji Period” that began in 1868, Mikuni said. “The model where the U.S. relies on overseas borrowing to fuel its property market is over. A strong yen will spur Japanese domestic spending and reduce import prices, thereby increasing purchasing power.”

Here Comes a Second Wave of Defaults and Losses

Incoming.

HousingWire
Fitch: Alt-A Mortgages Deteriorating More Rapidly than Expected
By PAUL JACKSON
December 15, 2008

Citing “a rapid deterioration of U.S. Alt-A RMBS performance,” Fitch Ratings again took the hatchet to its previous assumptions for Alt-A mortgages on Monday morning, revising its surveillance methodology and updating loss projections for all U.S. Alt-A RMBS.

Fitch said it now expects losses on all Alt-A collateral to far exceed the estimates of its ‘moderate stress’ scenario in its late ratings update earlier this year. “Market developments, ongoing home-price declines and loan performance trends in the Alt-A sector over the prior six months have effectively eliminated the possibility of this stress scenario,” said Fitch in a statement.

The rating agency said it now expects average cumulative losses om 2005, 2006 and 2007 vintage Alt-A transactions to hit 2.72, 6.78 and 9.58 percent, respectively, up dramatically from expectations at the agency earlier this year.

Fitch cited a “rapid increase in 60+ day delinquencies experienced over the past six months,” despite servicers’ collective efforts to hold off on actual foreclosure sales — likely implying that a halt to foreclosures is having little effect in resolving borrower delinquencies. Between May and October 2008, Fitch said that 60+ day delinquencies for the 2007 vintage increased from 8.80 percent to 14.65 percent; 2006 and 2005 vintages also experienced steep increases rising from 10.30 percent to 14.24 percent and 6.57 percent to 8.79 percent, respectively.

While delinquencies are continuing to pile up, cumulative losses are not — at least, not yet.. “The small increase in cumulative losses relative to the rising level of 60+ day delinquencies reflects, in part, the lengthening foreclosure/liquidation timeline being experienced throughout all vintages,” analysts at the agency wrote.

All of which means that it’s time to get ready for a whole new slew of downgrades to Alt-A in the coming few weeks. Fitch warned in its note Monday that it expects that it will downgrade many senior bonds to below investment grade — just in time for fourth quarter earnings.

Is the Fed Taking the First Steps to Selective Default and Devaluation?

We have been looking for an out-of-the-box move from the Fed, but this was not what we had expected.

The obvious game changing move would have been for the Treasury and the Fed to make an arrangement in which the Fed is able to purchase Treasury debt directly without subjecting it to an auction in the public market first. This is known as 'a money machine' and is prohibited by statute.

But as usual the Fed surprises us all with their lack of transparency. They are asking Congress about permission to issue their own debt directly, not tied to Treasuries.

This is known in central banking circles as 'cutting out the middleman.' Not only does the Treasury no longer issue the currency, but they also no longer have any control over how much debt backed currency the Fed can now issue directly.

If the Fed were able to issue its own debt, which is currently limited to Federal Reserve Notes backed by Treasuries under the Federal Reserve Act, it would provide Bernanke the ability to present a different class of debt to the investing public and foreign central banks.

The question is whether it would be backed with the same force as Treasuries, or is subordinated, or superior.

There will not be any lack of new Treasury debt issuance upon which to base new Fed balance sheet expansion. The notion that there might be a debt generation lag out of Washington in comparison with what the Fed issues as currency is almost frightening in its hyperinflationary implications.

This makes little sense unless the Fed wishes to be able to set different rates for their debt, and make it a different class, and whore out our currency, the Federal Reserve notes, without impacting the sovereign Treasury debt itself, leaving the door open for the issuance of a New Dollar.

What an image. The NY Fed as a GSE, the new and improved Fannie and Freddie. Zimbabwe Ben can simply print a new class of Federal Reserve Notes with no backing from Treasuries. BenBucks. Federal Reserve Thingies.

