02 June 2009

Palotta's Raptor Hedge Fund Halts Redemptions - To Close


No doubt overwhelmed by the heady perfume of green shoots wafting from the Fed's printing presses.

WSJ
Pallotta, Noble to Close Funds
By JENNY STRASBURG and PETER LATTMAN

Two prominent Boston money managers are winding down their biggest funds, another sign of the relentless shakeout in the hedge fund industry.

James Pallotta, who runs the $800 million Raptor fund, has decided to return money to outside clients, people familiar with the matter said.

George Noble, a former mutual-fund manager who controls some $550 million across two funds named Gyrfalcon, intends to refund clients this month. He describes his 2009 performance in a letter to investors Tuesday as "the most professionally disappointing and personally frustrating of my entire career."

Their simultaneous exits show how veteran investors still regard these markets with caution, despite stocks' recent ascent. The decisions could portend similar moves by other fund managers who, burned by losses and facing pressure from clients, opt to shutter, even as the hedge fund industry's returns have improved.

Mr. Pallotta less than a year ago split off from hedge-fund pioneer Paul Tudor Jones, his investment partner for 15 years. Mr. Pallotta ran Tudor Investment Corp.'s Raptor fund, a stock-picking vehicle that at its peak had $9 billion in assets and some of the best returns in the industry but that hit a money-losing skid starting in mid-2007.

Mr. Pallotta, 51 years old, grew up in Boston's working-class North End neighborhood and became one of the city's richest men and a minority owner of its beloved Celtics professional basketball team. This year, he opened a New York office in addition to his Boston location. Yet amid the market tumult, he kept most of his assets in cash and for now has put fundraising and major organizational decisions on hold, people familiar with the matter said.

Saving Private Greed


As best we can figure, this rally is providing cover for the big Wall Street banks who are issuing equity as fast as their little hooves can move, to qualify for the TARP payback mechanism.

By 'proving' that the market wishes their debt and equity, Timmy says they will be permitted to pay back their TARP funds, and be released from scrutiny on their bonuses.

While the volumes stay thin and the Fed's wallet remains fat, this rally make continue. Or at least an optimistic trading range.

As a side note, I made the first borscht of the summer season yesterday with very nice beets from a local source. Slowly roasted the beef and beef bones, onions, and celery to carmelize in a foil pan on a grill outside, and then cooked it up with the already cleaned and boiled beets, beef stock, seasoning, a little sugar and vinegar in a big pot for a couple hours. We then allowed it to chill overnight. It was a thin clear broth but a deep purple, and loaded with diced pieces of beef and beets, with a few very small round redskin potatoes.

With a dollop of sour cream and chopped sweet onion, DELICIOUS! and refreshing.

By far the best, and a delightful distraction from this wretched market.

A Stronger Dollar: After Many a Summer Dies the Swan


This is the kind of situation that tends to wobble forward from momentum until it hits a crack in the pavement, some trigger event, then topples into a ditch and a full blown crisis, often when we least expect it.

I have not been reading many other financial blogs lately, giving more time to family and preparing for what is to come. I wonder if the more strident true believers in a stronger dollar through deflation have relaxed belief in the improbable yet, or if they are still flogging the data to support a mistaken theory.

Its one thing to be wrong. Everyone is, at one time or another, including yours truly. But its especially costly, sometimes fatally so, to be stubborn after your time has come and gone.

If equities take another leg down, as we suspect they will, then the dollar will strengthen once again, perhaps impressively. But it is just a shifting in allocations in a dollar universe that is changing, often slowly, into something that will likely be quite different, as in a black swan event.

As you know the position we took on this question was to make the case that in a fiat currency regime a range of outcomes are technically possible (and still are). But the probability of inflation was overwhelming when the facts were considered dispassionately.

As a general rule, the louder the rhetoric, the weaker the case to be made for a viewpoint.

Look at the data and be guided by it in all other things of this world.


Bloomberg
Dollar Declines as Slump Prompts Nations to Mull Alternative
By Oliver Biggadike and Matthew Brown

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to its lowest level against the euro this year on speculation record U.S. borrowing will undermine the greenback, prompting nations to consider alternatives to the world’s main reserve currency.

The 16-nation euro gained for a fourth day versus the dollar as the Russian government said emerging-market leaders may discuss the idea of a supranational currency. The pound strengthened to $1.65 for the first time since October.

“There’s been a lot of talk out of Russia about a new global currency, and that’s contributing toward this latest bout of dollar weakness,” said Henrik Gullberg, a currency strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “These latest comments are just adding to the general dollar weakness we’ve seen recently...”

Russian Proposal

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev may discuss his proposal to create a new world currency when he meets counterparts from Brazil, India and China this month, Natalya Timakova, a spokeswoman for the president, told reporters by phone today. Medvedev first proposed seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency in March.

The dollar also declined on speculation “smaller” central banks started today’s selling of the greenback, said Sebastien Galy, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York.

“If people believe that there is official pressure behind it, then obviously it puts pressure on euro-dollar on the upside,” Galy said. Galy predicted the 16-nation currency may reach $1.4360 today, a peak last reached in December.

There will be demand for the record amount of debt the U.S. is selling, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in an interview earlier today with state media outlets in China.

