Trend Change: Official Purchases from Central Banks Supporting Gold Price

Starting in 1989, the world's Central Banks became steady net sellers of their gold reserves which had been accumulated over the years.

In addition to official gold sales, the banks also began to engage in gold leasing contract with bullion banks such as J. P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, et al. The gold was leased, and the bullion bank sells it in the market, paying the lease difference in a sort of gold carry trade.

And now for something completely different, it appears that the world's central banks may once again become net buyers of gold, after a twenty year campaign of selling gold from their vaults into the public markets, creating a steady downward pressure on the price of gold, that contributed to its long bear market.

There is some thought that the central bank gold sales had been designed to support the strong dollar as the reserve currency of the central banks. Gold had been viewed as a threat. Documents which have been disclosed and quotations from the transcripts of central bank meetings do support a concern that the price of gold could rise, destabilizing the fiat regime which had been in place since the US went off the international gold standard in 1971.

Starting in 2001, gold began a bull market based in part by the decline of the US dollar as the undisputed reserve currency of the world. And now the banks are reconsidering their position, and in some cases nervous central bankers seeking to recover their leased bullion, even adding to their reserves by new purchases.

This is not to imply that gold will replace the dollar. Rather, if the intended target is indeed the SDR, which comes up for rebalancing in 2010, banks may need to have gold on hand since it is thought to be favored as a component of the basket of currencies of which the new SDR will be created.

With regard to the proposed IMF sale of 403 tons of gold, there is speculation that this amount may be spoken for already by a few central banks who wish to convert some of their existing US dollar reserves to gold. At a market price of $1,050 per ounce, that would be a total sale of about $13.7 billion. That would barely make a dent in China's dollar reserves should be they so inclined to cut a check.

And of course there are the usual rumours of bullion banks who are heavily 'naked short' gold, having sold the leased product, and are unable to buy physical bullion in size with which to deliver it. There is also some talk of bullion banks having engaged in 'fractional gold' sales to customers holding unallocated bullion. This is cited as one reason why the COMEX in the US has a rule that allows deliver in the futures markets to be made in paper,

Whatever the truth may actually turn out to be, there can be no disputing that an end to twenty years of steady selling of gold, a relatively small and tight market compared to most others, in which central gold reserves represent a significant source of supply, is significant news indeed.

"In its just released Gold Survey 2009 GFMS suggested that the official sector in aggregate became a net buyer in the second quarter of 2009 and forecast that the second half of the year would see further net purchases. This represents a remarkable change of direction for a market that has been used to absorbing substantial volumes of gold sold by central banks over the last decade."

"Over the next year or two this new trend may be obscured somewhat by the planned sales of 403 tonnes of IMF gold, assuming, of course, that there is no off-market transfer of some or all of this bullion to an official sector buyer, something we think improbable but by no means impossible. Once the IMF sales programme is completed, however, we would expect the official sector as a whole to have a broadly neutral impact on the market. This would represent a return to the situation prevailing in the 1970s and 1980s when the official sector was a net buyer in some years and a net seller in others. Besides the obvious supply/demand implications for gold, such a change from net sales to something close to ‘neutrality’ would be highly positive for gold prices, as it ought to provide a major boost to sentiment and confidence in the yellow metal."

GFMS Report

“Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.” Alan Greenspan, July 24, 1998

A 'fractional reserve' bullion bank would be unnerved by this trend, with visions of potential insolvency if it continues and they are not able to cover their obligations. Talking their book would require them to be quite negative, in the hopes of creating supply in the form of a decent pullback, allowing them to cover their 'short positions' and failed to hedge them adequately.

The biggest forward hedger in the sector, Barrick Gold, was recently forced to capitulate and announce the need to raise billions to buy out of their forward obligations. This still does not help those who are in need of the physical product.

The situation in the silver market is even more potentially explosive, since the CFTC has allowed two or three banks to assume enormous short positions, unprecedented for any other commodity market, amounting to a massive naked short without any conceivable hope of being supplied at today's market prices. But as long as they can keep a few steps ahead of the need to deliver the goods, the game can go on.

A truly remarkable financial system, which can only serve to puzzle future generations. "What were they thinking?"

Where David Einhorn Sees Value in Today's Markets

Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn was speaking today at the 5th Value Investing Congress in New York City.

Two years ago he appeared as a highlight lecture of the show, and laid out his reasons for shorting Lehman Brothers stock. Needless to say there was quite a bit of attention to what he had to say today.

Here are some highlights:

1. A very bleak outlook for the US economy

2. US has a lack of political will to adopt needed financial reforms.

3. Right now he would like to hold gold rather than cash because "gold benefits from poor fiscal policy."

4. Buying long dated options on much higher interest rates in the US and Japan

5. Singled out GE as thwarting financial reform due to their intense lobbying efforts.

Transcript of David Einhorn's presentation.

Why the Federal Government Seized the Monetary Gold in 1933

The question of confication reappears every time gold rallies, from those with enough history to be able to throw out a few facts and sound plausible, but not enough grounding in history and the law to actually place them in any sort of reasonable context.

Below is a 'reprise' of a blog entry we posted early this year on the topic.

The Feds acted on gold because at the time it WAS the currency of the country, and the government had some proper claims on it. When the US left the gold standard it relinquished all such claims, as gold became purely private property. Except perhaps if you are holding gold American eagles, which bear the patina of 'currency.'

It should also be noted that the sole action of the government was to ask for the gold, to withdraw convertibility of gold notes from the domestic public, and to monitor the activity of safe deposit boxes taking certain categories of gold, and essentially nothing else. There were no investigations, searches, or even active prosecutions for non-compliance.

The purpose of the confiscation was to prepare the way for a formal devaluation of the dollar while it was still on the gold standard.

Could the government try to confiscate the gold from private citizens again? Certainly. Although unless it is part of a return to the gold standard with adequate recompense, it would be little more than the theft of private property.

The government can also ask you to place an RFID chip in your head before you can buy anything or drive a car, ask for your children and place them in youth camps, bind you over to your creditors in indentured servitude, ask you to house homeland security troops in your home with no payment, and request your presence on a freight train for relocation to New Mexico.

There is a wide difference between what *could* be done, what is likely to be done, and what people might consider to be unreasonable enough to resist.

Talk of confiscation invariably occurs when gold rallies because it is a way for those who rode the rally to climb the wall of worry and those who missed the rally to feel better about their lost opportunity.


The Last Time the Feds Devalued the Dollar to Save the Banks
14 January 2009

We dipped once again into the Federal Reserve Bulletin Publication from June, 1934 to take a closer look at the growth of the monetary base, and found an interesting graphic that shows the accounting for the January 1934 devaluation of the dollar and the subsequent result on Bank Reserves in the Federal Reserve System.