Perhaps we're missing something, but this looks like a step in anticipation of an eventual partial default or devaluation of US debt and the dollar.


Wall Street Journal
Fed Weighs Debt Sales of Its Own
By JON HILSENRATH and DAMIAN PALETTA
DECEMBER 10, 2008

Move Presents Challenges: 'Very Close Cousins to Existing Treasury Bills'

The Federal Reserve is considering issuing its own debt for the first time, a move that would give the central bank additional flexibility as it tries to stabilize rocky financial markets.

Government debt issuance is largely the province of the Treasury Department, and the Fed already can print as much money as it wants. But as the credit crisis drags on and the economy suffers from recession, Fed officials are looking broadly for new financial tools.

The Federal Reserve drained $25 billion in temporary reserves from the banking system when it arranged overnight reverse repurchase agreements.

Fed officials have approached Congress about the concept, which could include issuing bills or some other form of debt, according to people familiar with the matter.

It isn't known whether these preliminary discussions will result in a formal proposal or Fed action. One hurdle: The Federal Reserve Act doesn't explicitly permit the Fed to issue notes beyond currency.

Just exploring the idea underscores many challenges the ongoing problems are creating for the Fed, as well as the lengths to which the central bank is going to come up with new ideas.

At the core of the deliberations is the Fed's balance sheet, which has grown from less than $900 billion to more than $2 trillion since August as it backstops new markets like commercial paper, money-market funds, mortgage-backed securities and ailing companies such as American International Group Inc.

The ballooning balance sheet is presenting complications for the Fed. In the early stages of the crisis, officials funded their programs by drawing down on holdings of Treasury bonds, using the proceeds to finance new programs. Officials don't want that stockpile to get too low. It now is about $476 billion, with some of that amount already tied up in other programs.

The Fed also has turned to the Treasury Department for cash. Treasury has issued debt, leaving the proceeds on deposit with the Fed for the central bank to use as it chose. But the Treasury said in November it was scaling back that effort. The Treasury is undertaking its own massive borrowing program and faces legal limits on how much it can borrow.

More recently, the Fed has funded programs by flooding the financial system with money it created itself -- known in central-banking circles as bank reserves -- and has used the money to make loans and purchase assets.

Some economists worry about the consequences of this approach. Fed officials could find it challenging to remove the cash from the system once markets stabilize and the economy improves. It's not a problem now, but if they're too slow to act later it can cause inflation.

Moreover, the flood of additional cash makes it harder for Fed officials to maintain interest rates at their desired level. The fed-funds rate, an overnight borrowing rate between banks, has fallen consistently below the Fed's 1% target. It is expected to reduce that target next week.

Louis Crandall, an economist with Wrightson ICAP LLC, a Wall Street money-market broker, says the Fed's interventions also have the potential to clog up the balance sheets of banks, its main intermediaries.

"Finding alternative funding vehicles that bypass the banking system would be a more effective way to support the U.S. credit system," he says.

Some private economists worry that Fed-issued bonds could create new problems. Marvin Goodfriend, an economist at Carnegie Mellon University's Tepper School of Business and a former senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said that issuing debt could put the Fed at odds with the Treasury at a time when it is already issuing mountains of debt itself.

"It creates problems in coordinating the issuance of government debt," Mr. Goodfriend said. "These would be very close cousins to existing Treasury bills. They would be competing in the same market to federal debt."

With Treasury-bill rates now near zero, it seems unlikely that Fed debt would push Treasury rates much higher, but it could some day become an issue.

There are also questions about the Fed's authority.

"I had always worked under the assumption that the Federal Reserve couldn't issue debt," said Vincent Reinhart, a former senior Fed staffer who is now an economist at the American Enterprise Institute. He says it is an action better suited to the Treasury Department, which has clear congressional authority to borrow on behalf of the government.

Ecuador to Selectively Default on Foreign Debt as "Illegitimate"

Opening salvo in a restructuring negotiation no doubt, but it will be interesting if this becomes a trend amongst those who perceive themselves in debt peonage to the corrupting schemes and usury of economic hitmen.