China’s ‘Understanding’

China has a “very sophisticated understanding” of why the U.S. is running up budget deficits, Geithner said in Beijing, pledging to rein in borrowing later.

“Despite the more comforting words we’ve had from the Chinese to the U.S. overnight, it does seem that the world’s reserve managers are still concerned about exposure to the dollar,” said Ian Stannard, a foreign-exchange strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA...

‘Last Stage’

The euro’s rally against the dollar may be entering its “last stage,” and investors would likely benefit from selling the 16-nation currency against the greenback, UBS AG said.

Europe’s currency is poised to weaken toward $1.30, analysts led by Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Zurich-based chief currency strategist at the world’s second-biggest foreign-exchange trader, wrote in a note to clients yesterday. The analysts reiterated forecasts for the euro to trade at $1.40 in one month’s time and weaken to $1.30 in three months.

“We remain positive on the U.S. dollar and think that the greenback is likely in its final stage of weakness,” the analysts wrote. “Equity and bond flows have the potential to surprise and could lend support to the dollar.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Oliver Biggadike in New York at obiggadike@bloomberg.net; Matthew Brown in London at mbrown42@bloomberg.net

Arthur Levitt Hired by Goldman Sachs


Arthur is often trotted out as an independent analyst and pundit on financial news programs. His name has been floated for some of the top regulatory jobs in the Obama Administration.

Goldman does not require advice from Arthur Levitt. People like Art and Larry Summers are hired for their connections, insider knowledge, and for future services to be rendered. In this case Arthur will be offering to help to shape the evolving regulatory structure as it is 'reformed.'


Arthur Levitt to Serve as Advisor to Goldman Sachs

NEW YORK -- (Business Wire) --

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) today announced that Arthur Levitt has agreed to serve as an advisor to Goldman Sachs. In this capacity, he will provide strategic advice to the firm on a range of matters, including those related to public policy.

“ArthurÂ’s experience and deep knowledge of our industry will be of tremendous value to our firm,” said Lloyd C. Blankfein, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. “We look forward to having the benefit of his insight on a range of issues relating to the firm and financial services in general.”

Mr. Levitt was the 25th Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and its longest serving Chairman. He began in this role in July 1993 and left the Commission in February 2001.

Before joining the SEC, Mr. Levitt owned Roll Call, a Washington D.C.-based newspaper that focuses on the US government. He also served as the Chairman of the New York City Economic Development Corporation, Chairman of the American Stock Exchange and President of Shearson Hayden Stone. He is presently a Senior Advisor to The Carlyle Group, Promontory Financial Group, Getco and serves on the board of Bloomberg LP...
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The Carbon Trade and Enron: An Inconvenient Truth


"Cap and Trade" is an indirect tax on the real economy by those in the financial services sector.

It creates no wealth, it limits no pollution per se. It is a transfer mechanism, from the many to the few.


National Post
Enron's other secret
By Lawrence Solomon

In the climate-change debate, the companies on the ‘environmental’ side have the most to gain.

We all know that the financial stakes are enormous in the global warming debate ­ many oil, coal and power companies are at risk should carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases get regulated in a manner that harms their bottom line. The potential losses of an Exxon or a Shell are chump change, however, compared to the fortunes to be made from those very same regulations.

The climate-change industry ­ the scientists, lawyers, consultants, lobbyists and, most importantly, the multinationals that work behind the scenes to cash in on the riches at stake ­ has emerged as the world’s largest industry. Virtually every resident in the developed world feels the bite of this industry, often unknowingly, through the hidden surcharges on their food bills, their gas and electricity rates, their gasoline purchases, their automobiles, their garbage collection, their insurance, their computers purchases, their hotels, their purchases of just about every good and service, in fact, and finally, their taxes to governments at all levels.

These extractions do not happen by accident. Every penny that leaves the hands of consumers does so by design, the final step in elaborate and often brilliant orchestrations of public policy, all the more brilliant because the public, for the most part, does not know who is profiteering on climate change, or who is aiding and abetting the profiteers.

Some of the climate-change profiteers are relatively unknown corporations; others are household names with only their behind-the-scenes role in the climate-change industry unknown. Over the next few weeks, in an extended newspaper series, you will become familiar with some of the profiteers, and with their machinations. This series begins with Enron, a pioneer in the climate-change industry.

Almost two decades before President Barack Obama made “cap-and-trade” for carbon dioxide emissions a household term, an obscure company called Enron ­ a natural-gas pipeline company that had become a big-time trader in energy commodities ­ had figured out how to make millions in a cap-and-trade program for sulphur dioxide emissions, thanks to changes in the U.S. government’s Clean Air Act. To the delight of shareholders, Enron’s stock price rose rapidly as it became the major trader in the U.S. government’s $20-billion a year emissions commodity market.

Enron Chairman Kenneth Lay, keen to engineer an encore, saw his opportunity when Bill Clinton and Al Gore were inaugurated as president and vice-president in 1993. To capitalize on Al Gore’s interest in global warming, Enron immediately embarked on a massive lobbying effort to develop a trading system for carbon dioxide, working both the Clinton administration and Congress. Political contributions and Enron-funded analyses flowed freely, all geared to demonstrating a looming global catastrophe if carbon dioxide emissions weren’t curbed. An Enron-funded study that dismissed the notion that calamity could come of global warming, meanwhile, was quietly buried.