As you will recall, the Gold Act, or more properly Executive Order 6102 of April 5, 1933, required Americans to surrender their gold coinage and certificates to the Federal Reserve Banks by May 1, 1933. There were no prosecutions for non-compliance except one benchmark case which was brought voluntarily by a person who wished to challenge the act in court.

After a substantial portion of the gold was turned in by US citizens and taken from their bank based safe deposit boxes, the government officially devalued the dollar from 20.67 to 35.00 per ounce in the Gold Reserve Act of January 31, 1934.

The proceeds from this devaluation were used to provide a significant boost to the Federal Reserve member bank positions as shown in the first chart below.

The inflation visited on the American people because of this action helped to take the CPI as it was then measured up 1200 basis points from about -8% to +4% by the end of 1933. To somewhat offset the monetary inflation the Fed also contracted the Monetary Base which served the nascent recovery in the real economy rather poorly and is viewed widely as one of a series of policy errors.

Considering that the actions did little for the employment situation this was painful medicine indeed to those who were dependent on wages.



Fortunately at the same time FDR was initiating the New Deal programs which, despite continual opposition from a Republican minority in Congress, managed to provide a small measure of relief for the 20+% public that was suffering from unemployment and wage stagnation.

People ask frequently "Will the government seize gold again?"

While there is no certainty involved in anything if a government begins to overturn the law and seize private property, one has to ask for the context and details first to understand what happened and why, to understand the precedent.

Technically, the government did not engage in a pure seize of private property, since at that time the US was on the gold standard, and much of the gold holdings of US citizens were in the form of gold coinage and certificates.

Governments always make the case that the currency is their property and that the user is merely holding it as a medium of exchange. The foundation of the argument was that the government required to recall its gold to strengthen the backing of the US dollar against the net outflows of gold for international trade. The devaluation helped with this as well, since dollars brought less gold for trade balances.

People also ask, "Why didn't the government just revalue the dollar without trying to recall all the gold from the American public?"

The answer would seem to be that this would have been more just, more equitable recompense for the public. The Treasury could have purchased gold from the public to support its foreign trade needs.

But it would have left much less liquidity for the banks.

One can make a better case that the recall of the gold, with the subsequent revaluation to benefit a small segment of the population in the Banks, was a form of seizure of wealth without due compensation. Hence the lack of active prosecutions.

So, will the government take back gold again to save the banks by devaluing the dollar?

Highly unlikely, because they not only do not need to this, since the dollar is no longer backed by gold, and is a form of secular property except perhaps for gold eagles, but they do not have to, because they are devaluing the dollar already to save the banks.

This time the confiscation of wealth to save the banks is called TARP.

If one thinks about it, US Dollars are being created and provided directly to the banks to boost their free reserves significantly, at a scale comparable and beyond to 1933-34.

The confiscation of wealth is being spread among all holders of US dollars and dollar assets, foreign and domestic, in the more subtle form of monetary inflation.

Granted, the government must be more opaque to mask their actions in order to sustain confidence in the dollar while the devaluation occurs, but this is exactly what is happening, and all that is required to happen in a fiat regime.

There is no need to seize widely held exogenous commodities like gold and oil, but merely dampen any bellwether signals that a significant devaluation of the dollar is once gain being perpetrated on the American people in order to save the banks.

Its fascinating to look carefully at this next chart below.



First, notice the big drop in gold in circulation of 9.8 million ounces, or roughly 36% of the measured inventory at the end of 1932. Think someone was front-running the dollar devaluation? We suspect that the order went out to start pulling in the gold stock to the banks.

The reduction in gold in circulation AFTER the announcement of the Gold Act in April would be about 3.9 million ounces, or roughly 22% of the gold remaining in circulation in March 1933.

Considering that all gold coinage held by banks in the vaults was automatically seized, the voluntary compliance rate is not all that impressive. We are not sure how much of this was being held in overseas hands by non-US entities.

But beyond a doubt, there was a unjust, if not illegal, seizure of wealth by requiring citizen to turn in their gold to the banks, which was then revalued at the beginning of 1934 by 69% from 20.67 to 35 dollars.

It would have been much more equitable to devalue the dollar and to change the basis for dollar/gold first, before requiring private citizens to surrender their holdings. But of course, this would have lessened the liquidity available for direct infusion into the Federal Reserve banks.

Gold: Until the Banks Are Restrained and Balance Is Restored

Gold has apparently broken out of a big inverse Head and Shoulder formation, possibly an ascending triangle if you prefer that for reliability. In combination, as they often are, this is a powerful sign of buying pressure, accumulation and a sharp rise in price.

The targets we saw on the Gold Long Term chart posted here on September 15 call out a range of targets for this leg in the bull market from 1310 to 1350 level.



Here is a closer look at an updated chart showing the successful breakout from the Inverse H&S pattern. The target of 1310 now seems more confident for this leg of the gold bull market.

The formation will be in play as long as the 'secondary neckline' is not violated on a weekly close.



It is always more difficult to move from the charts to a more fundamental macro analysis and ask, "What does this mean? What is the market telling us with these sharp moves higher in gold and silver?"

And of course there is the most common question of all, "How far can it go?"

This is where the controversy begins, because gold is stepping on the toes of those who misunderstand the existing forces of demand deflation and monetary inflation in the United States, who fundamentally do not understand money and wealth, and their differences.

It is also bothering the financial commentators and analysts who, in addition to mouthing the words and sentiments that other people provide for them, sometimes have a thought of their own and must wonder, "Is what I am saying true? And if it is, why is gold doing this? Should I be fearful of my position if the markets fail?"

We have tried to portray some potential causes for the sweeping move in gold. One must first remember that this is nothing new. Gold is in an obvious and sustained bull market, that has it roots when the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan decided to print its way out of a series of crises beginning in the mid 1990's, and started rising in earnest with the Fed's monetary and regulatory errors in 2002.

Gold, despite the obvious efforts of the monied interests to disparage it publicly while accumulating it privately, is rising because the US dollar is being used badly, is being weakened by the failing schemes of a corrupt combination of the government and financial interests.

This is why there has been no serious reform, no meaningful investigations or indictments in what will surely be remembered in history as a financial fraud of a magnitude with the South Sea Bubble in England and the Mississippi Bubble in France.

There are going to be more crises, more dislocations associated with this, despite the best efforts of the financial engineers to paper it over, and the captive media to cover it up, dismiss it, and move along to the next asset bubble, this time in stocks.