Alter.net
As Crisis Mounts, Ecuador Declares Foreign Debt Illegitimate and Illegal
By Daniel Denvir
November 26, 2008.

A special debt audit commission released a report charging that much of Ecuador's foreign debt was illegitimate or illegal.

Amidst the spreading global financial crisis, a special debt audit commission released a report charging that much of Ecuador's foreign debt was illegitimate or illegal. The commission recommended that Ecuador default on $3.9 billion in foreign commercial debts--Global Bonds 2012, 2015 and 2030--the result of debts restructured in 2000 after the country's 1999 default.

Although Ecuador currently has the capacity to pay, dropping oil prices and squeezed credit markets are putting President Rafael Correa's plans to boost spending on education and health care in jeopardy. Correa has pledged to prioritize the "social debt" over debt to foreign creditors.

The commission accused Salomon Smith Barney, now part of Citigroup Inc., of handling the 2000 restructuring without Ecuador's authorization, leading to the application of 10 and 12 percent interest rates. The commission evaluated all commercial, multilateral, government-to-government and domestic debt from 1976-2006.

Commercial debt, or debt to private banks, made up 44% of Ecuador's interest payments in 2007, considerably more than the 27% paid to multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But the report also lambasted multilateral debt, saying that many IMF and World Bank loans were used to advance the interests of transnational corporations. Ecuador's military dictatorship (1974-1979) was the first government to lead the country into indebtedness.

The commission found that usurious interest rates were applied for many bonds and that past Ecuadorian governments illegally took other loans on. Debt restructurings consistently forced Ecuador to take on more foreign debt to pay outstanding debt, and often at much higher interest rates. The commission also charged that the U.S. Federal Reserve's late 1970's interest rate hikes constituted a "unilateral" increase in global rates, compounding Ecuador's indebtedness.

If President Rafael Correa follows the commission's recommendations--which is far from a certainty--Ecuador could default on some portion of its foreign debt, becoming the first Latin American country to do so since Argentina in 2001.

But despite all the hints at a default, it seems likely that Ecuador will use the commission's report as leverage for restructuring the country's debt. Commission president Ricardo Patiño indicated as much to Bloomberg News, but said that Ecuador would not settle for a 60% reduction, a number that had earlier been mentioned.

Ecuador announced that it would delay paying $30.6 million in interest on the Global Bonus 2012, taking advantage of a month-long grace period. The announcement sent the global financial universe into a panic, with Standard and Poor's cutting Ecuador's risk rating to CCC-.

Social movements have long alleged that corrupt former governments illegally negotiated loans for their own personal financial gain.

Significantly, the commission singled out foreign debt for being "illegitimate" rather than simply illegal. Social movements have long declared most foreign debt to be illegitimate, but Ecuador's use of legitimacy as a legal argument for defaulting would set a major precedent; indeed, the mere formation of a debt auditing commission does so. Osvaldo Leon, of the Latin American Information Agency (ALAI), says that it remains to be seen if other countries in Latin America will follow suit.

Ecuador's findings could set an important precedent for the poorest of indebted countries, whose debt burden has long been criticized as inhumane...

Russian Expert Says US Headed for Collapse

Are we going to allow the Russians to have the last laugh?

No way.

So get out there and buy some stocks, rubes, and help to fully fund our oligarchs so they do not fall behind the elite that divided up Russia's wealth after its collapse.

We cannot afford to have an oligarch gap.

If you are not sure what fraudulent stocks to buy, just put your money in the long bond, and the Treasury and Fed will manage the distribution for you.

UPI
Russian expert: U.S. headed for collapse
Nov. 24, 2008 at 7:58 PM

MOSCOW, Nov. 24 -- The United States is heading for collapse amid its financial crisis, a leading political analyst in Russia says.

Igor Panarin, a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs, said in an interview with Izvestia, published Monday, that the U.S. economy is in dire straits, RIA Novosti reported.

