Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - And a Haughty Spirit Before a Fall - Lies and Imperial Madness Rising

“To put it baldly, there are two ways to become wealthy: to create wealth or to take wealth away from others. The former adds to society. The latter typically subtracts from it, for in the process of taking it away, wealth gets destroyed. A monopolist who overcharges for his product takes money from those whom he is overcharging and at the same time destroys value. To get his monopoly price, he has to restrict production.”

Joseph E. Stiglitz, The Price of Inequality


“I had noticed that both in the very poor and very rich extremes of society the mad were often allowed to mingle freely.”

Charles Bukowski, Ham on Rye


"Evil will sometimes seems good to a man whose mind a god is leading to destruction."

Sophocles, Antigone

After the bell 'Alphabet' posted some negative results, such as operating margin, which caused the stock to decline, despite much better than expected earnings.

Like patriotism and honor, earnings are often a very flexible concept in our current financial discourse and halls of political power.

Stocks rebounded this morning, and the metals were under pressure.

This despite the cratering in the newly opened Asian markets after their long lunar new year holiday.

In the interests of preventing panic, lies and associated looting appears to be the order of the day for our guardians of freedom.

But it would be poor form for Trumpolini to have to give his State of the Union as an impeached president with a cratering stock market.

This is going to end badly, make no mistake about that.

As the force of the economy continues to decline, the fraud of its representations and of most public speech will increase, shamelessly.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metal Charts - The Darkness Rising - Twilight of Those Who Would Be Gods

"At dæmon, homini quum struit aliquid malum,
Pervertit illi primitus mentem suam."

But when the devil intends any evil against man, he first viciously corrupts their mind.

Euripides


"Nimirum insanus paucis videatur, eo quod
Maxima pars hominum morbo jactatur eodem."

He appears mad indeed but only to a few, because many are infected with the same disease.

Horace


"Though this be madness, yet there is a method in it."

Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act 2, Scene 2.

The retail sales number came in rather badly this morning.

There is no real recovery. Just a papering over of the rot endemic to oligarchy.

Gold and silver are struggling at overhead resistance.

Gold is much more interesting to watch here because of its nature as a safe haven.

And of course its central role in the changes in the monetary regime which have been called currency wars.

Stocks have reached the 38.2% fibonacci retracement level. They may keep on reaching for 50%.

It is reported that JP Morgan is holding $2.3 trillion in stock derivatives, or roughly 2/3rds of the entire market.

Let's see how this charade plays out.  My general forecast is for pain.

When intelligent, verbally acute narcissists start succumbing to continuing pressure they typically become paranoid, and then violent.   The mechanism for this is reasonably straightforward.

Their pathology is expressed in grandiose self-images and imagined and great exaggerated accomplishments.   When they fail to achieve their lofty goals, they start blaming others. Their narcissism turns malignant.

After all, in their minds they are fabulously talented and have never failed or even made a serious mistake.   So if there is failure, it cannot possibly be due to anything that they have done, but rather the failure of those who work for them.  And so there is a great deal of staff turnover.

And if the failures continue, there must certainly be some group that is sabotaging their efforts, in an effort to make them look bad.  Eventually their rage and words translate into acting out, and violence, most often against critics, potential critics and scapegoats.

There might be an epidemic of this sort of thing in the Beltway.

And then the darkness comes.

Have a pleasant evening.

Charlie Sykes: How the Right Lost It's Mind

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

Charles Mackay

As Thomas Frank is to the Democratic Party, Charlie Sykes is to the Republicans.

I have been no fan of Charlie, but he seems to have come to some very pointed observations worth hearing.

The GOP did not lose their minds—  they sold their souls for power and money.

But the real tragedy is that so did the Democratic establishment.

And then there is the 800 pound gorilla in the room that no one dares discuss—  the corrupting power of big money in politics, and in darn near everything else downstream, until thought itself dies by suicide, either from expedient convenience, or embarrassment.

Those among us who have for whatever reason remained relatively aloof from this madness, who follow a different way, wonder if they have changed, or if things have changed just that much around them.

But however it has occurred, increasingly they find themselves to be in this world but not of it, as if visitors, almost at times like strangers, in a stranger and stranger land.