This is what gold is telling us. It is saying that the era of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency is over, with all that this implies in the balance of power in the world as it has existed since the end of the Second World War. And it is occurring for some very good reasons which the US media and the Congress seem to prefer to ignore.

Gold is where people put their wealth when they are confronted with uncertainty, with asymmetric information, when they are afraid; when the statists and the crony capitalists are preying on the savings of the people. Gold is a refuge, a safe haven, when there is good reason to be concerned about your currency, your wealth, and your future; when lies are in the ascendancy and truth and justice are scarce commodities.

This is because gold is one of the few stores of value that is compact, universal, portable, and contingent upon the full faith and credit of nothing but itself.

And so the rally in gold will likely continue until the banks are restrained, the financial system is reformed, and balance is restored to the economy. When the media once again speaks freely and truthfully and openly, when justice is done and the guilty are judged, and when the people can more reasonably place their confidence in the words and actions of those who hold the stewardship of their nation under the Constitution which they have sworn to uphold.

Or, when the Constitution is tossed, and freedom is extinguished, because it is no longer convenient to a people given over to self-deception, egoism, greed, mere anarchy, and nothingness.

"In Egypt's sandy silence, all alone,
Stands a gigantic leg, which far off throws
The only shadow that the Desert knows:
I am great Ozymandias, saith the stone,
The King of Kings; this mighty city shows
The wonders of my hand. The City's gone,
Nought but the leg remaining to disclose
The site of this forgotten Babylon.

We wonder, and some hunter may express
Wonder like ours, when thro' the wilderness
Where London stood, holding the wolf in chase,
He meets some fragments huge, and stops to guess
What powerful but unrecorded race
Once dwelt in that annihilated place."

Horace Smith, 1 February 1818

China May Lead Coalition of Nations to Topple the US Petrodollar

It does make sense that this would happen, and many including ourselves have been forecasting this outcome as a viable trigger for a significant, but orderly, dollar devaluation.

The US has violated the premise under which the Dollar served as the world's reserve currency. As Alan Greenspan himself said, the US Dollar regime worked because it was managed as though it was still under an external monetary standard, mimicking the rigor of a hard currency while maintaining a flexibility for monetary policy adjustment. We questioned the veracity of that claim when he made it, but it was the appearance, if not the reality, of responsibility and discipline that made things work for the monetary wizards.

Ironically enough, the closet goldbug Mr. Greenspan shattered that discipline with a gearing up of financial engineering in response to economic and trading crises starting with 1987 and reaching higher notes with LTCM and the Asian currency crisis.

China devalued the yuan against the dollar, and was able to promote an aggressive program of industrialization through multinationals like Walmart who desired cheap labor. The Chinese were able to persuade Bill Clinton and then George Bush to grant them favored nation trading status, without the condition of a freely traded currency. This allowed China to import manufacturing jobs, and made the US politicians and financiers happy with their personal donations and profits.

The dogs of war were loosed by the Fed in 2002 with a remarkably reckless expansion of debt through over easy interest rates, with an explosion of fraudulently rated US dollar financial assets from an Anglo-American banking system grown utterly corrupt and in full bloom of a credit bubble.

Bernanke has taken the dollar into its endgame, while insiders grab fistfuls of dollars and quietly sell their financial assets behind the scenes during this recent market rally. Obama and his team are either corrupt or incompetent. The same can be said of his two predecessors, at least.

"The capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them."
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

However this plays out over the next nine years, it will be history in the making, and interesting to say the least. It will be neither straightforward, nor easy, nor transparent to the public. But it seems inevitable that the days of Empire based on dollars backed by oil and global military reach are over and gone-- until the next time.

The Independent UK
The demise of the dollar
By Robert Fisk
Tuesday, 6 October 2009

In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

The Americans, who are aware the meetings have taken place – although they have not discovered the details – are sure to fight this international cabal which will include hitherto loyal allies Japan and the Gulf Arabs. Against the background to these currency meetings, Sun Bigan, China's former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. "Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable," he told the Asia and Africa Review. "We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security."

This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic war between the US and China over Middle East oil – yet again turning the region's conflicts into a battle for great power supremacy. China uses more oil incrementally than the US because its growth is less energy efficient. The transitional currency in the move away from dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may well be gold. An indication of the huge amounts involved can be gained from the wealth of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar who together hold an estimated $2.1 trillion in dollar reserves.

The decline of American economic power linked to the current global recession was implicitly acknowledged by the World Bank president Robert Zoellick. "One of the legacies of this crisis may be a recognition of changed economic power relations," he said in Istanbul ahead of meetings this week of the IMF and World Bank. But it is China's extraordinary new financial power – along with past anger among oil-producing and oil-consuming nations at America's power to interfere in the international financial system – which has prompted the latest discussions involving the Gulf states.

Brazil has shown interest in collaborating in non-dollar oil payments, along with India. Indeed, China appears to be the most enthusiastic of all the financial powers involved, not least because of its enormous trade with the Middle East.

China imports 60 per cent of its oil, much of it from the Middle East and Russia. The Chinese have oil production concessions in Iraq – blocked by the US until this year – and since 2008 have held an $8bn agreement with Iran to develop refining capacity and gas resources. China has oil deals in Sudan (where it has substituted for US interests) and has been negotiating for oil concessions with Libya, where all such contracts are joint ventures.

Furthermore, Chinese exports to the region now account for no fewer than 10 per cent of the imports of every country in the Middle East, including a huge range of products from cars to weapon systems, food, clothes, even dolls. In a clear sign of China's growing financial muscle, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, yesterday pleaded with Beijing to let the yuan appreciate against a sliding dollar and, by extension, loosen China's reliance on US monetary policy, to help rebalance the world economy and ease upward pressure on the euro.

Ever since the Bretton Woods agreements – the accords after the Second World War which bequeathed the architecture for the modern international financial system – America's trading partners have been left to cope with the impact of Washington's control and, in more recent years, the hegemony of the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency.

The Chinese believe, for example, that the Americans persuaded Britain to stay out of the euro in order to prevent an earlier move away from the dollar. But Chinese banking sources say their discussions have gone too far to be blocked now. "The Russians will eventually bring in the rouble to the basket of currencies," a prominent Hong Kong broker told The Independent. "The Brits are stuck in the middle and will come into the euro. They have no choice because they won't be able to use the US dollar." (Look for the NWO to start making a stronger play to control the EU - Jesse)

Chinese financial sources believe President Barack Obama is too busy fixing the US economy to concentrate on the extraordinary implications of the transition from the dollar in nine years' time. The current deadline for the currency transition is 2018.