"The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse," he said.

Asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said the process has already begun.

"It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving," he said. "Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."

Thinking the Unthinkable: Are the Markets Warning of a US Debt Default?

As we have previously stated, right now the US is on the path to a devaluation and a selective default on its debt and currency. No one can say 'how and when' with certainty. But surely it seems probable that there is a stop and a stumble in the growth of this mother of credit bubbles somewhere ahead.

Perhaps it may be more credible if one reads a similar speculation in the financial magazine Barron's.

Some have suggested that devaluation no longer has meaning, preferring depreciation. Why? Because what would one devalue the dollar against, as it is tied to no external standard? The Dollar is its own standard as the reserve currency of the word.

A bit of a technical nuance perhaps, a holdover from when money was related to independent stores of value. But we think the dollar can be devalued against the expectation of the marketplace that the growth of the money supply will keep pace with the net productive output of the US, and real relative purchasing power, and represent a store of value with some small variance for inflation.

It is always a mistake to assume that there are no external standards, no dissenting views, that things are merely what we say they are and should be, for everyone.

The standard is the 'full faith and credit of the United States.' And if that confidence is broken, the reversion to fundamental 'external' values may be impressive.

Unthinkable? Every currency that has ever been has eventually been destroyed and undergone a transformation. Even the US dollar has undergone evolutions and incarnations.

But few things are inevitable. The world may choose to create a one world currency, under the control of the Fed and the Central Banks, which is a prelude to One World Government. This would be one way to extend the existence of a fiat regime. Kill off all the alternatives, by force. A regime of the will to last a thousand years.

In the short term we may again see rallies in the bonds and dollar because of a flight to quality and a short squeeze on dollars, particularly in Europe. This is due to lags in the effects of a credit cycle decline on its various components.

Demand for dollars spikes in a flight to quality and debt payment squeezes such as that being experienced by some European banks, and then declines more slowly than the supply of dollars can ramp up in a declining credit cycle, leading to a 'liquidity crunch.'

This is particularly confusing to most casual thinking on economics. It helps if you really think about what a dollar represents, what money really is, to someone outside the system holding 'real goods' for sale.

At some point the ramp up of dollars meets and exceeds demand, and the cycle of inflation begins again. If the situation is particularly dire, the currency may be devalued to speed its supply as the US did in 1933. But without a new Bretton Woods type currency fix an inflation alone is much more likely.

As an aside, we think the Europeans should declare a force majeure and allow all non-euro debts, even in private contracts, to be settled in euros as part of a formal rejection of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

But these are all exogenous developments. For now, within a degree of probability, the US is on the road to a significant failure of its currency and debt, most likely through a nasty bout of inflation, selective bankruptcies, and ultimately the reissue of a new currency.

Searching for relative safe havens of value for wealth, as it had been in the 1970's, may be the premiere investment theme for the rest of this decade, and some part of the next.

Barron's
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET DAILY
Uncle Sam's Credit Line Running Out?
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
NOVEMBER 11, 2008

The yield curve and credit default swaps tell the same story: the U.S. can't borrow trillions without paying a price.

WHAT ONCE WAS UNTHINKABLE has come to pass this year: massive bailouts by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, with the extension of billions of the taxpayers' and the central bank's credit in so many new and untested schemes that you can't tell your acronyms or abbreviations without a scorecard.

Even more unbelievable is that some of the recipients of staggering sums are coming back for a second round. Or that the queue of petitioners grows by the day.

But what happens if the requests begin to strain the credit line of the world's most creditworthy borrower, the U.S. government itself? Unthinkable?

American International Group which originally had to borrow what was a stunning $85 billion from the Fed to keep it from cratering in September, upped the total Sunday to $150 billion.

Monday, Fannie Mae reported a $29 billion third-quarter loss, far in excess of forecasts, raising the specter that the mortgage giant may need more money after the Treasury pledged to inject $100 billion in preferred stock financing in September.

