31 March 2009

Derivatives: the Heart of Financial Darkness


The heart of our financial crisis is reckless speculation with "too big to fail" funds by a relatively small group of US based money center banks.

There is sufficient circumstantial evidence from their concerted lobbying efforts to undo and resist regulation to show planning and forethought in what is an almost amazingly straightforward case of fiduciary and financial fraud. Many a blind eye was turned to the decline of the nation as it occurred, as the media and politicians and financial regulators were caught up in a seductive web of corruption.

The perpetrators are still in place, relatively unrestrained, and certainly not facing anything that might be called 'justice.'

Before there is any recovery, the banks must be once again restrained and balance restored to the economy and the financial system. The efforts of the Obama Administration are hopelessly ineffective, conflicted, and supportive of continuing losses.


The Prime Suspects



The Killing Field



The Wagers on Failure



The Wages of Speculation



30 March 2009

How the Financial Industry Holds America Captive


You heard this here first.

"The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time."

The Quiet Coup - Simon Johnson - The Atlantic Monthly


24 March 2009

Here Come the Coupon Purchases by the Fed


The Fed made this announcement and the ETF we use to short the Treasury bond, TBT, took a nose dive.

FAQs on Fed Monetization of US Debt





Fed to start buying Treasurys on Wednesday
By Deborah Levine
2:58 p.m. EDT March 24, 2009

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will begin making purchases Of U.S. Treasury securities on Wednesday, starting with debt maturing between 2016 and 2019.

It will continue purchases on Friday and next week, with some days dedicated to purchases of maturities as short as 2-year notes with others for debt maturing in 17 to 30 years, it said in a schedule posted on its website Tuesday.

It did not indicate how much it would buy. The Fed announced last Wednesday it would purchase up to $3000 billion in Treasurys over the next six months. Treasurys rallied, with yields on 10-year notes (UST10Y UST10Y) paring an earlier increase to traded up 1 basis point to 2.66%.


Guest Blog: The Cheapest Call Option of All


No doubt Ben and Timmy have it all planned out, how they will use the trickle down machine to reinflate the financial system, and thereby float out loans again, at interest, to the hoi polloi.

From the Irish gnome in Zurich:

The cheapest call option on the planet is being provided by the world's largest HF//Prime broker: the US govt. Its also the best camouflage for a continuing rescue of Citi, GS et al that the Congress and the public cannot penetrate.

TALF Bait and Switch - Zero Hedge

And if it all goes wrong, Geithner is now looking for power to bail out the hedge funds, not to mention Pimco et al.

This sounds like a pretty cheap option to me.

But what has also gone unrecognised is the fact they will all make up this money on their CDS and S&P calls anyway.

If they pay banks their fictional book value, they will be able to pretend that the financial problems were overstated, just a 'liquidity' issue after all.

The banks can claim they HAVE been doing things right and we'll have a huge rally again. Anyone who participates will no doubt reckon on a reduced Prime Brokerage fee and extra leverage from the grateful seller - -which means asset inflation has another leg up.

Remember, ALL banking 'capital' is notional, so it is easy to conjure up the illusion of wealth creation once more.

23 March 2009

SP Weekly and Monthly Charts Updated at Noon


The question one must ask is whether this is a technical bounce off a short term bottom, or the beginning of somthing more sustained.

Barton Biggs of Traxis Partners is saying today that he expects a thirty to fifty percent rally off this bottom. His reasoning is historic comparison off lows this severe.

If sustained, is this a genuine economic recovery or another monetary reflation and resultant bubble in financial assets.

The charts speak to this, not definitively, but with sufficient weight to be important. Yet another bubble sets us up for a great cascade fall down to 545, with a potential final bottom as low as 380.

The numbers may start to be skewed and distorted on the chart if a more serious monetary inflation in the dollar begins. The commodities and the quality of earnings in the SP 500 will be the 'tell.'

But make no mistake. The Fed and the Obama Administration are firmly committed to monetary inflation and a weaker dollar as another short term cure for the economy.