The US discussed the trend briefly at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh; the Chinese Central Bank governor and other officials have been worrying aloud about the dollar for years. Their problem is that much of their national wealth is tied up in dollar assets.

"These plans will change the face of international financial transactions," one Chinese banker said. "America and Britain must be very worried. You will know how worried by the thunder of denials this news will generate."

Iran announced late last month that its foreign currency reserves would henceforth be held in euros rather than dollars. Bankers remember, of course, what happened to the last Middle East oil producer to sell its oil in euros rather than dollars. A few months after Saddam Hussein trumpeted his decision, the Americans and British invaded Iraq.

The Utility of Gold and Silver Over the Past 200 Years

A bit of an oversimplification as one might expect for a short video, but rather effective in making its several of its points. Some interesting data as well.

Warren Buffett has asked "What utility does gold have?"

Since his views are respected and he is unusually successful, it is important to consider this question.

The utility of gold is that it resists the manipulation of the statists, which is why they hate it. It provides a store of wealth that is difficult for the state to confiscate through debasement. Gold and silver have represented the instruments of freedom and safety, a secure store of wealth, for individuals faced with adversity and uncertainty over thousands of years.

For quite some time the various pieces of evidence with regard to the Central Banks and gold have been becoming public. It seems to this reader, based on a careful search and consideration of the facts, that the attempt to control the price of gold and to a lesser extent silver by some of the Banks, led by the Brits and the Yanks, is almost certain as an adjunct in their efforts at financial engineering.

But the Banks are failing. They are failing in particular since the market break of 2000 when the first of the post Asian financial crisis bubbles collapsed. They are being broken, once again, by the physical buying coming in particular from Asia and Europe, where currency risk is a familiar concept. Most American go through their lives never having handled another currency except the dollar, and their education in finance, and even their own history, is sadly lacking. For them, the US dollar is the monetary alpha and the omega, and its decline is incomprehensible.

We are now in the midst of a new financial bubble in world equity markets, and it too will collapse.

This is not to say the future will be straightforward and simple. It will not.

People sometmes worry about government confiscation. Since gold no longer has any official status in the US except as private property, this is a bit of a red herring. True, government can try to seize any of your private property not just gold. It can try to force you to wear a number, or imbed a chip in your head, to buy and sell, it can even try to pack you on a freight train for resettlement in New Mexico. The question is not what the state can try to do, but rather, what you will let them do and how you will respond to it.

At the moment the US dollar remains the linchpin of the Anglo-American financial oligarchy. That is it failing is probably one of the great issues facing world stability today.

Right now the Dollar is the subject of an aggressive carry trade, with traders selling it short to buy other assets. This obviously sets up the potential for another short term dollar squeeze such as we saw last year when the Eurobanks were devastated by the failure of the toxic dollar assets on their balance sheets which had to be paid in full in dollars to their depositors.

A reversal in the dollar and the collapse of carry trade would shake world equity markets to their core as the gamblers are forced to unwind positions. The vampire squid and associates would probably benefit, but many would suffer. In today's environment, that makes the possibility of this happening even more likely in our book.

But then again, sometimes things do go down into a long spiral, and finally are priced at 30 on a Friday, and open up on Monday at 2, or 'no bids.' It happens. But usually it happens in slow motion at first with national currencies. It is much easier to boil a batch of frogs slowly than to wade in and start chopping heads.

Likelihood is a dollar rally at some point if stocks start unwinding. And then things get interesting, and ugly. Not with a bounce, but a 'splat,' with interest rates running to levels that would make your jaw drop.

For a longer view and a warning likely to fall on deaf ears, the more the oligarchs and elitists take the world's people through these cycles, the greater they need to pay attention to one lesson that ripples throughout history: the trick is not only how to make a great fortune through theft and trickery, but how to hold on to it, and very likely your life, when the tide turns and the people have finally had enough.



Gold and Silver Video

US Dollar Long Term Chart and a Scenario for Dollar Devaluation

Here is a long term chart of the US Dollar Index.

The recent rally in the US dollar completed at an almost perfect 38.2% fibonacci retracement from the 70.70 bottom. In part this rally was part of the short squeeze in eurodollars created by the collapse of US dollar financial CDO deposits held by customers at European banks.

The Dollar Rally and the Deflationary Imbalances in the US Dollar Holdings of Overseas Banks

The target for the active H&S top from 121 is still 65. The Key Pivot remains 81, the high end of band which had been the support level held by the dollar for almost 20 years. While the dollar is below 81 the H&S top is active and working.

We have been trying to calculate a new lower bound for the dollar decline from the charts. Reason tells us that at some point the dollar decline and economic imbalances may lead to a devaluation of the dollar.

People have asked, "How can the dollar be devalued? After all, there is no fixed standard."

Well, the dollar can decline considerably in purchasing power of real goods, as it has been doing for many years. However, the dollar can be devalued against its only true measure as a fiat currency: itself.

A formal devaluation of the dollar would be the discontinuance and reissue of the US dollar as a 'new dollar' with some preset exchange rate.

A likely figure would be 100:1, that is, 100 old dollars for 1 new dollar, possibly to be called 'the amero' as some have suggested or simply the 'dollar' as the US dollars currently in use will be withdrawn from circulation. If this does not provide sufficient relief it might have to be repeated.

This is what happened to the Russian rouble on January 1, 1998 after a debt default. Since it is unlikely that the US default will be preceded by a hyperinflation and protracted period of instability, we think the 1000:1 ratio of reissuance used by Russia might be too severe for the dollar, most especially because of its position as the reserve currency.

However, if the new dollar is to be at least partially backed by gold at the insistence of its international trading partners, then 1000:1 seems to 'work' more effectively given the US gold reserves and projected new money supply. This might be accomplished in phases, or with a dual currency regime.

It should also be noted that devaluation alone does not fix economic problems. It is a form of debt default, more severe than mere inflation. After its reissuance in 1998, for example, the new Russian rouble quickly lost approximately 70% of its value against the dollar because the devaluation had not been accompanied by significant economic reform. It has since recovered through painful adjustment.

You should not believe that this scenario is possible for the US dollar, yet. After all, if it was generally accepted and believed that it would happen, a severe value decline would already be underway.

Fiat currencies traffic in confidence. This things tend to play out over months and years, not days, unless there is a precipitating event usually caused by exterior events. Even though there had been a Russian debt default in the 1990's, the rouble had been troubled by serious inflation for many years before that.

But the warning signs are here if you have the eyes to see them, as unlikely as it might seem. It will appear to be a 'no-brainer' to a future generation. "What were they thinking? How could they have been so blind? What made them think that it could go on like that forever?"