Update on the CrashTrak Equity Profile - A Banquet of Consequences Part II

"One of the most disturbing facts that came out in the [Adolf] Eichmann trial was that a psychiatrist examined him and pronounced him perfectly sane. I do not doubt it at all, and that is precisely why I find it disturbing.

If all the Nazis had been psychotics, as some of their leaders probably were, their appalling cruelty would have been in some sense easier to understand. It is much worse to consider this calm, 'well-balanced,' unperturbed official conscientiously going about his desk work, his administrative job which happened to be the supervision of mass murder.  He was thoughtful, orderly, unimaginative.  He had a profound respect for system...

The sanity of Eichmann is disturbing. We equate sanity with a sense of justice, with humaneness, with prudence, with the capacity to love and understand other people. We rely on the sane people of the world to preserve it from barbarism, madness, destruction. And now it begins to dawn on us that it is precisely the sane ones who are the most dangerous...

The whole concept of sanity in a society where spiritual values have lost their meaning is itself meaningless."

Thomas Merton, Raids on the Unspeakable

When you have allowed sociopaths to erect a system which rewards expediency, cleverness, and winning without regard and respect for human values, fairness, or even common mercy and the dignity of others; a society which views compassion and a sense of justice as a weakness to the point of a dangerous deviancy; a culture in which harshness and crudeness and the abuse of power in pursuit of even more wealth, or of the weak as an enjoyable diversion for the superior, are enshrined with a sign of growing strength the only virtue— with such role models and rewards, what else would you expect the highly educated but spiritually weak-willed and morally ambivalent professionals among you to do?

They will implement and execute to plan, under the cover of playing within the rules of a rigged game, with an efficient and myopically determined focus as they do with all that they undertake. They will march themselves into hell with a deluded sense of pride and high accomplishment.

And where do you think this madness will end?

If the bulls cannot stop the selling, put in a bottom, and turn this around we might be in for something notable.

Hopefully the bulls will be able to get their act together to at least stop the selling as they square up their positions into the holiday.

I have to say that I am not 'feeling the fear' yet and the safehavens are notably quiet.

And it would not take a lot to turn the market higher. A word or two from Trump, or one of his proxies, or the Fed's Jay Powell would likely do the trick.

The risk in that is, of course, that if they give it a go and it does not stick, then after an initial bounce the market may take another leg down with a vengeance.   And once the panic sets in, and the real fear selling is underway, it may be too late for jaw-boning to work, even if one if wielding the jawbone of a truly formidable donkey.

I have started to populate the spreadsheets I made in 2000, and last used in 2007, which track the movement of this market and compare it with significant declines from the past.

I have been underestimating the volatility in the NDX using eyeball measures on the chart. One really needs to plug the numbers in.

This is a light trading week. If the bulls cannot turn it on Wednesday or Friday then their hearts may not be in it.

The market is not dominated by 'value investing' but by momentum traders and algos. In that sense it is vulnerable to an outsized move, both up and down.

If there is a 'crash' as I noted some time ago there is little doubt it will be blamed on Trump's trade policies, and to some extent Brexit. This would be a coup for the globalists and freetraders.

They will never acknowledge that the Banks and their Fed willfully allowed an asset bubble to grow, for the third time, in order to continue the transfer of wealth to the top under the guise of investment and asset allocation.

When I dropped my son off at the airport I told him the stock market may crash while he is there, but not to be concerned because I have made provisions.

You may wish to do so as well, even though I still think a crash is a low probability event.

See you tonight.

Thomas Frank: One Market Under God-- Extreme Capitalism

"There is a lack of critical assessment of the past. But you have to understand that the current ruling elite is actually the old ruling elite. So they are incapable of a self-critical approach to the past."

Ryszard Kapuscinski

But they maintain a firm grasp on information and power, for their own sake, and sidetrack and stifle any meaningful reform.

In October 2000 Thomas Frank published a prescient critical social analysis titled, One Market Under God: Extreme Capitalism, Market Populism, and the End of Economic Democracy.

In the video below from 2015, Thomas Frank looks back over the past 15 years to when he wrote this insightful book, and ends with this observation.