If the government does not make the fundamental reforms to the financial system and economy to bring back a balance with real wealth creation, it is difficult to see how the dollar and the bond will emerge intact from the next bubble without a further devaluation of 50 percent at least.





21 March 2009

The Net Asset Value of Certain Gold and Silver Trusts and ETFs


GLD and SLV generally trade at a slight discount to spot because of their management fes. They are also used for arbitrage plays.

The premium on GTU is substantial as a result of the recent rally in gold. Personally I would not buy it at that level of premium preferring other investments.



Here Comes Turbo Timmy's Troubled Toxic Asset Clearance Sale


Wall Street Journal
U.S. Sets Plan for Toxic Assets

By Deborah Solomon
March 21, 2009

WASHINGTON -- The federal government will announce as soon as Monday a three-pronged plan to rid the financial system of toxic assets, betting that investors will be attracted to the combination of discount prices and government assistance.

But the framework, designed to expand existing programs and create new ones, relies heavily on participation from private-sector investors. They've been the target of a virulent anti-Wall Street backlash from Washington in the wake of the American International Group Inc. bonus furor. As a result, many investors have expressed concern about doing business with the government in this climate -- potentially casting a cloud over the program's prospects.

The administration plans to contribute between $75 billion and $100 billion in new capital to the effort, although that amount could expand down the road.

The plan, which has been eagerly awaited by jittery investors, includes creating an entity, backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., to purchase and hold loans. In addition, the Treasury Department intends to expand a Federal Reserve facility to include older, so-called "legacy" assets. Currently, the program, known as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, was set up to buy newly issued securities backing all manner of consumer and small-business loans. But some of the most toxic assets are securities created in 2005 and 2006, which the TALF will now be able to absorb.

Finally, the government is moving ahead with plans, sketched out by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last month, to establish public-private investment funds to purchase mortgage-backed and other securities. These funds would be run by private investment managers but be financed with a combination of private money and capital from the government, which would share in any profit or loss....


20 March 2009

US Dollar Weekly Chart with Commitments of Traders



SP Futures Hourly Charts at 1:45 EDT: Vertigo


Recall that today is a quad witch in the options expiration, which typically bring a great deal of market manipulation in the days preceding.

The rally failed at 800 resistance, which would the neckline of an inverse H&S bottom, and the answer to bully's prayers.

Since the economy is not recovering six months ago, we expect that failure to stick and a new leg down to precipitate. This setup is easier to see on the second chart which is The Big Picture.

As always, we will wait for confirmation of this breakdown before taking positions of size. However the trend of our hedges has shifted to the short side at the second failure at 800 on the hourly charts.




The AIG Scandal Is Merely a Symptom of Our National Agony


The AIG bonuses are a calculated distraction.

This is the heart of the problem:

We will have no recovery until the system is reformed and brought back into a sustainable balance. To achieve this end, the banks must be returned to business of banking again, with the reinstatement of Glass-Steagall. The hedge funds must be restrained through fundamental regulatory reform.

A private agency like the Fed is not capable of performing these tasks. The Fed, for all the rhetoric that surrounds it, is a private enterprise owned by the banks. The effectiveness of self-regulation and the rational efficiency of markets are the great myths that have led us to our current crisis.

The Fed as the great regulator for multiple markets is an attractive choice for the government, because when it fails the government may point the finger of blame, and absolve itself of all responsibility for our ruin as they are attempting to do now.

Slate
The Real AIG Scandal
By Eliot Spitzer
March 17, 2009, at 10:41 AM ET

It's not the bonuses. It's that AIG's counterparties are getting paid back in full.

Everybody is rushing to condemn AIG's bonuses, but this simple scandal is obscuring the real disgrace at the insurance giant: Why are AIG's counterparties getting paid back in full, to the tune of tens of billions of taxpayer dollars?

For the answer to this question, we need to go back to the very first decision to bail out AIG, made, we are told, by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, then-New York Fed official Timothy Geithner, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last fall.