Meanwhile, American Express received Fed approval to convert to a bank holding company, joining the likes of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, that have a direct pipeline to borrow from the Fed or the Treasury's TARP, the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Fund.

And, of course, Detroit is looking for a credit line from Washington. General Motors (GM) Friday warned it could run out of cash next year without a government loan. GM plunged another 23% Monday, to 3.36, as several analysts helpfully recommended selling shares of the beleaguered automaker that already had lost more than 85% of their value.

Visiting the White House Monday, President-elect Obama pressed President Bush to support emergency aid for GM and other automakers. The prospect for federal aid for GM ironically weighed on its shares as one bearish analyst said the price of the bailout could be a wipeout of common holders.

Be that as it may, it's all adding up. If the late Sen. Everett Dirkson were around today, he might comment that a trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon you're talking about real money.

Trillions are no hyperbole. The Treasury is set to borrow $550 billion in the current quarter alone and $368 billion in the first quarter of 2009. "Near-term pressures on Treasury finances are much more intense than we had thought," Goldman Sachs economists commented when the government announced its borrowing projections last week.

It may finally be catching up with Uncle Sam. That's what the yield curve may be whispering. But some economists are too deaf, or dumb, to get it.

The yield curve simply is the graph of Treasury yields of increasing maturities, starting from one-month bills to 30-year bonds. The slope of the line typically is ascending -- positive in math terms -- because investors would want more to tie up their money for longer periods, all else being equal. Which it never is.

If they expect yields to rise in the future, they'll want a bigger premium to commit to longer maturities. Otherwise, they'd rather stay short and wait for more generous yields later on. Conversely, if they think rates will fall, investors will want to lock in today's yields for a longer period.

The Treasury yield curve -- from two to 10 years, which is how the bond market tracks it -- has rarely been steeper. The spread is up to 250 basis points (2.5 percentage points, a level matched only in the past quarter century in 2002 and 1992, at the trough of economic cycles.

Based on a simplistic reading of that history and the Cliff Notes version of theory, one economist whose main area of expertise is to get quoted by reporters even less knowledgeable than he, asserts such a steep yield curve typically reflects investors' anticipation of economic recovery. (LOL, nicely phrased - Jesse)

Never mind that the yield curve has steepened as the economy has worsened and prospects for recovery have diminished. Like the Bourbons, the French royal family up to the Revolution, he learns nothing and forgets nothing.

As with so much other things, something else is happening this year.

The steepening of the Treasury yield curve has been accompanied by an increase in the cost of insuring against default by the U.S. Treasury. It may come as a shock, but there are credit default swaps on the U.S. government and they have become more expensive -- in tandem with an increase in the spread between two- and 10-year notes.

This link has been brought to light by Tim Backshall, the chief analyst of Credit Derivatives Research. The attraction of investors to the short end of the Treasury market is "juxtaposed with the massive oversupply and inflationary expectations of the longer end," he writes.

Backshall is not alone in this dire assessment. Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer for fixed income at Guggenheim Partners, a Los

Angeles money manager, estimates that total Treasury borrowing for fiscal 2009 will total $1.5 trillion-$2 trillion. That was based on $700 billion for TARP, a $500 billion-$750 billion "cyclical deficit," an additional $500 billion stimulus program and some uncertain amount for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Minerd doubts that private savings in the U.S. and foreign purchases of Treasury debt will be sufficient to meet those government cash. That leaves the Fed to take up the slack; that is, monetization of the debt.

However it comes about, Backshall's charts of the yield curve and the spread on U.S. Treasury CDS paint a dramatic picture. Both the yield spread and the cost of insuring debt moved up sharply together starting in September.

Let's recall what happened that month: the Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac bailouts, the AIG bailout and the Lehman Brothers failure. The two lines continued their parallel ascent with the announcement and ultimate passage of the TARP last month. And evidence mounted of an accelerating slide in growth.