"I want to end with the idea that the market is capable of resolving all of our social conflict, fairly and justly.  That is the great idea of the 1990's.  And we all know now what a crock that is.  I think what we need in order to restore some kind of sense of fairness is not the final triumph of markets over the body and soul of humanity, but something that confronts markets,  and that refuses to think of itself as a brand."

The book was not received well at the time in the waning days of the Clinton revolution and the birth of the era of the neo-cons in foreign policy and neo-liberals in economics.

This religion of the markets had yet to suffer the serial failures and decimation of the real economy which it would see over the next sixteen years.

This is an ideology, a mindset, and as Frank calls it a religion, of taking market capitalism to such an extreme that it dispenses with the notion of restraints by human or policy consideration.   It comes to consider the market as a god, with its orthodoxy crafted in think tanks, its temples in the exchanges and the banks, and its oracles on their media and the academy.

This extreme form of market capitalism, also called neo-liberalism in economics and neo-conservatism in foreign policy,  has worked its way into the mindset of the ruling elites of many of the developed nations,  and has taken a place in the public consciousness through steady repetition.  I has become the modern orthodoxy of the fortunate few, who have been initiated into its rites, and served and been blessed by their god.

It is the taking of an idea, of a way of looking at things, that may be substantially practical when used as a tool to help to achieve certain outcomes, and placing it in such an extreme and inappropriate place as an end in itself, as the very definition and arbiter of what is good and what is not, that it becomes a kind of anti-human force that is itself considered beyond all good and evil, like a natural law.

It is born of and brings with it an extreme tendency that kills thought, and stifles the ability to make distinctions between things. If not unfettered capitalism then what, communism? The adherents become blind by their devotion to their gods.

This is not something new.  It is a madness that has appeared again and again throughout history in the form of Mammon, the golden idol of the markets.  It is a way of looking at people and the world that is as old as Babylon, and as evil as sin.

Glenn Greenwald Interview with Matt Lauer

"An old historian says about the Roman armies that marched through a country, burning and destroying every living thing, They make a solitude, and they call it peace. And so men do with their consciences. They stifle them, sear them, forcibly silence them, somehow or other; and then, when there is a dead stillness in the heart, broken by no voice of either approbation or blame, but doleful, like the unnatural quiet of a deserted city, then they say, It is peace; and then the man's uncontrolled passions and unbridled desires dwell solitary within the fortress of his own spirit."

Alexander Maclaren

A country that stifles dissent and disclosure, strangling knowledge under a blanket of falsehoods and secrecy, eventually kills its own conscience and reason, thereby making soulless monsters of itself and its people.   They can become capable of almost any act, moving first from excess and then to outrage, mindlessly offending against both God and nature. 

Without a pang of regret or twinge of conscience, they feel only the heat of their own passions, their lusts and fears, which are driven by the necessity of the emptiness that fuels their insatiable hunger to consume the lives of others.   And this is how the madness begins.

Nero: And They Who Would Be As Gods

"Do not suppose, I pray, that I am offended because you killed your mother, your wife, and your brother; that you burned Rome and send to the darkness all the honest men in your lands.

No, heir of Chaos. Death is the inheritance of men; from you other deeds could not have been expected. But to destroy one's ear for whole years with your poetry, to see your big belly on slim legs whirled about in a Pyrrhic dance; to hear your music, your dramatic orations, your doggerel verses, wretched poet of the suburbs, — is a thing surpassing my power, and it has roused in me the wish to die.

The capitol stuffs its ears when it hears you; the world reviles you. I can blush for you no longer, and I have no wish to do so. The howls of Cerberus, the dog of the underworld, though resembling your music, will be less offensive to me, for I have never been the friend of Cerberus, and I need not be ashamed of his howling.

Farewell, but make no music; commit murder, but write no verses; poison people, but do not dance; be an incendiary, but do not play on a harp. This is the wish and the last friendly advice sent to you by me —

Petronius, Arbiter Elegantiae.”

Henryk Sienkiewicz, Quo Vadis

"I am freeing man from the restraints of an intelligence that has taken charge, from the dirty and degrading self-mortification of a false vision called conscience and morality, and from the demands of a freedom and independence which only a very few can bear...