Post-Lehman's collapse, they feared a systemic failure could be triggered by AIG's inability to pay the counterparties to all the sophisticated instruments AIG had sold. And who were AIG's trading partners? No shock here: Goldman, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, UBS, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, and on it goes.

So now we know for sure what we already surmised: The AIG bailout has been a way to hide an enormous second round of cash to the same group that had received TARP money already.

It all appears, once again, to be the same insiders protecting themselves against sharing the pain and risk of their own bad adventure...

19 March 2009

The Decline of the Dollar as the World's Reserve Currency


The arrogant belief that you are the 'only game in town,' and indispensable, provokes reckless behaviour that takes advantage of such a belief with abusive excess.

The time for the dollar to fall from its reserve currency status is coming precisely because of the years of reckless deficit spending beginning with the Reagan Administration.

This is also a model for the Wall Street moneycenter banks, who have abused their position in the financial system egregiously since the repeal of Glass-Steagall.

The likely result of this long cycle of reckless speculation and arrogance was forecast here in 2005.


Forecast 2005: The Humpty Dumpty Economy
Jesse's Café Américain

The current trend in the United States economy is not sustainable. This is a
realization that will penetrate the national consciousness slowly and unevenly.
Most economists agree on how this cycle will end (even if it is only privately), but
the great debate is in the details of how, and most importantly, when.

If one does not accept that the situation is unsustainable, and believes that things
can continue on endlessly just as they are, with the United States consuming the
bulk of the world’s savings and production because of who we are, then perhaps
this is symptomatic of the national epidemic we now suffer which the ancient
Greeks called hubris.

"Where else will they put their surplus if not our debt? To whom will they sell their
goods if not to us? Who will teach them how to live, and govern them?" History
shows that even if such trends last far beyond most expectations, eventually a
day of reckoning arrives, in some frequently repeated patterns of systemic
failure....

Things rarely reach a turning point when we expect it. A true sea change is
slow to permeate the mentality of most people, because our experience is that
what happened yesterday will happen again tomorrow, and a long cyclical turn occurs
gradually and incrementally. We forget what happened even a few years ago.
Predictions of a continuance of recent trends are the common currency of most pundits...

However, and this is a common sense notion that has been nearly forgotten
by our generation, we have the ability to act in such a way so as to make the
improbable more likely to occur, to tempt fate by our actions. For example, there
is a certain probability of sustaining an automobile accident in the normal course of
our daily activities. High risk behaviors, such as speeding excessively or
drinking while driving, increase the chance of an accident. If one engages in high risk
activity, and nothing unusual happens, we become emboldened and think that
since we were able to drink moderately and drive last month, so we can drink
and drive this month and thereafter. Perhaps next month we drink a little more for
an indulgence, and again nothing happens. This cycle continues until something
changes our behavior, or simply ends when we literally hit the wall.

It would be our contention that the US is like such a driver, and we have been
economically tempting fate with increasingly risky behaviors. We are persuaded
that there is almost nothing we cannot do, almost nothing that can happen, that is
beyond our control. It is the propensity for people to increase and
repeat what they have been doing over time, to tempt fate through repeated and
increasingly risky behavior, and to forget the possibility of a sequence of
unfortunate events if you will, that gives rise to memorable events in history...

Predicting the failure of a complex system is not easy. One can examine it as a
whole, and determine that it will fail, and often calculate what must change in
order to allow the system to function more reliably. But it is often beyond our power to
calculate exactly how it will fail, and consequently when it will fail. This does not
invalidate the observation that the system will ultimately fail. It merely
underscores the unpredictability of timing a failure with the degrees of freedom
inherent in a calculation with a large number of exogenous variables. It is not
easy to predict exactly when a chronic DWI will demolish their automobile, but it
remains relatively predictable to say that they will do so as long as they maintain
their current mode of behavior....

There are four major types of tipping points:

o Demand: a break in the level of consumption in the US caused by the
unwillingness or ability of households to incur further debt to support
consumption beyond real wage growth

o Supply: a major disruption in the supply of an essential commodity like
energy, food, or raw materials, or even the realization that a major
commodity is in shorter supply than expected, such as silver or oil.

o Monetary: an inability of foreign central banks to continue to
monetize the US trade deficit and budget deficit through the recycling of
their trade surplus into US debt securities.

o Systemic failure: the failure of a major counter party that threatens the
US financial system, particularly in the hugely leveraged derivatives
market.