However, we are approaching levels of economic imbalance and unserviceable debt levels that should bring at least a bit of a chill in the dollar bulls, as a warning that all things of the earth pass away, as they have done, and will always do. Some things, however, endure longer than others because they are universal, and not particular to a time or place.

In an upcoming blog, we will attempt to explain why the debt destruction in the US, with a moderating of the growth of some of the money supply measures, is not and will not result in a strengthening dollar. We do not expect any one who 'believes' in deflation as espoused by some of the dollar bulls to accept this. After all, they ignore the dollar devaluation that occurred in the depths of the Great Depression, when a devaluation really meant something radical as it was done against a gold standard.

Hong Kong Bringing Its Gold Home From London

"There is precious treasure and oil in the house of the wise, but a fool consumes all that he has and saves none."
Proverbs 21:20

The People's Republic of China has been urging its citizens to convert some part of their savings into gold and silver, having recently liberalized the procedures by which individuals can obtain it.

Hong Kong has built a new world class bullion vault, and is repatriating its gold reserves from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), where some speculate it had been committed for sale many times over. Hong Kong wishes to become its own regional Asia market maker for bullion metals.

The rest of the world will rein in the Wall Street financial establishment, because the bankers have demonstrated an inability to manage their financial affairs honestly, and those of the world.

Strange times indeed, when the hard money capitalists are in Asia, and the fiat money oligarchs and statists are in the Anglo-American West.

Marketwatch
Hong Kong recalls gold reserves, touts high-security vault
By Chris Oliver
Sep 3, 2009, 6:22 a.m. EST

In a challenge to London, Asian states invited to store bullion closer to home

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring them to a high-security depository newly built at the city's airport, in a move that won praise from local traders Thursday.

The facility, industry professionals said, would support Hong Kong's emergence as a Swiss-style trading hub for bullion and would lessen London's status as a key settlement-and-storage center.

"Having a central government-sponsored vault would create a situation where you could conceivably look at Hong Kong as being a hub, where metal could be traded for the region," said Sunil Kashyap, managing director at Scotia Capital in Hong Kong, adding that the facility was the first with official government backing in the region...

Martin Hennecke: Protecting Your Wealth in Volatile Markets

"Hennecke stressed that investors should go for physical forms of gold and other
precious metals rather than "paper gold investment scheme where there isn't full
backing, where the metal might be leased out or used for derivatives. That's
crucial because there is 80 times more paper gold in the market than actual
physical metal in existence in the planet."

For the most part alternative currency trades remain 'highly specialized' investments, not often seen in the 401k, IRA, or the average brokerage account.

If gold and silver go mainstream, which they often will do in times of crisis of confidence, the rally may be rather impressive on short covering alone. Expect the exchanges to invoke special rules to allow for settlement of delivery obligation in cash or kind rather than bullion, and at artificially low, albeit significantly higher, prices.

But this may not help those who are holding gold in 'custodial accounts' where the same gold has been lent out to the market and sold, or is loosely mingled with multiples of uncertain ownership.

Can't happen? Who would have thought that one of the largest retail commodity brokerages, Refco, could roll over? Counter party risk is always an issue when you are 'off-exchange.'

“The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom."
Ralph Waldo Emerson

Go for Gold and Silver: Strategist
By CNBC
Wednesday, 2 Sep 2009 2:44 AM ET

China's key stock index recovered its poise on Tuesday, rising nearly 0.5 percent after diving 6.7 percent the day amid liquidity concerns and worries that lending growth may slow in the country. In August alone, the Shanghai Composite lost nearly 22 percent, snapping a seven-month winning streak.

If those stock gyrations are hard to stomach, there are other investment options to help ride out the wild swings in China, according to Martin Hennecke, associate director at Tyche.

For one, Hennecke liked convertible bonds in China, saying he is bullish on the Chinese economy given its fundamental strength, compared to Europe and the U.S. (No thank you for now, its a bubble and a bit less than free market environment, even given its bawdy good time with capitalism over the past ten years. - Jesse)

"Valuation is not as cheap anymore compared to the beginning of the year. Hong Kong-listed China companies are slightly cheaper than (those in) Shanghai," Hennecke said on CNBC Asia's "Protect Your Wealth". " One who plays more cautiously -- convertible bonds in China are an option."

Gold and silver ranked among Hennecke's top recommendations, as China, the world's largest gold buyer this year, is likely to buy more of the yellow metal going forward.

"Whether we see a further crisis or a recovery globally, with inflation coming back up again...gold should do quite well and it hasn't risen much this year yet," said Hennecke.

Hennecke stressed that investors should go for physical forms of gold and other precious metals rather than "paper gold investment scheme where there isn't full backing, where the metal might be leased out or used for derivatives. That's crucial because there is 80 times more paper gold in the market than actual physical metal in existence in the planet."

Hennecke also preferred exposure to direct agricultural commodities, as opposed to investing in commodities through equities, where markets have already rallied sharply.

"Agricultural commodity prices are similar to precious metals. (Prices) across board are mostly dropping, apart from sugar and a few items. So direct commodities are quite undervalued and quite cheap now," he explained. "Agricultural prices are likely to rise quite substantially."

Hennecke expected the investment environment to be volatile, as the U.S. will be saddled with a massive debt load over the next ten years.

"It's tricky to see where stock markets are heading, it depends on how fast inflation feeds through as a result of the debt problems." (Precisely correct, except for those who prefer to see what they have already decided *should* happen. They are often wrong, but rarely uncertain. - Jesse)

Paper, Scissors, Gold

As you may have heard recently, the Comex has asserted their right under their rules to deliver the equivalent paper interest in Exchange Traded Funds such as GLD in lieu of the delivery of physical bullion for those standing for delivery under the rules of the commodity exchange.

Is GLD really the same as physical bullion?

"...it appears that a lot of investors believe and trust that investing in GLD is the same thing as buying physical gold bullion. A close reading and analysis of the GLD Prospectus, however, reveals that investing in GLD is drastically different from owning gold. This analysis will show why GLD is nothing more than another form of a derivative security which is loaded with counter-party default risk."
Owning GLD Can Be Hazardous to Your Wealth

Here is a recent statement from Dennis Gartman who most often derides those he calls 'goldbugs.'