The law of selection justifies this incessant struggle, by allowing the survival of the fittest. Christianity is a rebellion against natural law, a protest against nature. Taken to its logical extreme, Christianity would mean the systematic cultivation of human failure.”

A. Hitler


"And advanced forms of biological warfare that can target specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool. This is merely a glimpse of the possibilities inherent in the process of transformation, not a precise prediction. Whatever the shape and direction of this revolution in military affairs, the implications for continued American military preeminence will be profound.

As argued above, there are many reasons to believe that U.S. forces already possess nascent revolutionary capabilities, particularly in the realms of intelligence command and control, and long range precision strikes.

Indeed, these capabilities are sufficient to allow the armed services to begin an interim, short-to-medium-term process of transformation right away, creating new force designs and operational concepts – designs and concepts different than those contemplated by the current defense program – to maximize the capabilities that already exist. But these must be viewed as merely a way-station toward a more thoroughgoing transformation."

The Project For a New American Century, Rebuilding America's Defenses


"Heroes. Victims. Gods and human beings.
All throwing shapes, every one of them
Convinced he's in the right, all of them glad
To repeat themselves and their every last mistake,
No matter what."

Seamus Heaney, The Cure At Troy

To Understand the News, Follow the Money. To Follow the Money, Follow the Economic Hitmen

"Plunderers of the world, when nothing remains on the lands to which they have laid waste by wanton thievery, they search out across the seas. The wealth of another region excites their greed; and if it is weak, their lust for power. Nothing from the rising to the setting of the sun is enough for them.

Among all others only they are compelled to attack the poor as well as the rich. Robbery, rape, and slaughter they falsely call empire; and where they create a desolate wasteland, they call it peace."

Tacitus, Calgacus' Speech from Agricola

Remembering this may help one to understand some of the things that happen that otherwise may seem to make no sense.   In the pursuit of profit, their hypocrisy and disregard for justice and human life knows no bounds.

I will let you in on a little secret.  Not always, but the worst of them have a 'tell.'  You have to look at the long record of a person's action and mode of acting to assess this.  Are they plain and straightforward, or highly political and evasive in their motives.  Do they often say one thing, and yet do another.  If so, then this is their 'tell.'

The most cynical player will accuse and denounce their adversaries of the exact things that they have in mind, their precise motives, but first, and aggressively so with high indignation.  But their own actions will appear to be without principled cohesion, that is, principles but selectively applied.  Look for the inconsistencies, and if they are there, you know the type of hypocrite with whom you are dealing.

I think they do this because it defeats the ability of their opponent to accuse them of the very things that they themselves are doing.   I have seen this in company politics to geo-political squabbles, over and over.  Bald faced misdirection is almost standard fare these days of spin and propaganda in domestic politics. 

Telling the truth is considered to be naive, embarrassingly clumsy, an automatic disqualification from power. It is almost as bad as bending your knee to the power of God rather than the will to power, when we would all be gods.  Or caring for the poor and the disadvantaged, those disgusting, useless creatures.  Contemptible weakness!  Such are the times.

There is nothing quite so tempting as a poorly managed country with exploitable resources and assets like food, energy, and people.  And if it is well located for other geopolitical purposes, then so much the better.   Winning.

“The enormous gap between what US leaders do in the world and what Americans think their leaders are doing is one of the great propaganda accomplishments of the dominant political mythology.”

Michael Parenti

The Roots of the Next Crisis, and the Dark Hallway Beyond

“Those who fail to exhibit positive attitudes, no matter the external reality, are seen as maladjusted and in need of assistance. Their attitudes need correction...

Suddenly, abused and battered wives or children, the unemployed, the depressed and mentally ill, the illiterate, the lonely, those grieving for lost loved ones, those crushed by poverty, the terminally ill, those fighting with addictions, those suffering from trauma, those trapped in menial and poorly paid jobs, those whose homes are in foreclosure or who are filing for bankruptcy because they cannot pay their medical bills, are to blame for their negativity.

The ideology justifies the cruelty of unfettered capitalism, shifting the blame from the power elite to those they oppress."