To magnify the leverage of their political lobbying, Enron also worked the environmental groups. Between 1994 and 1996, the Enron Foundation donated $1-million to the Nature Conservancy and its Climate Change Project, a leading force for global warming reform, while Lay and other individuals associated with Enron donated $1.5-million to environmental groups seeking international controls on carbon dioxide.

The intense lobbying paid off. Lay became a member of president Clinton’s Council on Sustainable Development, as well as his friend and advisor. In the summer of 1997, prior to global warming meetings in Kyoto, Japan, Clinton sought Lay’s advice in White House discussions. The fruits of Enron’s efforts came soon after, with the signing of the Kyoto Protocol.

An internal Enron memo, sent from Kyoto by John Palmisano, a former Environmental Protection Agency regulator who had become Enron’s lead lobbyist as senior director for Environmental Policy and Compliance, describes the historic corporate achievement that was Kyoto.

“If implemented this agreement will do more to promote Enron’s business than will almost any other regulatory initiative outside of restructuring of the energy and natural-gas industries in Europe and the United States,” Palmisano began. “The potential to add incremental gas sales, and additional demand for renewable technology is enormous.”

The memo, entitled “Implications of the Climate Change Agreement in Kyoto & What Transpired,” summarized the achievements that Enron had accomplished. “I do not think it is possible to overestimate the importance of this year in shaping every aspect of this agreement,” he wrote, citing three issues of specific importance to Enron which would become, as those following the climate-change debate in detail now know, the biggest money plays: the rules governing emissions trading, the rules governing transfers of emission reduction rights between countries, and the rules governing a gargantuan clean energy fund.

Palmisano’s memo expressed satisfaction bordering at amazement at Enron’s successes. The rules governing transfers of emission rights “is exactly what I have been lobbying for and it seems like we won. The clean development fund will be a mechanism for funding renewable projects. Again we won .... The endorsement of emissions trading was another victory for us.”

Palmisano’s hard work had paid off, thanks to the many allies Enron had enlisted. Deserving special emphasis was the environmental community, whose endorsement was crucial to Enron’s achievements at Kyoto.

“Enron now has excellent credentials with many ‘green’ interests including Greenpeace, WWF [World Wildlife Fund], NRDC [Natural Resources Defense Council], German Watch, the U.S. Climate Action Network, the European Climate Action Network, Ozone Action, WRI [World Resources Institute] and Worldwatch. This position should be increasingly cultivated and capitalized on (monetized),” Polisano explained.

With this company, Enron had been propelled to a leadership position at Kyoto. Palmisano had been given no less than three occasions for speeches, including one on the role of business in promoting clean energy, and he had received an award on behalf of Enron: The Climate Institute honoured Kenneth Lay and Enron for their work promoting clean-energy solutions to climate change ­ the other recipients were Denmark’s energy and environment minister and the U.K.’s former environment minister. As Palmisano noted: “Parenthetically, I heard many times people refer to Enron in glowing terms. Such praise went like this: ‘Other companies should be like Enron, seeking out 21st-century business opportunities,’ or ‘Progressive companies like Enron are ...’ or ‘Proof of the viability of market-based energy and environmental programs is Enron’s success in power and SO2 trading.’”

Palmisano’s three-page memo from Kyoto, which suggested that the Kyoto Protocol could work out even better than he had expected, stressed the need for urgency to capitalize on the opportunities that would now be on offer: “I now predict ratification within three years. I predict business opportunities within 18 months. I predict this agreement will have very significant influences on the energy sector within OECD and transitional economies and will accelerate renewable markets in developing countries. This agreement will be good for Enron stock!!”

The groundwork had been laid well, not least by entering into relationships with scientists who, Enron expected, would further its cause (James Hansen, the scientist who more than any other is responsible for bringing the possibility of climate-change catastrophe to the public, was among the scientists Enron commissioned). Just as shrewdly, Enron saw the importance in silencing the scientists who didn’t accept the alarmism that had driven the Kyoto Protocol. In a 1998 letter, Enron CEO Ken Lay, among others, asked president Clinton to appoint a bi-partisan “Blue-Ribbon Commission” designed to pronounce on the science and, in effect, marginalize the skeptics.

The precise commission that Lay demanded didn’t happen but the general marginalization of scientists did, and continues to occur to this day, with great success. Scientists who question the Kyoto Protocol invariably find themselves subject to public ridicule; all too often they find they are unable to obtain funding for their research, or even that their employment has been terminated.

Most of all, the skeptics are treated with suspicion, and accused of having been in the pay of the energy industry. The public in good part has accepted these accusations, its underlying assumption being that the fossil-fuel industry has the most at stake in climate-change policy. But if the public is to be skeptical of the influence that big money has over global-warming science, it should take the temperature anew, and recognize that the biggest money interest of all in the climate change debate lies with those poised to cash in on the climate-change policies of Kyoto and its successors.

lawrencesolomon@nextcity.com
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and Urban Renaissance Institute and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.




01 June 2009

SP Daily Chart: Bubble Bubble Toil and Trouble


Expanding the money supply, commonly called 'printing,' cannot result in a genuine economic recovery without significant reform and restructuring, with a net result in an increasing real median wage. We see no indications in that direction yet.