"To finish, we do agree that recent decisions to allow for the "delivery" of ETF shares in the stead of actual physical gold against a futures position does cause us some concern. Indeed, it causes us some very real concern, for if we stand for delivery of wheat we expect to receive wheat, not paper. The same holds true for delivery processes on the COMEX, and if GATA and the "Bugs" have a complaint it is this new decision by the COMEX. On this, we’ll grant that the "Bugs" have something to complain about." Dennis Gartman in The Gartman Letter

We have often said that when the real crisis of liquidity comes, and the final flight to safety from the credit bubble collapse begins in earnest, the exchanges will alter the rules to allow for cash and paper settlement of claims for bullion, which they cannot or will not be able to deliver at the agreed upon prices.

This is what makes the current structure of the short positions held by a few banks on the precious metals exchanges a 'racket,' a type of Ponzi scheme where the same thing is sold repeatedly with no means of satisfying the aggregate of the claims and ownership.

We are sure the Comex is "well capitalized," and will continue to be so, even as it is rocked by de facto delivery failures and the substitution of more paper to back up the general failure of paper.

The wheels of justice grind slowly but they grind exceedingly fine.

China Admits to Significantly Building Its Gold Reserves

Ben had suspected they were cheating when he found gold dust on their collar...

Financial Post
China admits to building up stockpile of gold
Alfred Cang and Tom Miles, Reuters
Friday, April 24, 2009

SHANGHAI/BEIJING - China revealed on Friday that it had secretly raised its gold reserves by three-quarters since 2003, increasing its holdings to 1,054 tonnes - or a pot worth about US$30.9-billion - and confirming years of speculation it had been buying.

Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, told Xinhua news agency in an interview that the country's reserves had risen by 454 tonnes from 600 tonnes since 2003, when China last adjusted its state gold reserves figure.

The confirmation of its surreptitious stockpiling is likely to fuel market talk about Beijing's ability to buy secretly and its ambitions for spending its nearly US$2-trillion pile of savings. And not just in gold: copper and other metals markets are booming thanks to China's barely-visible hand.

Speculation has gathered speed over the last year, since the tumbling dollar has threatened to weaken China's buying power - and give it yet more reason to diversify into gold, oil and metals.

Gold prices jumped on the news of Chinese buying and were up more than 1% on the day at US$912.05 an ounce at 0715 GMT. By a Reuters calculation, China's holding of gold would be worth around US$30.9-billion at current prices.

That accounts for only about 1.6% of China's total foreign exchange holdings and is little more than one-tenth of the value of the U.S. gold reserve, the world's biggest. It also means gold has slipped as a share of China's total reserves from about 2%, based on end-2003 prices.

Only six countries hold more than 1,000 tonnes, and China is ranked fifth, having leap-frogged Switzerland, Japan and the Netherlands with its announcement.

However, the International Monetary Fund and the SPDR Gold Trust exchange traded fund are even bigger, leaving China with the world's seventh-biggest pot of gold.

Several gold market participants said they thought China had bought on the international market, helping to absorb hundreds of tonnes sold off by central banks and the International Monetary Fund in recent years.

"China has been buying via government channels from South Africa, Russia and South America," said Ellison Chu, director of precious metals at Standard Bank in Hong Kong.

But Hu said the increase in China's stocks was achieved by buying on the domestic market and from domestic producers.

China is the world's largest gold producer and does not permit exports of gold ingots, only jewellery, leaving plentiful supplies for the domestic market.

China produced 282 tonnes of gold last year, meaning the state bought around one quarter of domestic production, assuming 454 tonnes increase in state purchases were spread out over the six years since China last reported a change in its holdings.

Despite the rumours, buying by the state was partially obscured by soaring demand for gold as an investment, especially after the bursting of the Shanghai stock market bubble last year.

Investment demand in China rose to 68.9 tonnes from 25.6 tonnes in 2007. But that was still less than one third of retail demand in India, where total bullion consumption topped 660 tonnes last year.

Hu said China recently reported the change in its gold holdings to the International Monetary Fund and would include the latest change in central bank reports and balance of payment statistics.

She did not say when China notified the IMF.

Although gold rose after Hu's comments were published, the price move was not a huge one for the highly liquid market. Prices had jumped by US$13 in the space of an hour on Thursday.

Gold market participants said the news signalled likely further buying by China.

"The comments indicate that China will buy more gold as reserve to improve its foreign reserve portfolio. This is a trend," said Yao Haiqiao, president of Longgold Asset Management.

Hou Huimin, vice general secretary of the China Gold Association, said China should build its reserves to 5,000 tonnes.

"It's not a matter of a few hundred, or 1,000 tonnes. China should hold more because of its new international status, and because of the financial crisis," he said.

"The financial crisis means the U.S. dollar value is changing fast, and it may retreat from being the international reserve currency. If that happens, whoever holds gold will be at an advantage."
The European Central Bank recommends its member banks hold 15% of their reserves in gold, but among Asian nations the percentage is far smaller, said Albert Cheng, World Gold Council managing director for the far east.

The Net Asset Value of Certain Gold and Silver Trusts and ETFs

GLD and SLV generally trade at a slight discount to spot because of their management fes. They are also used for arbitrage plays.

The premium on GTU is substantial as a result of the recent rally in gold. Personally I would not buy it at that level of premium preferring other investments.

World Buying In Gold Coins Soars

"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort."
Antony C. Sutton

"Gold has worked down from Alexander's time... When something holds good for two thousand years I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory."
Bernard M. Baruch

World mints report soaring demand for gold coins
Fri Mar 13, 2009 8:36am EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Mints around the world say demand for gold coins has risen sharply as interest in the precious metal soars on the back of financial instability and concerns over the inflation outlook.

The Royal Canadian Mint, which produces Maple Leaf bullion coins, said it quadrupled its production capacity late last year as demand for gold and silver bullion products leapt.

Gold was one of the few commodities to rise last year as turmoil in the financial sector sharpened investors' appetite for assets seen as a safe store of value, such as bullion.

Spot gold rallied to an 11-month high of $1,005.40 on February 20 as a slide in equity markets increased interest in the precious metal. Demand for physical gold products such as coins and bars has been particularly strong, traders say.

The United States Mint said sales of its one-ounce American Eagle gold bullion coins rocketed to 710,000 ounces in 2008, from 140,000 ounces a year before.

"The demand for gold and silver has been unprecedented," a spokesman for the Mint told Reuters.

The chairman of the French Mint, Christophe Beaux, said sales roughly doubled last year in value terms and are expected to rise by another 50 percent this year.

The 2009 catalog the mint had produced was almost entirely pre-sold, he said. The French Mint produces 100 euro gold coins, and plans to mint 10-ounce and 1-kilo coins this year.

In South Africa -- the world's second-largest gold producer -- Natanya van Niekerk, deputy general manager for numismatics at the South African Mint Company, said she had seen a big increase in demand for gold.