Two of the seals, Demand and Systemic Failure, have been broken, and the horsemen unleashed. Next comes Monetary, and then Supply, which is a Pale Horse.

There is still time to end this spiral of decline.


Reuters
U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar
By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent
Wed Mar 18, 2009 11:16am EDT

LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) - A U.N. panel will next week recommend that the world ditch the dollar as its reserve currency in favor of a shared basket of currencies, a member of the panel said on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the dollar.

Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the panel of experts, told a Reuters Funds Summit in Luxembourg that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.

Persaud, chairman of consultants Intelligence Capital and a former currency chief at JPMorgan, said the recommendation would be one of a number delivered to the United Nations on March 25 by the U.N. Commission of Experts on International Financial Reform.

"It is a good moment to move to a shared reserve currency," he said.

Central banks hold their reserves in a variety of currencies and gold, but the dollar has dominated as the most convincing store of value -- though its rate has wavered in recent years as the United States ran up huge twin budget and external deficits.

Some analysts said news of the U.N. panel's recommendation extended dollar losses because it fed into concerns about the future of the greenback as the main global reserve currency, raising the chances of central bank sales of dollar holdings.

"Speculation that major central banks would begin rebalancing their FX reserves has risen since the intensification of the dollar's slide between 2002 and mid-2008," CMC Markets said in a note.

Russia is also planning to propose the creation of a new reserve currency, to be issued by international financial institutions, at the April G20 meeting, according to the text of its proposals published on Monday.

It has significantly reduced the dollar's share in its own reserves in recent years....


Reuters
China backs talks on dollar as reserve -Russian source
By Gleb Bryanski
Thu Mar 19, 2009 11:24am

MOSCOW, March 19 (Reuters) - China and other emerging nations back Russia's call for a discussion on how to replace the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, a senior Russian government source said on Thursday. Russia has proposed the creation of a new reserve currency, to be issued by international financial institutions, among other measures in the text of its proposals to the April G20 summit published last Monday.

Calls for a rethink of the dollar's status as world's sole benchmark currency come amid concerns about its long-term value as the U.S. Federal Reserve moved to pump more than a trillion dollars of new cash into the ailing economy late Wednesday.

Russia met representatives of China, India and Brazil ahead of the G20 finance ministers meeting last week, as the big emerging powers seek to up their influence on decisionmaking globally. Their first ever joint communique did not mention a new currency but the source said the issue was discussed.

"They (China) did not formally put forward their position for the G20 summit but unofficially they had distributed their paper regarding the same ideas (the need for the new currency)," the source told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The source said the Chinese paper envisaged the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) being first assigned a role of a clearing currency on some transactions and then gradually becoming the main global reserve currency. "They said that the role of reserve currency should be given to SDR," the source said.

A U.N. panel of experts is also looking at using expanded SDRs, originally created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969, but now used mainly as an accounting unit within similar organisations as a new reserve currency instead of the dollar.

Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the U.N. panel, told a Reuters Funds Summit on Wednesday that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.

The SDR and the old Ecu are essentially combinations of currencies, weighted to a constituent's economic clout, which can be valued against other currencies and against those inside the basket....

Citigroup: Keeping Up With the Goldmans


What is ironic is that these stories of Citi extravagance are probably being leaked by other equally extravagant Wall Street players with big Credit Defaut Swap and short positions on Citi, hoping it breaks back down so they can get their own $10 million dollar offices.

The financial system is broken. The banks must be restrained. Speculation is no substitute for production, that creates real wealth. Speculation merely transfers wealth to the few from the many, until the blood tide rises.


Citi plans $10 million office refurb for executives
By Sam Mamudi
March 19, 2009

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup Inc. plans to spend about $10 million on new offices for senior executives, according to a Bloomberg report Thursday.