Otherwise, what we will see at best is another false but perhaps impressive nominal recovery in financial assets and equities, with a bigger and more deadly bubble somewhere in the real economy. The last two times the Fed tried this we saw bubbles in tech stocks and the housing market respectively.

What will the next bubble be, besides very painful? Commodities seem a likely candidate.

If the bubble attempt fails, then we will revisit the lows, and experience stagflation. Those who still cling to the deflation prospect are holding on to a narrow thread of true belief indeed. It is possible, but now improbable.

We have some small optimism that the Obama Administration will let go of their cronyism and self-dealing corruption in their decision-making, but not much.

The removal of Larry Summers from the administration team would be the key indicator that would keep that slim hope alive. He is a significant impediment to our national prospects, even moreso than his colleagues Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner.

Eventually all three will be given their walking papers, it is merely a question of how much damage their bad decisions will make before they leave.

The stench of crony capitalism and corruption is almost as thick as a Chicago style pizza crust in what was supposed to be a reform government.



30 May 2009

Silver Rockets to a Record Gain


There were delivery strains at the Comex this month.

A few more months like this and they will be taking the metal bears out of the pits on stretchers.

Remember, nothing ever goes straight up.

Silver posts biggest monthly gain in 22 years; gold rallies
By Moming Zhou, MarketWatch
May 29, 2009, 2:29 p.m. EST

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Silver futures gained 3% Friday, ending May with their biggest monthly gain in 22 years as inflation worries and hopes for an economic recovery boosted the metal. Gold rose to three-month highs as the dollar slipped.

Silver for July delivery, the most active contract, gained 45 cents to end at $15.61 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month June contract closed at $15.60 an ounce.

Meanwhile, gold for June delivery rose $17.30, or 1.8%, to close at $978.80 an ounce, the highest settlement since Feb. 23.

Silver has gained 26.6% this month, the biggest since April 1987. The metal has many industrial uses but is also seen as a hedge against a weaker dollar and inflation. In contrast, gold, which has limited industrial uses, has gained 9.8% in the month, the biggest monthly gain since November.

"What you may now be seeing is people think we are moving toward a recovery, and maybe we should be less pessimistic about the future of the metal, that may be factoring in the prices," said Jeffery Christian, managing director of New York-based precious metals consultancy CPM Group.

Silver, whose biggest single industrial use is in photography, is also used in medical applications and solar-energy devices.

Friday's economic news reinforced economic recovery hopes. The U.S. economy contracted at a revised 5.7% annual rate in the first quarter, a decline that's smaller than the 6.3% drop in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

More volatile

CPM's Christian also pointed out that silver had declined sharply in the second half of last year, when the global economy was entering into a sharp downturn. Its prices had fallen more than the price of gold.

"Silver is playing catch-up to some extent," said Christian.

The silver investment market is traditionally more volatile than gold, because the market is smaller than the gold market.

"The gold market is more participated, involved more money, and more liquid, and it tends to see lower volatility," said Christian. "In silver, you have few people with less money. It's a much more illiquid market and prices are always more volatile than gold."

In exchange-traded funds, iShares Silver Trust ETF has gained 38% this year, following its 40% decline in the second half of last year.

SPDR Gold Trust , meanwhile, has risen 11% this year. It fell 6% in the second half of last year.

In other metals Friday, July copper gained 6.05 cents, or 2.8%, to $2.1975 a pound. Copper rose 7% in May.

The June palladium contract rose $4.05, or 1.7%, to $236.05 an ounce, while July platinum rose $46.20, or 4%, to $1,196 an ounce.

Among metals-sector equities, shares of Barrick Gold Corp. rose 2.2% to $37.98 and South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd. was up 2% at $13.34, while Newmont Mining Corp. gained 2.1% to $48.35.

The Amex Gold Bugs Index , which tracks the share prices of major gold companies, rose 2.6% to 395.52.

28 May 2009

SP Futures Hourly Chart at 1 PM


Wax on. Wax off. Generate brokerage fees and skin the small speculators.

The fundamentals continue to deteriorate but volumes are so light its a shadow puppet market slithering into the end of the month. Sell in May and go away.

Unless Ben has the guts to ignite a serious inflation this market will go back down to test the lows before the end of the year. We *might* be in for a long hot zombie summer.

It is interesting to watch these US financial markets on charts which have been deflated by some other measure of value such as gold or silver.



27 May 2009

Ten Year Note Yield


While a steeper yield curve is good for the financial sector and those other folks who borrow short and lend longer term, it does no good if those higher rates choke off growth in the real economy. that is an overlooked detail in the Bankers' grand plans for financially engineering a recovery. This is a nation by the Banks, for the Banks, and of the Banks and their demimonde in Washington and the media.

It reminds this blogger of days gone by, when Jesse was a boy programmer writing assembler level code for IBM mainframes and other tedious tasks befitting his junior status.

A group of systems guys had been working long hours to bring up a large mainframe running VM 360 including the operating system, the peripherals, the FEP and coms, storage for a major university.

When they finally got all the bugs worked out and the system was up they quite seriously celebrated their success, saying: "Now if only we could keep the users off the machine all our problems would be solved."

Indeed. Watch the consumer along with the bond and the dollar, for those are the weakest links. From where we sit, the consumer has rolled over and won't be getting up anytime soon ahead of a rising median wage or some other sort of income increasing faster than their expenses and debt servicing.