Chris Hedges

Here is a recent conversation I had with a friend about the current state of the US recovery.  As an accountant with a wide range of exposures, I enjoy hearing his perspective since I no longer have that sort of current insight into the corporate culture in America.  I have years of background running large businesses in corporations, and some forays into large scale M&A work, so I have seen quite a bit of it. The methods rarely change, merely the guises and degrees.

Here are excerpts from his side of the conversation with only one parenthetical comment of my own.

"I don’t think we’re seeing profits in a traditional sense. Instead, it appears to me that we’re watching a long, drawn out LBO’ing of America. It appears that companies are liquidating capital and returning it as opposed to earnings spreads on revenue.

It seems like we’re seeing the final blow-off phase that started with the stock option becoming the primary form of compensation for corporate talent. By drawing out the LBO, they re-stock their options each year with a guaranteed return thanks to the Fed and their own Treasury Departments.

The problem is that you can’t have systematic corporate buybacks with employment/economic growth as they create diametrically opposite outcomes. The more work I do, the more I conclude that the US economy has not expanded since 2006.

I was looking at mutual fund data the other day and it showed that people moved their fixed income money into domestic equity - $185 billion in liquidated bond funds to buy $175 billion in equity funds. This happened after the Fed announced tapering was on the table. Just like the gold market, I suspect that “someone” forced the liquidation of bond funds and herded the money into equity funds to keep the rally going.  (I think it is perfectly reasonable to flee bond funds at any time that interest rates are turning higher.  Bond funds often take it on the chin in such a deleveraging of a long term interest rate trend.   However, I think the whole taper thing was hyped and used by the wiseguys, as are most things these days by our financial masters of the universe. - Jesse)

Coincidentally, corporations used half a trillion in cash flow on buybacks. It’s a liquidity game but with limitations. What’s the next asset that can be liquidated or levered? They’re still working on gold but sometime soon, the price of gold will be set in the East, where the gold resides. Agricultural commodities are being liquidated but that ensures a drop in planting next year. Oil is too valuable on the geopolitical front to liquidate.

There are certainly winners in this economy but far more losers. At some point, the weight of the losers acts against the winners, many of whom are levered up with confidence. Corporations can liquidate equity capital but we all know how the LBO’d companies operated in the 1990’s. In many ways, they’ve gotten corporations to behave like consumers did in the 2000’s, only this time they’re trained to buy back their own stock. Every cycle has natural limits.

We know that corporate cash flow is no longer growing and we know that it’s more expensive to sell debt today than a year ago. We also know that the Fed sees the stock market as their proof of success. So how does this shakeout? If corporations are a lemon, how much juice can you squeeze out of the lemon?"

Although I do not wish to be an alarmist, I have to say that this trend of attempting to sustain the unsustainable has gone on longer than I had previously thought possible.

I am fairly sure that the next crisis will bring these things to a head and some sort of resolution. But therein also lies great danger. Philosophies that have grown time can have deep roots, and when faced with what to them is an intolerable change, can react somewhat excessively. They may even welcome the opportunity to act excessively and decisively, at least in their own minds, as the path to winning.

When a ruling subculture that has become accustomed to crushing and liquidating things for its own power and pleasure, whether it is natural resources, the environment, crops, animals, land, or social organizations, eventually runs out of things, it can become frustrated and angry in its seeming impotence to continue on, to keep expanding.

Indirectly and somewhat benignly at first, but with a growing efficiency and determination over time, it will begin with the weak and the defenseless, attacking and objectifying them, even in the most petty of ways and impositions. It will turn to its critics, and then everyone who is defined by them as 'the other.'

That is when a predatory social and economic philosophy can turn into pure fascism, and start liquidating people.  And finally it liquidates and consumes itself.

But really, no one wakes up one morning and suddenly decides, 'Today I will become a monster, and wantonly kill innocent women and children.'

Otherwise ordinary people get to that point slowly, one convenient rationalization for their 'necessary and expedient' behavior at a time. After all, they are the good people, they are the strong, they are the most successful and the favored.

 They are the entitled, and not these others who would seek to drain them, drag them back down. They are the champions of progress and achievement and civilisation, the hardest working, and the epitome of mankind.  