Cutting through the technical jargon, the yield curve and the credit-default swaps market both indicate the markets are exacting a greater cost to lend to Uncle Sam. And it's not because of anticipated recovery, which would reduce, not increase, the cost of insuring Treasury debt against default.

All of which suggests America's credit line has its limits.

At the beginning of the Clinton Administration in the early 1990s, adviser James Carville was stunned at the power the bond market had over the government. If he came back, Carville said he would want to come back as the bond market so he could scare everybody.

President-elect Obama may come to think Clinton had it easy by comparison.

General Motors is on the Brink of Default and Bankruptcy

Right at the close of trading Fitch and the other rating agencies cut General Motors debt ratings. In particular Fitch was quite specific that GM will either be bailed out or will be forced to default and restructure.

"Given the current liquidity level of $16.2 billion and the pace of negative cash flows, Fitch expects that GM will require direct federal assistance over the next quarter and the forbearance of trade creditors in order to avoid default."

In addition, and perhaps unrelated, AIG has moved its 3Q 08 financial results from after the close of trading on Monday to 6 AM, before the Bell.

Another late Sunday night before the start of Asia trading?

Fitch Places GM's 'CCC' IDR on Rating Watch Negative
07 Nov 2008 3:57 PM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-New York- Fitch Ratings has placed the Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of General Motors (GM) on Rating Watch Negative as a result of the company's rapidly diminishing liquidity position.

Given the current liquidity level of $16.2 billion and the pace of negative cash flows, Fitch expects that GM will require direct federal assistance over the next quarter and the forbearance of trade creditors in order to avoid default.

With virtually no further access to external capital and little potential for material asset sales, cash holdings are expected to shortly reach minimum required operating levels.

GM remains dependent on the capacity and willingness of its suppliers to continue extending trade credit, as the company does not have sufficient resources to finance ongoing operations in the event that trade credit is curtailed.

Over the intermediate term, GM's expanded debt load and debt service costs, when combined with significantly reduced earnings capacity, indicate that material improvement in the balance sheet is unlikely absent a restructuring of the balance sheet. This could eventually take place through a distressed debt exchange.

Fitch believes that direct federal aid is highly likely to be forthcoming, although the amount, timing, structure and term remain uncertain. Without material federal assistance in the short term, Fitch would review the rating for a potential downgrade to 'CC', which indicates that default is probable.

Given the extended cash drains expected through at least 2009 and the need for balance sheet restructuring, provision of federal assistance may not preclude a downgrade to 'CC'.

Deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and the effects of the credit crisis continue to ratchet down retail sales volumes and to expand negative cash flows.

Restructuring costs, other one-off items, and working capital outflows have exacerbated operating losses, factors that will continue to hamper any recovery in the near term. The rationing of retail financing highlights the tremendous capital advantage held by transplant manufacturers, further impairing near-term volume and pricing potential.

In addition, Fitch has placed the following on Rating Watch Negative:

--Senior secured at 'B/RR1';
--Senior unsecured at 'CCC-/RR5'.

General Motors of Canada Ltd.
--Long term IDR 'CCC';
--Senior unsecured at 'CCC-/RR5'.

Marc Faber Sees Bankruptcy for the US

MINA
Swiss Finance Guru sees bankruptcy for the U.S
Thursday, 06 November 2008


Swiss financial guru Marc Faber tells swissinfo he sees hard times ahead for the world's stock exchanges and even state bankruptcy for the United States.

He also believes that stock exchanges will stay at low levels for a long time.

Faber, otherwise known as Dr Doom for his contrarian views on the economy, has lived in Asia for the past 35 years.

He is a jack-of-all-trades: investment adviser, financier, best-selling author and the compiler of a monthly economic publication called The Gloom Boom and Doom Report.

Faber sits on various boards of directors and investment committees.

swissinfo: You prophesied the stock market crash of 1987 and the Asia crisis and became a celebrity as a result. Did you see this crisis coming too?