And the rest of the world appears to be gorged on US debt and their reserve currency, at least the non-official segments that still care about spending and profit in the real world.




26 May 2009

Purchase Accounting Rules Set to Deliver $29 Billion Profit Windfall to JP Morgan and Other Banks


"It's Not the People Who Vote that Count; It's the People Who Count the Votes."
Josef Stalin

One of the many benefits of being a leading citizen of the Potemkin economy and a silent partner with the Treasury and Federal Reserve.

There is an analog to this in the tech sector, in which some companies may choose to write down the value of their components and subassembly inventories in fat quarters, and then take them as an improvement to their Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) in lean quarters, to boost EPS even as the top line revenues are flat to down.

And as for merger accounting, there are several companies showing excellent and consistent results using that rolling paintbrush of accounting embellishments.

Things are not always as they appear, especially when viewed through magic lantern of Wall Street.


RTTNews
JPMorgan likely to reap $29 Bln windfall on WaMu bad loans purchase
5/26/2009 8:29 AM ET

(RTTNews) - JPMorgan Chase & Co. stands to reap a $29 billion windfall due to an accounting rule that lets JPMorgan transform bad loans it purchased from Washington Mutual Inc. into income, the Bloomberg reported Tuesday.

Last year, the Seattle-based Washington Mutual, or WaMu, collapsed after it faced $19 billion of losses on soured mortgage loans and its credit rating was slashed, leaving it with insufficient liquidity to meet its obligations.

On September 25, 2008, JPMorgan Chase & Co. acquired all deposits, assets and certain liabilities of Washington Mutual Inc. for about $1.9 billion from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, or FDIC.

The New York-based JPMorgan reportedly has used purchase accounting, which allows it to record impaired loans at fair value, marking down $118.2 billion of assets by 25%. JPMorgan took a $29.4 billion write down on WaMu's holdings, mostly for option adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity loans.

The purchase-accounting rule provides banks with an incentive to mark down loans they acquire as aggressively as possible. One of the benefits of purchase accounting is after marking down the assets, one can accrete them back in, which is said to be favorable over the long run.

Now, as borrowers pay their debts, the bank reportedly says it may gain $29.1 billion over the life of the loans in pretax income before taxes and expenses.

JPMorgan aside, Wells Fargo, PNC Financial Services Group Inc., and Bank of America Corp. are also poised to benefit from taking over home lenders Wachovia Corp., Countrywide Financial Corp. and National City Corp., the report said citing regulatory filings.


What Caused This Rally?


"Consumer Confidence" came in higher than expected based on numbers from The Conference Board. The market started rising well ahead of the release of this 'news' which is no surprise as the source is a somewhat leaky bucket.

This despite the housing data in the Case-Shiller Index which was much worse than expected.

Our take is always that those who look for fundamental reasons for short term market moves are often on a fool's errand.

The reason for this rally today is best captured by an old stock market adage.

"Never short a dull market."


24 May 2009

Bernanke's Wager With the US Bond and Dollar


Bernanke's wager is on a virtual free lunch by printing money.

"Fed chair Ben Bernanke has long argued that central banks can bring down long-term borrowing rates by purchasing bonds "at essentially no cost". His frequent writings rarely ask whether foreigner investors – from a different cultural universe – will tolerate such conduct. Mr Bernanke is betting that under a floating currency regime there is no risk of repeating the disaster of October 1931, when the Fed had to raise rates twice to stem foreign gold withdrawals, with catastrophic consequences."
"There isn't enough capital in the world to buy the new sovereign issuance required to finance the giant fiscal deficits that countries are so intent on running. There is simply not enough money out there... If the US loses control of long rates, they will not be able to arrest asset price declines. If they print too much money, they will debase the dollar and cause stagflation."

There is enough money if the Fed can run the printing presses fast enough. That is the whole point. The bet is that people will continue to accept it in return for real goods and services, pretending that it has the same marginal value without regard to how much the Fed creates.

The method is to look good by attempting to make most of the competing forms of currency and stores of wealth look equally bad.

UK Telegraph
US bonds sale faces market resistance

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
9:19PM BST 24 May 2009

The US Treasury is facing an ordeal by fire this week as it tries to sell $100bn (£62bn) of bonds to a deeply sceptical market amid growing fears of a sovereign bond crisis in the Anglo-Saxon world.

The interest yield on 10-year US Treasuries – the benchmark price of long-term credit for the global system – jumped 33 basis points last week to 3.45pc week on contagion effects after Standard & Poor's issued a warning on Britain's "AAA" credit rating.

The yield has risen over 90 basis points since March when the US Federal Reserve first announced its controversial plan to buy Treasury bonds directly, a move designed to force down the borrowing costs and help stabilise the housing market.

The yield-spike may be nearing the point where it threatens to short-circuit economic recovery. While lower spreads on mortgage rates have kept a lid on home loan costs so far, mortgage rates have nevertheless crept back up to 5pc.

The Obama administration needs to raise $2 trillion this year to cover the fiscal stimulus plan and the bank bail-outs. It has to fund $900bn by September.

"The dynamic is just getting overwhelming," said RBC Capital Markets.