"I think we will see this same trend in this and the next quarter," she said. "Gold surely has been resilient in these times."

Michael O'Kane, head bullion trader at the New Zealand Mint, said many overseas buyers had come into the New Zealand market. "We're seen as a safe-haven market," he said.

He said buying had been strong since the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers in September, as investors moved money from banks into hard assets like gold.

The mint was averaging "a month's transactions in a day," he said, adding he saw demand continuing to rise.

Most Chinese Economists Favor Gold Over US Treasuries for Their National Reserves

Barbarously inconvenient to the global dollar hegemon.

Time for another announcement of an IMF gold sale? Sounds as though China would like to know when they will be able to take delivery.

Zimbabwe Ben will simply have to pick up the slack.

In all seriousness, if China starts pressing this issue the US will have no choice but engage in the long overdue revaluation of its national gold reserves significantly higher. This would be one method of reducing the national debt to China and buying back some of the Treasury bonds.

Unfortunately in this case 'higher' would be a factor of x5 at least, or as high as an order of magnitude, x10.

Perhaps the Chinese would settle for an option on West Texas, if Mexico is not interested.

And the angel shouted, "Fallen! Powerful Babylon has fallen..." Revelation 18:2


ChinaStakes
Survey: Over Two-Thirds of Chinese Economists Favor Gold Over US Bonds
by CSC staff, Shanghai
March 02,2009

In a survey of major Chinese economists, more than two-thirds are reportedly bearish on the prospect of China increasing its holdings of US government bonds, and believe instead the nation should putting more of its hard-earned into gold.

According to a China Business News survey of 70 Chinese economists (including one foreign economist), the exact figure is 71.4% anti-bonds and pro-gold.

The use of China's huge foreign exchange reserve is a topic of concern and controversy. The remaining 28.6% of those polled believe China should continue to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. 38.6% think that China should not continue to buy, but also should not to sell US bonds. 32.8% believe that China should unload the bonds, 22.8% of whom think we should have a slight sell-off, while 10% think China should drop them like a bad habit.

All this is against a backdrop of China surpassing Japan to become America's largest US bond holder and of the ever-widening global financial kerfuffle.

The survey also brings to light the question of whether China’s gold reserves should be increased. Recent gold futures prices broke through US$1000/ounce, making gold the most outstanding asset in the financial turmoil. One economist thinks China’s current gold reserve of 600 tons is an unnecessary load and that the opportunity should be grasped to sell off a bunch of it at a good price.

21.4% of economists said that the gold reserve level was fine and leave it alone.

But 75.7% of the economists asked believe that China should increase its holdings of gold, with 48.6% opting for a slight increase while 27.1% think China should pile in.

At US$1000 an ounce?!

Net Asset Values and Premiums of Select Gold and Silver Funds and ETFs

Gold Reaches New All Time High in India

The rush to physical gold amid devaluing currencies is a world phenomenon largely unnoticed in the US because of the flight to safety in the US dollar and a strong institutional bias among Wall Street which prefers to deal in paper for its higher turnover and richer fees.

If this trend changes, if the dollar loses some of its own safe haven appeal, if the gold shorts are forced to capitulate despite the propping from the Central Banks, then this could be a surprisingly strong market move.

Gold is already proving to be a desirable alternative to the Swiss franc which as we have noted before has become a disgraceful shadow of its former self because of Swiss government mismanagement. Watch the Swiss howl when their interest rates must move higher to accommodate the debasement of their currency to salvage a corrupt banking sector.

The Economic Times (India)
Gold at all-time high of Rs 15,800 per 10 gm in Delhi
19 Feb 2009, 1350 hrs IST

NEW DELHI: Surging gold prices set yet another record of Rs 15,800 per 10 gram in the national capital on Thursday in line with the surging global bullion markets on speculation that the global recession will deepen further.

The precious metal recorded fresh gains of Rs 50 to Rs 15,800, a level never seen before, after poor economic data of Russia and Japan raised concerns of a growing malaise of global recession.

Jewellers and market analysts said the demand of the yellow metal picked up after the global equity and forex markets dropped in the recent past.

They said shaky investors find no other option but to park their funds in the precious metals, while physical buying for the current marriage season declined substantially

We do not see any customers these days as surging gold prices cooled down the demand for jewellery in this marriage season," said a Delhi-based Jeweller Gaurav Anand.

A similar firming trend in other regional bullion markets in the country also dampened trading sentiment to a great extent. In Kolkata, the gold opened at a record high of Rs 15,925 per 10 gram.

Meanwhile, gold in futures trading touched a new high by rising 0.88 per cent to Rs 15,712 per 10 gram at the MCX counter.

Gold Rises to Record Prices Against European and Asian Currencies

The current global crisis is a direct result of the long Greenspan chairmanship of the Fed, neo-liberal deregulation of the financial markets, and rampant fraud and corruption amongst the financiers controlling the world's reserve currency, from the bankers to the ratings agencies to the regulatory bodies.

"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort." Antony C. Sutton

UK Telegraph
Gold hits record against euro on fear of Zimbabwean-style response to bank crisis
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
8:49PM GMT 17 Feb 2009

This gold rally is driven by safe-haven fears and has a very different feel from the bull market we've had for the last eight years," said John Reade, chief metals strategist at UBS. "Investors are seeing articles in the press saying governments should deliberately stoke inflation, and they are reacting to it."

Gold jumped to multiple records on Tuesday, triggered by fears that East Europe's banking crisis could set off debt defaults and lead to contagion within the eurozone. It touched €762 an ounce against the euro, £675 against sterling, and 47,783 against India's rupee.

Jewellery demand – usually the mainstay of the industry – has almost entirely dried up and the price is now being driven by investors. They range from the billionaires stashing boxes of krugerrands under the floors of their Swiss chalets (as an emergency fund for total disorder) to the small savers buying the exchange traded funds (ETFs). SPDR Gold Trust has added 200 metric tonnes in the last six weeks. ETF Securities added 62,000 ounces last week alone.

In dollar terms, gold is at a seven-month high of $964. This is below last spring's peak of $1,030 but the circumstances today are radically different. The dollar itself has become a safe haven as the crisis goes from bad to worse – if only because it is the currency of a unified and powerful nation with institutions that have been tested over time. It is not yet clear how well the eurozone's 16-strong bloc of disparate states will respond to extreme stress. The euro dived two cents to $1.26 against the dollar, threatening to break below a 24-year upward trend line.

Crucially, gold has decoupled from oil and base metals, finding once again its ancient role as a store of wealth in dangerous times.