Marc Faber: It was quite clear we had a credit bubble. I had been warning about that for years and not only in the mortgage sector. But what surprised even me was that [US insurer] AIG would almost disappear and that UBS shares would fall under $17.20.

swissinfo: How did it come to such a situation?

M.F.: A credit bubble has been growing for 25 years. We've seen, in particular over the past seven years, an unbelievable credit growth, which fuelled economic development. Then there were structural changes in the economy, for example the sinking saving ratios that have had an effect on consumption and growth rates.

The situation worsened in 2001 in the United States when the central bank lowered the interest rate from 6.5 per cent to an unheard of one per cent in 2003. This ultra-expansive monetary policy led to a credit growth that was five times higher than growth of the economy. A bubble growth and later the crash were the logical consequences.

swissinfo: Have we reached rock bottom?

M.F.: I think we're near it. But I also think we'll stick at this low point for a long time. Anyone who thinks that everything will soon be rosy again is naive. It's quite possible that worldwide stock exchanges will experience a similar development to that witnessed in Japan over the past two decades [the Nikkei index has fallen from 39,000 points to under 8,000].

Japan also shows that the large amount of money injected to stimulate the markets didn't have the desired effect – but it did produce huge holes in the state coffers.

swissinfo: You are known for swimming against the tide of conventional wisdom. But you are right in line with the prevailing pessimism.

M.F.: Not quite. I'm even more pessimistic than most (laughs). Look at it like this, between 1980 and 2007 people saved from their capital gains and not their income, as their income was spent. That was fine while property and shares increased in value every year. Today these people are highly indebted and are only beginning to save more by putting the brake on their consumption.

That's how every economy goes to the dogs – with or without injection of capital by governments. With the best of wills, I do not see a single catalyst that could lead to a new bull market in the world. At the moment, everything has gone down the drain.

swissinfo: How does the present crisis differ from previous ones?

M.F.: In the past few years everything went up – shares, commodities, consumer goods, real estate values, art and even bonds. Such a combination is extremely unusual. We saw the biggest investment bubble in the history of humanity. The current situation is possibly worse than the global economic crisis of 1929. And that is thanks to Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke [the former and current US Federal Reserve Board chairmen]. These two gentlemen must account for massive errors.

swissinfo: Governments are offering guarantees and are pumping thousands of billions into the markets. Is that a mistake?

M.F.: Yes. The losses are there and someone has to bear them. There are two possibilities. Banks go under and the stakeholders are left with nothing, as is the case with Lehman Brothers, or governments pump money into the financial system so that the incompetent financial clowns in Bahnhofstrasse [Zurich's financial centre] and Wall Street can continue to eat in fancy restaurants.

I am clearly in favour of the first because the consequences of these state interventions are massive budget deficits. To finance these, governments have to acquire money. For that they have to borrow money, which makes state debt and interest payments soar. US economists have come to the conclusion from the trends that there will be a US state bankruptcy. (That's not a very widely held view Herr Faber, and we're feeling a little isolated in that view - for now - Jesse)

swissinfo: Do you share that view?

M.F.: One hundred per cent. The US government will in future have new debts of at least $1,000 billion (SFr1,165 billion). That's on top of the current state debt of $10,000 billion. And that doesn't take into account state programmes to stimulate the economy. The government will have no other choice than to print money, which in the long term will lead to inflation.

swissinfo: How do you see the near future?

M.F.: More positively. The markets are totally undervalued so I reckon on a short-term recovery of easily 20 to 30 per cent. (LOL. Stocks are absolutely not undervalued, but a technical bounce of 20% is very possible. There was a 60% bounce after the Great Crash of 1929, before the markets turned lower again, eventually giving up 89% of their peak values into the market bottom of 1933. Bear markets often get 20-30% short covering rallies before starting a next leg down. This is what makes them so difficult to trade. You cannot hold anything, which is how most investors have been conditioned by the preceding bull market. The use of leverage is deadly for core positions. - Jesse)

swissinfo: When?