The US Treasury is selling $40bn of two-year notes on Tuesday, $35bn of five-year bonds on Wednesday, and $25bn of seven-year debt on Thursday. While the US has not yet suffered the indignity of a failed auction – unlike Britain and Germany – traders are watching closely to see what share is being purchased by US government itself in pure "monetisation" of the deficit...

The US is not alone in facing a deficit crisis. Governments worldwide have to raise some $6 trillion in debt this year, with huge demands in Japan and Europe. Kyle Bass from the US fund Hayman Advisors said the markets were choking on debt.

"There isn't enough capital in the world to buy the new sovereign issuance required to finance the giant fiscal deficits that countries are so intent on running. There is simply not enough money out there," he said. "If the US loses control of long rates, they will not be able to arrest asset price declines. If they print too much money, they will debase the dollar and cause stagflation.

"The bottom line is that there is no global 'get out of jail free' card for anyone", he said.

The US is acutely vulnerable because it relies heavily on foreign goodwill. China and Japan alone hold 23pc of America's $6,369bn federal debt. Suspicions that Washington is trying to engineer a stealth default by letting the dollar slide could cause patience to snap, even if Asian exporters would themselves suffer if they harmed their chief market.

The dollar has fallen 11pc against a basket of currencies since early March. Mutterings of a "dollar crisis" may now constrain the Fed as it tries to shore up the bond market. It has so far bought $116bn of Treasuries as part of its "credit easing" blitz, out of a $300bn pool.

When the Fed first said it was going to buy Treasuries in March the 10-year yield to dropped instantly from 3pc to near 2.5pc, but shock effect has since worn off. Any effort to step up purchases might backfire in the current jittery mood.

In the late 1940s the Fed was able to cap the 10-year yield at around 2pc, but that was a different world. The US commanded half global GDP and had a colossal trade surplus. The Fed could carry out its experiment without worrying about foreign dissent.

Fed chair Ben Bernanke has long argued that central banks can bring down long-term borrowing rates by purchasing bonds "at essentially no cost". His frequent writings rarely ask whether foreigner investors – from a different cultural universe – will tolerate such conduct.

Mr Bernanke is betting that under a floating currency regime there is no risk of repeating the disaster of October 1931, when the Fed had to raise rates twice to stem foreign gold withdrawals, with catastrophic consequences. This assumption may be tested.

It is not clear where the capital will come from to cover global bond issues. Asian central banks and Mid-East oil exporters have cut back on their purchases of US and European bonds as reserve accumulation slows. Russia has slashed its holding by a third to support growth at home. Even Japan's state pension fund has become a net seller of bonds for the first time this year the country's population ages.

Japan's public debt will reach 200pc of GDP next year. Warnings by the Japan's DPJ opposition party that, if elected this autumn, it would not purchase any more US debt unless issued in yen, is a sign that the political mood in Asia is turning hostile to US policy.

There is no evidence yet that foreigners are in the process of dumping US Treasuries. Brad Setser from the US Council on Foreign Relations said global central banks added $60bn to their US holdings in the first three weeks of May.

This is bitter-sweet for Washington. It suggests that private buyers are pulling out, leaving foreign powers as buyer-of-last resort.

We just have to hope that G20 creditors agree to put a clothes peg on their nose and keep buying Western debt until the crisis passes, for the sake of the world.

23 May 2009

Ladies and Gentlemen: the United States Is Insolvent


"We are out of money." Barack Obama May 23, 2009

Obama openly says what anyone with common sense has known for quite some time: the US is broke, and will not be able to honor its financial and fiduciary obligations.

The question remains how the US restructures that debt and how big a haircut the debt holders will take.

20%? 30%? More like upwards of 50% at least in real terms.

And who are these debt holders?

Anyone who hold Treasury debt obligations and financial assets, from the Long Bond to the US Dollar, and assets guaranteed by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.

Technically the debt will be serviced and the interest paid according to the terms of the agreements, with devalued US dollars.

The process will continue until the debt is restructured and the dollar is replaced with a new dollar. This may take some years.

The Incontrovertible Truth About Debt, Deleveraging, Devaluation and Recovery

Why the US Has Gone Broke: Chalmers Johnson

Marc Faber Sees Bankruptcy for the US

In 2009 the US Will Be Forced to Selectively Default and Devalue Its Debt

A Credit Bubble of Historic Proportion

Shhhhhh.... Here is a Secret Worth Remembering

Didn't you just know they would spill it over a long holiday weekend?

Don't be too concerned, there will be more spin and denials after this trial balloon has been floated, and life will go on.

"Oh, that's not what Obama meant. He means we have a problem but there are the means and the time to address and repair it before it becomes too great."

People have an enormous capacity for delusion bordering on selective amnesia. Go back and read the posts on this blog starting in September 2008. Then reflect on what has been said recently on Wall Street and you will see what we mean.

We are now in the endgame of an historic credit bubble that will result in a currency crisis of epic proportions.


DrudgeReport
'WE'RE OUT OF MONEY'
Sat May 23 2009 10:32:18 ET

In a sobering holiday interview with C-SPAN, President Obama boldly told Americans: "We are out of money."

C-SPAN host Steve Scully broke from a meek Washington press corps with probing questions for the new president.

SCULLY: You know the numbers, $1.7 trillion debt, a national deficit of $11 trillion. At what point do we run out of money?