What could possibly go wrong? 

"He prompts you what to say, and then listens to you, and praises you, and encourages you. He bids you mount aloft. He shows you how to become as gods. Then he laughs and jokes with you, and gets intimate with you; he takes your hand, and gets his fingers between yours, and grasps them, and then you are his."

J. H. Newman, The AntiChrist

If you are one who thinks that the above 'could not possibly happen here,' and I am sure that there are many, you may wish to read the following vignette from modern US history. Alan Nasser, FDR's Response to the Plot to Overthrow Him

Chris Hedges On the Power of the Modern Media and Fox News

“He who dictates and formulates the words and phrases we use, he who is master of the press and radio, is master of the mind. Repeat mechanically your assumptions and suggestions, diminish the opportunity for communicating dissent and opposition. This is the formula for political conditioning of the masses.

The big lie and monotonously repeated nonsense have more emotional appeal in a cold war than logic and reason.

The continual intrusion into our minds of the hammering noises of arguments and propaganda can lead to two kinds of reactions. It may lead to apathy and indifference, the I-dont-care reaction, or to a more intensified desire to study and to understand. Unfortunately, the first reaction is the more popular one...Confusing a targeted audience is one of the necessary ingredients for effective mind control.

The eternal demagogue will arise anew. He will accuse others of conspiracy in order to prove his own importance. He will try to intimidate those who are neither so iron-fisted nor so hotheaded as he, and temporarily he will drag some people into the web of his delusions. Perhaps he will even wear a mantle of martyrdom to arouse the tears of the weak-hearted. With his emotionalism and suspicion, he will shatter the trust of citizens in one another."

Joost Meerloo M.D., The Rape of the Mind

Hedges specifically discusses Fox News, and deservedly so,  because it has set the tone for the modern news programs. There were never more ironic words than their slogan, 'fair and balanced.'  But he could have included a few other corporate copycat channels as well, including the financial channels which have become little more than infomercials for Wall Street and the one percent.

Most 'news shows' in the states have become extended op-ed's where paid professional hucksters and 'strategists' spout slogans and sound bytes at one another, with a fairly cavalier attitude towards an intelligent exposition of the facts. 

Emotions are more powerful than facts in the modern mass media. Frighten the people, anger them, give them an object for their fear and anger, and in their rage you can move them in whatever direction you wish.

And you can look to the repeal of the Fairness Doctrine, the weakening of the FCC, the proliferation of cable channels with hours of programming to fill, and the concentration of the media in the hands of a few corporations, or perhaps more correctly global conglomerates, for the cause of this terrible decline in what is lightly these days called journalism. And in the destruction of a literate news media, thereby lies the deterioration in public and political discourse.

This is not about right versus left.  It is about politicians, financiers, and intellectuals of a predator class who think they can strike a Faustian bargain, and unleash the will to power, and control it for their own ends.

But the madness serves none but itself.

A Financial Coup d'Etat and a Credibility Trap - What Must Be Done

These two statements on the credibility trap and reform are from the bottom of my blog, and a permanent fixture to the layout of the site.

I wanted to take a moment to remind you of them, because they can be so easily overlooked. And they often are.

What I say in quite a few words, Chris Hedges says in a fairly pithy manner in the video below. And I think he is right. And this applies as much to Europe and the UK and the Mideast, including Israel, as it does to the US and the rest of the Americas.  Of course one could name many other countries, such as Russia and China, but unfortunately they cannot fall from freedom, because despite the changes in names and slogans and the self-serving advertising campaigns of nationless corporate predators, they already have little or none.

The progressive movement lacks a spine for the moment, and is badly divided over a number of difficult issues which diffuse them, instilling hatred and fear in their hearts, driving out love, and leaving room only for a destructive pride and selfishness.  And the timid thinkers, the so-called intelligentsia, hide in their studies and in their cellars, and in their work, waiting for someone else to do something.

Eventually progressive people will come together or, as Edmund Burke observed, "...they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle."

To those who say to hell with it, to hell with thinking, to hell with complexity, to hell with others, I say, be careful of the madness which you seek to unleash, because it will come back to consume you and your children, as it has done so many times before, and will do so inevitably again.