"People can see that the only solution to the credit crisis is to devalue all fiat currencies," said Peter Hambro, chairman of the Anglo-Russian mining group Peter Hambro Gold. "The job of central bankers is to allow this to happen in an orderly fashion through inflation. I'm afraid it is the only way to avoid disaster, but naturally investors are turning to gold as a form of wealth insurance."

One analyst said the spectacle of central banks slashing rates to zero across the world and buying government debt as if there was no tomorrow feels like the "beginning of the 'Zimbabwe-isation' of the global economy".

Gold bugs have been emboldened by news that Russia has accumulated 90 tonnes over the last 15 months.

"We are buying gold," said Alexei Ulyukayev, deputy head of Russia's central bank. The bank is under orders from the Kremlin to raise the gold share of foreign reserves to 10pc.

The trend by central banks and global wealth funds to shift reserves into euro bonds may have peaked as it becomes clear that the European region is tipping into a slump that is as deep – if not deeper – than the US downturn. Germany contracted at an 8.4pc annual rate in the fourth quarter. The severity of the crash in Britain, Ireland, Spain, the Baltics, Hungary, Ukraine and Russia has shifted the epicentre of this crisis across the Atlantic. The latest shock news is the 20pc fall in Russia's industrial production in January. The country is losing half a million jobs a month.

Markets have been rattled this week by warnings from rating agency Moody's that Austrian, Swedish and Italian banks may face downgrades over their heavy exposure to the ex-Soviet bloc. The region has borrowed $1.7 trillion (£1.2 trillion) – mostly from European banks – and must roll over $400bn this year....

Long Term Dow Chart and Forecasts

For some time we have had a downside target of 7200 on the Dow based on classic charting measuring objectives.

Here is an update of that chart showing we have broken down out of the symmetrical triangle and appear to be moving lower towards that objective.

Here is a very long term chart of the Dow showing the obvious importance of the 7200 level to the bulls. If that breaks the next support level on this chart will be around 6400. It will confirm the tentative neckline at 10,300 on the chart above.

When charts done from various perspectives and techniques agree, technically it can be a powerful confirmation of their validity.



These lower forecast numbers could be thrown off IF the government manages to start reflating the money supply and stock prices. They will at some point, its just a matter of timing, but it will obviously impact the nominal stock index numbers.

The Dow gold ratio will likely reach at least 2 and possibly less. This implies that at the bottom gold will be $2700. Gold will likely hit significant resistance around 1250-1300 in the short term and correct and consolidate its gains from there depending on how quickly we arrive at that target and the steepness of the slope of the price increase leading up to it.

If the reflation kicks in then all bets for a gold top are off. Silver is a little harder to forecast because of its industrial component. But we think $100/oz. is a slam dunk in the longer term, but anything can happen.



There is no forecast for the DX US Dollar Index because it will become increasingly irrelevant and detached from reality.

This is a longer term view, probably out to 2011, so the number of things that could impact it are many and significant.

The Gold Bull In Retrospect

From The Contrary Investor:

"Last, the short-term strokes. You already knew this anyway. We’re just repeating it for drill. The technical areas of support and resistance are self-apparent. Gold is Mother Nature. Gold is Father Time. Parents who we believe will never let us down."

The Incontrovertible Truth About Debt, Deleveraging, Devaluation and Recovery

It is incomprehensible that any informed economist does not understand this difference between deflationary deleveraging and a cyclical recession.

And if they do, how could they possibly justify giving trillions of capital to the banks to support them in their excess so that they might freely make loans again, when it was their reckless lending and speculation that brought us to this point?

And the economists also know full well that the real cure lies in devaluing the currency and restoring the balance sheet of the individual households through an increase in the median wage and the debt relief of bankruptcy.

There must be reform, a change in the system that spawned these repeated bubbles and epoch of voodoo economics and malinvestment.

"Basically what happens is that after a period of time, economies go through a long-term debt cycle -- a dynamic that is self-reinforcing, in which people finance their spending by borrowing and debts rise relative to incomes and, more accurately, debt-service payments rise relative to incomes. At cycle peaks, assets are bought on leverage at high-enough prices that the cash flows they produce aren't adequate to service the debt. The incomes aren't adequate to service the debt. Then begins the reversal process, and that becomes self-reinforcing, too. In the simplest sense, the country reaches the point when it needs a debt restructuring. General Motors is a metaphor for the United States.

The process of bankruptcy or restructuring is necessary to its viability. One way or another, General Motors has to be restructured so that it is a self-sustaining, economically viable entity that people want to lend to again.

This has happened in Latin America regularly. Emerging countries default, and then restructure. It is an essential process to get them economically healthy.

We will go through a giant debt-restructuring, because we either have to bring debt-service payments down so they are low relative to incomes -- the cash flows that are being produced to service them -- or we are going to have to raise incomes by printing a lot of money.

It isn't complicated. It is the same as all bankruptcies, but when it happens pervasively to a country, and the country has a lot of foreign debt denominated in its own currency, it is preferable to print money and devalue....

There will be substantial nationalization of banks. It is going on now and it will continue. But the same question will be asked even after nationalization: What will happen to the pile of bad stuff?... (More precisely, who will take the loss? If it is not those that took the profits, then you have injustice, transfer of wealth - Jesse)

The Federal Reserve is going to have to print money. The deficits will be greater than the savings. So you will see the Federal Reserve buy long-term Treasury bonds, as it did in the Great Depression. We are in a position where that will eventually create a problem for currencies and drive assets to gold....

Everything is timing. You print a lot of money, and then you have currency devaluation. The currency devaluation happens before bonds fall. Not much in the way of inflation is produced, because what you are doing actually is negating deflation. So, the first wave of currency depreciation will be very much like England in 1992, with its currency realignment, or the United States during the Great Depression, when they printed money and devalued the dollar a lot. Gold went up a whole lot and the bond market had a hiccup, and then long-term rates continued to decline because people still needed safety and liquidity. While the dollar is bad, it doesn't mean necessarily that the bond market is bad...

From the U.S. point of view, we want a devaluation. A devaluation gets your pricing in line. When there is a deflationary environment, you want your currency to go down. When you have a lot of foreign debt denominated in your currency, you want to create relief by having your currency go down. All major currency devaluations have triggered stock-market rallies throughout the world; one of the best ways to trigger a stock-market rally is to devalue your currency...

Buying equities and taking on those risks in late 2009, or more likely 2010, will be a great move because equities will be much cheaper than now. It is going to be a buying opportunity of the century."

Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long - Ray Dalio - Barrons