OBAMA: Well, we are out of money now. We are operating in deep deficits, not caused by any decisions we've made on health care so far. This is a consequence of the crisis that we've seen and in fact our failure to make some good decisions on health care over the last several decades.

So we've got a short-term problem, which is we had to spend a lot of money to salvage our financial system, we had to deal with the auto companies, a huge recession which drains tax revenue at the same time it's putting more pressure on governments to provide unemployment insurance or make sure that food stamps are available for people who have been laid off.

So we have a short-term problem and we also have a long-term problem. The short-term problem is dwarfed by the long-term problem. And the long-term problem is Medicaid and Medicare. If we don't reduce long-term health care inflation substantially, we can't get control of the deficit.

So, one option is just to do nothing. We say, well, it's too expensive for us to make some short-term investments in health care. We can't afford it. We've got this big deficit. Let's just keep the health care system that we've got now.

Along that trajectory, we will see health care cost as an overall share of our federal spending grow and grow and grow and grow until essentially it consumes everything"...


Update on the Political Continuum: Obama Moves Sharply Towards Nationalizaton


Obama is moving slowly but surely towards more overt state socialism.

There is an interesting twist of crony capitalism in his Administration especially from his economics team. It will be interesting to see how that develops. Will it become something akin to the post-Soviet Russian oligarchs with official state ties?



22 May 2009

Regional Federal Reserve Banks Think the Geithner-Bernanke-Summers Plan Is Failing the Real Economy


Torches on the right, and pitchforks on the left.

Have a happy Memorial Day weekend to all our readers in the States. US markets will be closed on Monday.

Perhaps a reminder that the freedom won by those who came before us at so dear a price should not be dealt away so easily out of fear and greed.

"But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate - we can not consecrate - we can not hallow - this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us - that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion - that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain - that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom - and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth."

CentralBankNews.com
Why the regional feds are up in arms
22 May 2009

A number of presidents of regional Federal Reserve banks and senior staff have recently expressed dissent from the official line taken by the US authorities in managing the banking crisis.

This development may surprise central bankers in other countries, used as they are to enforcing conformity among officials of their organisation to the official line. It would be astonishing, for example, if several governors of euro-area central banks were to suddenly challenge Jean-Claude Trichet's handling of the crisis or the crisis management policies of governments of euro member states. Collective responsibility and cover-ups are the watchwords in Europe.

The heads of the district fed banks are particularly concerned with the inequities and inefficiencies arising from official protection of banks deemed too big to fail.

Hoenig speaks out -

In April, Tom Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Fed, said that actions that had been taken in an attempt to protect the largest US institutions from failure risked "prolonging the crisis and increasing its cost."

Support for firms considered too big to fail had provided them with a competitive advantage and subsidised their growth with taxpayer funds. They were, he said, not only too big but also "too complex and too politically influential to supervise on a sustained basis without a clear set of rules constraining their actions."

To those who might be surprised at such forthright criticism from a senior official, he reminded his listeners that the 12 regional banks were set up by Congress "specifically to address the populist outcry against concentrated power on Wall Street." He added: "Its structure reflects the system of checks and balances that serves us well at all levels of government, and it is the reason I am here today able to express an alternative view."

- Lacker protests

A few weeks later another senior Federal Reserve official also asserted that the implicit guarantee that the government would step in and save those institutions deemed too big to fail was a key cause of the current economic malaise.

Speaking at the Asian Banker Summit in Beijing on 11 May, Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Fed, said that the existence of the financial safety net created incentives for too-big-to-fail institutions to pay little attention to some of the biggest risks.

"Their tendency to underprice such risk exposures reduces market participants' incentive to prepare against and prevent the liquidity disruptions that are financial crises, thus increasing the likelihood of crises."

It was, Lacker said, "worth noting that some large firms that appear to have benefited from implicit safety-net support were heavily involved in the securitisation of risky mortgages."

Lacker said that the implicit belief that some institutions were too big to fail had built up over the years in response to a series of events and government actions involving large financial institutions.

- and Stern maintains his criticism

Gary Stern, the president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve has also been a vociferous critic of the Fed's bank bailouts. Writing with Ron Feldman, the senior vice president for supervision, regulation and credit at the Minneapolis Fed, for a book entitled Towards a New Framework for Financial Stability (published by Central Banking Publications), Stern said that the Fed was right to come to Bear's rescue, but criticised the decision to expand its safety net as "not subtle or implied." "Uninsured creditors of other large financial firms may now have heightened expectations of receiving government support if these firms get into trouble," he said.

More recently, in a statement to the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban affairs on 6 May, Stern returned to the subject: "If policymakers do not address TBTF [too big to fail], the United States will likely endure an inefficient financial system, slower economic growth, and lower living standards than otherwise would be the case."

Gary Stern is retiring as he turns 65 in a few months, the mandatory retirement age for senior officials in the reserve banks.

Contrary to public perception, the 12 regional Fed banks are not government agencies. Nor are they private banks. Each is owned by member commercial banks.


21 May 2009

The US Dollar and a Paradigm Shift in the Markets


From Warren Pollock:

A simple grid shows how the USD and the Stock Market have moved together in different ways during different economic times. Today we saw the USD down in a huge way with the Stock Market Weak.. Are we seeing the pendulum shift once again as the stress of derivatives and Insolvent municipalities hatch out. Are we a bailout nation? And Will the world bail us out?