This is what I believe is happening now based on a careful reading of history. 

This is not a prediction.  This is a warning for a generation that is being prepared to accept the unthinkable on a much wider scale than they might imagine in their worst nightmares: torture, murder, ethnic cleansing, and repression.  And what is most frightening of all is that they think they are immune to it, because they are so different, so special, so exceptional.  And so they become willfully blind, and in their blindness, may become beasts.

A credibility trap is when the regulatory, political and/or informational functions of a society have been compromised by a corrupting influence and a fraud, so that they cannot address the situation without implicating, at least incidentally, a broad swath of the power structure including themselves.

The status quo has at least tolerated the corruption and the fraud, if not profited directly from it, and most likely continues to do so. The power brokers have become susceptible to various forms of blackmail. And so a failed policy can become almost self-sustaining long after it is seen to have failed, and even become counterproductive, because admitting failure is not an option for those in power.

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustained growth and recovery.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Midsummer Madness - Fed Preparing for US Default

"Why, this is very midsummer madness.”

William Shakespeare, Twelfth Night, 3.4.55


"We are developing processes and procedures by which the Treasury communicates to us what we are going to do," Plosser said, adding that the task was manageable. "How the Fed is going to go about clearing government checks. Which ones are going to be good? Which ones are not going to be good?"

Fed Preparing for US Default - Reuters

Very bullish reversal in the metals intraday, with closes in gold and silver above the psychological numbers of 1600 and 40 respectively.

If they can move higher and stick a close, and hold it through option expiration next week, you can say goodbye to these levels, the dollar, and quite a bit more.

As an aside, the other day I read an essay in a recent issue of Discover Magazine called, The End of Morality. I also found this commentary on it.

In this article, which promotes the triumph of scientific reason, utilitarianism, over what it contends are mere emotions, holdovers from history, it was put forward that it makes rational economic sense to kill one healthy person and harvest their organs, in order to provide them to five other people who can then live a higher quality of life, as an increase of goodness on the whole. The revulsion that one feels at murder is an unthinking instinct which can be overcome by higher thinking, the power of the will.

And it held this out as the higher 'good' in the new scientific morality, freed of the restraints of the mere instinct to preserve innocent life.

"You have these gut reactions and they feel authoritative, like the voice of God or your conscience. But these instincts are not commands from a higher power. They are just emotions hardwired into the brain as we evolved."

The logical extensions of such reasoning should be perfectly obvious to anyone with a sense of history. 

And one does not even have to kill them to put them to the good service of the State, and those predestined for a higher quality of life, the übermenschen.  At least, not in the beginning.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

G7 Industrial Production Crashing

The production of real goods in the developed nations is plummeting. Even the mighty export driven economy of Japan appears to be heading lower as though it had fallen off a cliff.

Countries must begin to encourage consumption in their own economies. To do this, they ought not to be stimulating the old credit/speculation machine called the neo-liberal financial system.

Real economic growth is to be found in a broad employment and consumption, and an increase of the median wage.

This is the deep flaws in much of the third world economies, especially in Asia and Latin America. Economic health can be measured by the size and well being of the middle class in a relatively free society.

The reason is simple. Individuals can only borrow so much before they are unable to service the debt. And the greedy few can only spend so much on consumption using the wealth which the tax and financial system has delivered to them from the many.

Gaming the system so that it overtaxes the income of the many for theincreasing benefit of a few has natural limitations, unless one can enforce a type of involuntary servitude. This model has its roots far back in history, in empires like Rome, Egypt, and Sparta.

As the elite few accumulate real assets using their surplus, they will find that holding on to their wealth as the rest of society deteriorates in a downward spiral of privation can be a bit of a challenge.

Until the financial system is reformed and the economy is brought back into a balance, there will be no recovery, and the fabric of order will remain fragile.

If things continue on as they are, despite all the stimulus and fine rhetoric, the madness will once again be unleashed on the earth, and the people will wonder from whence it came, as they do each time it rises from the same sources and ravages civilization: unbridled greed, malinvestment, and corruption.




Thanks to Diapason Trading for this chart.