M.F.: In the next two to three weeks. (After we make a bottom. Use that rally to discard any remaining dollar financial holdings and get liquid, buy gold and silver. - Jesse)

swissinfo: That's not exactly very much in view of the massive losses.

M.F.: No. If you drop a tennis ball with only a little air in it, it doesn't bounce very high!

swissinfo: Are you calling into question the concept of making money from shares?

M.F.: No. The idea is still valid but you have to be realistic. Adjusted for inflation and with a long-term perspective you could earn on average three per cent with US shares. The long-term promises of eight per cent made by bankers and pseudo investment advisers to lure their customers are absolute rubbish. (Can't fault that logic - Jesse)

swissinfo: It looked for a long time as though Switzerland would get away with just a black eye. What is your view? (What the Swiss government and central bank have done to their economy and finances is a disgrace. We hold no Swiss francs any longer. The Swiss people have been treated badly. - Jesse)

M.F.: The export industry will be extremely hard hit. People in Switzerland will have to accustom themselves to bankruptcies, particularly in the machine industry (They will devalue the franc inevitably. The savings of the people will be destroyed. The Swiss bank has sold off its gold. The large banks are functionally insolvent. Shameful - Jesse)

In 2009 the US Will Be Forced to Selectively Default and Devalue Its Debt

We have seen estimates that next year the US will have to finance a $2 Trillion annual deficit. They may be able to push it further into the next Administration than that by the forbearance of the world, but not by much. We'd expect a significant drop in Treasuries by 2011 at the latest.

It should be obvious to anyone that we are approaching the apogee of the Treasury bubble, with the credit bubble having broken already.

When the Treasury says they are facing unprecedented challenges in financing the US public debt next year that is an understatement.

Once the deleveraging of the markets subsides, the dollar and Treasuries will drop, perhaps with some momentum, as the rest of the world realizes that the US has no choice but to default. This can be resolved in several ways, including continued subsidies from foreign sources in the form of virtual debt forgiveness, devaluation of the dollar, raising of taxes, and higher interest rates on debt.

The problem now is that the US has breached the point where it can service its debt out of real cash flows, and turning this around will require a severe devaluation of the US dollar.

Devaluation and selective default are the only foreseeable systemic alternatives. There are other exogenous paths of a more political nature such as consolidation and war that may color the default a slightly different color, but a selective default it remains.

This is the fundamental situation. Everything else is speculation and commentary.


Bloomberg
Ryan Says Treasury Faces `Unprecedented' Financing Needs in '09
By Rebecca Christie

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury faces historic demands to fund a growing budget deficit and raise money for a $700 billion Wall Street rescue program the department's top domestic finance official said today.

``This year's financing needs will be unprecedented,'' said Anthony Ryan, the Treasury's acting undersecretary for domestic finance, at a Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association conference in New York, where he was a last-minute substitution for Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

To raise the necessary funding, the Treasury is looking at selling more long-term debt and possibly bringing back three- year note sales at the Nov. 5 refunding, Ryan said. The Treasury also is raising money to address ``many different policy objectives'' and reduce bond market disruptions and will try to keep its borrowing patterns as regular as possible, he said.

``We firmly believe that investors value greatly and pay a premium for Treasury's predictable actions,'' Ryan said. ``To the very best of our ability, we intend to stay the course.''

Ryan also said the U.S. government now ``effectively guarantees'' debt issued by mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprises placed into government conservatorship on Sept. 7. The preferred stock agreement included in the government takeover means the U.S. now backs ``both existing and to be issued'' GSE debt.

``The U.S. government stands behind these enterprises, their debt and the mortgage-backed securities they guarantee,'' Ryan said. The GSEs have almost $6 trillion in outstanding debt and mortgage securities.

U.S. equity and credit markets remain under ``considerable strain'' and face ongoing challenges, he said. That said, Federal Reserve efforts to backstop commercial paper are ``helping'' to stabilize markets, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rebecca Christie in Washington at Rchristie4@bloomberg.net;

Last Updated: October 28, 2008 10:47 EDT