British Economy Founders, Standard and Poor's Dictates Terms


This is certainly the big news for the day, although the markets are trying to slough it off, and spin the bright side of nearly anything.

What particularly strikes one is the almost ominous warning from US-based Standard and Poor's that the downgrade may be contingent on the outcome of the next British elections.

"Give me control over a nation's currency, and I care not who makes its laws"
And these days a credit rating for a debtor is as good as currency.

While we are working the math, it should be apparent to even an economist that the debt side of the American consumer balance sheet is not sustainable, and that future income will be used to pay down that debt to manageable levels.

The implications for this are enormous. But its good to have the world's sovereign currency, to be the king of finance.

AFP
S&P issues warning on UK economy credit rating

LONDON (AFP) — Standard and Poor's warned Thursday that the British economy's top-level 'AAA' credit rating was under threat and revised down its outlook due to soaring public debt, sending financial markets reeling.

The international ratings agency said it downgraded the outlook to "negative" from "stable" because of the country's "deteriorating public finances" amid a deep recession in Britain and elsewhere.

S&P also warned in a statement that the change may lead to a downgrade of Britain's cherished 'AAA' sovereign credit rating -- a mark of its financial standing in the world and a major concern in any move to raise funds.

"This is the first major country to get a negative outlook, and that's significant," said Bilal Hafeez, global head of currencies research at Deutsche Bank in London.

In reaction to the news, London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares dived by more than 3.0 percent in late afternoon trade.

And on the foreign exchange market, the British pound fell back sharply to 1.55 to the dollar, as traders hedged themselves against the chance of a damaging ratings downgrade....

However, the agency also forecast that the government debt burden could reach nearly 100 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2013.

"A government debt burden of that level, if sustained, would in Standard & Poor's view be incompatible with an 'AAA' rating," warned the agency.

Official data released Thursday showed Britain's public deficit ballooned to a record 8.5 billion pounds (9.6 billion euros, 13.22 billion dollars) in April as the government bailed out banks and the recession slashed tax revenues.

At the same time, public debt as a proportion of GDP surged to 53.2 percent in April, compared with 42.9 percent at the end of the same month last year.

S&P warned that the ratings could be downgraded following Britain's next general election that must be held by mid-2010.

"The rating could be lowered if we conclude that, following the election, the next government's fiscal consolidation plans are unlikely to put the UK debt burden on a secure downward trajectory over the medium term," S&P credit analyst David Beers said.

"Conversely, the outlook could be revised back to stable if comprehensive measures are implemented to place the public finances on a sustainable footing."

A spokesman for the British Treasury said the government was planning to halve the public deficit within five years.

A downgrade of a credit rating can have significant consequences for a country, pushing up the interest rates demanded by investors to buy new debt which is increasingly being issued to help cover soaring budget deficits.

Britain's economy is shrinking at its fastest pace in almost 30 years. GDP contracted by 1.9 percent during the first three months of 2009 after a slump of 1.6 percent in the last quarter of 2008.

20 May 2009

US Dollar Weekly Chart




Bailing On Britain


The survey reported below indicates that many Britains are taking serious steps to leave their country because of the economic conditions and political considerations.

A bit overstated perhaps, and talking their book, but certainly a trend worth watching.

We cannot help but wonder if and when a similar emigration will take place in the US. Typically the movement has been within the United States, as in the great movement of people from the center of the country to the coasts in the 1930's.

Have you seriously considered leaving the US within the next four years, seriously enough to actually do some preliminary planning? If so, for what destination?



TheMoveChannel
Mass exodus from UK
Catherine Deshayes
Friday, May 15, 2009

New research has found that a whopping 11 million Brits are thinking of taking a job overseas within the next two years - a significant dent in the population - and a fifth of those would choose a new life down under...

Britain is experiencing the greatest exodus of its own nationals in recent history while immigration is at unprecedented levels, new figures show.

In 2007, 207,000 British citizens - one every three minutes - left the country and currency specialist Foreign Currency Direct has revealed that one in four working Brits are now looking to leave the country for sunnier climes and better job opportunities.

More British live abroad than any other nationality and the levels of emigration are now the same as those seen in the late-1950s when the £10 Poms left for Australia.

An increase in tax levelled at high wage earners coupled with rising UK unemployment is thought to be partly behind the mass exodus.

The research found that men are almost twice as likely as women to opt for a job overseas and moving abroad was most popular with Brits aged between 18 and 30 and also those in the 51 to 60 age bracket, perhaps seeking a better lifestyle for their retirement.

With the number of unemployed in Birmingham higher than in any other major UK city, people living in the Midlands are subsequently the most likely to look for a job overseas - 17 per cent of them compared to just 13 per cent in Wales and the South West.

The majority of people planned to head for a country with a warmer climate, more days of sunshine and those that were English speaking. A fifth of people named Australia as their top choice; one in six selected the USA and one in ten chose New Zealand. Canada was also a popular choice.

Peter S. Ellis, Chief Executive of Foreign Currency Direct, said, "As people struggle to find jobs, it is no wonder that Brits are considering bailing out the UK.

"In the last year, Foreign Currency Direct has seen an 37 per cent increase in the number of clients transferring funds to Australia and the USA as Britons look overseas for a better quality of life."