The changes at the bank's headquarters in New York City will include a new office for Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.

The project is made up of 17 private offices, two conference rooms and open areas, reported Bloomberg.

Citi told Bloomberg that the refurbishment, which it began planning in June, will save the bank money in the long run.

18 March 2009

SP Futures Hourly Chart at the Close




The Fed's Decision: PRINT


To net today's FOMC statement for you, the Fed has made an aggressive commitment to monetary expansion through its balance sheet to support the financial system.

What was particularly repugnant was the co-ordinated actions in the market ahead of this announcement. This included a major bear raid on the precious metals, and the panic-covering of the financial shares before the official announcement. The cure of the crisis ought not to be an occasion for looting, fraud, deception, and personal enrichment by insiders who in many cases caused the problems which are facing today.

The US government is engaging in the same artificial tactics that lead to the tech bubble and the housing bubble. They are artificial because they are not accompanied by systemic change and meaningful reform. We are shooting the patient with morphine so they can go back to work without treating the disease.

The next phase of this financial credit crisis may be take down the US Bond and the dollar. That is what is known as a financial heart attack.


Release Date: March 18, 2009
FOMC Statement


For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract.

Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment. U.S. exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have also fallen into recession.

Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth.

In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these
securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year
, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion.

Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.

The Federal Reserve has launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses and anticipates that the range of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial and economic developments

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.


The Hypocrisy of Barack Obama, Tim Geithner, Henry Paulson, and Christopher Dodd


This issue of the AIG bonuses raises concerns about conflicts of interest since the Financial Products Division of AIG was a large contributor to both President Obama and Senator Dodd.

It also gives fuel to the speculation that the retnention bonuses being paid to the AIG executives, some of whom have already left, are 'hush money' over the details of the payments of enormous sums of bailout money to politically connected businesses such as Goldman Sachs, who are also substantial contributors to both parties.

True or not, the failure of the Treasury Department to execute in this matter is alarming, and the lack of transparency by the Obama administration and the Democratic leadership is discouraging, if not appalling.

McCauley's World

Senator Christopher Dodd’s office recently announced that, “Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd, chairman of the Senate banking committee, demanded a full briefing from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury on why clauses weren’t attached to the four various AIG bailouts to halt bonuses.”

Yet the Senator well knows that while the Senate was constructing the $787 billion stimulus last month, Dodd added an executive-compensation restriction to that very bill. The provision, now called “the Dodd Amendment” by the Obama Administration, provides an “exception for contractually obligated bonuses agreed on before Feb. 11, 2009” — which exempts the very AIG bonuses Dodd and others are now seeking to tax.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/finance/dodd-cracks-aig—time/

Obama & Dodd Were Friend’s Of AIG Before AIG Was Their Enemy

Obama may be grandstanding about AIG’s bonuses now, but it’s worth noting that Obama himself is the second biggest benefactor of AIG political contributions. Second only to Senator Chris Dodd, who is quietly trying to tip-toe away from legislation he inserted into Obama’s “stimulus” spending spree that protected AIG’s bonuses.
http://www.kxmb.com/News/Nation/346030.asp
Key Congressman tried to alert Treasury about the AIG bonus issue "six or seven times" in the past weeks.

Kanjorski: Treasury and Administration Knew of AIG Bonuses for Weeks

Edward Liddy is the government appointed Chairman of AIG during its bailout phase.

Edward M. Liddy is currently the chief executive officer of American International Group (AIG), where he succeeded Robert B. Willumstad in September, 2008. Upon taking the position of CEO at American International Group, Mr. Liddy had to resign his board position at Goldman Sachs.
This September meeting was the key decision point on bailing out AIG. As we have reported earlier, the ONLY non-official present was Lloyd Blankfein, the Chairman of Goldman Sachs, a major counterparty at risk with the AIG Financial Products Division.

And lastly, we ought not to overlook The Real AIG Scandal - Slate

Brokers Recalling Loaned Shares in Citi


Since this morning Bloomberg reports that major brokerages have been calling in the loaned shares that have been used for legitimate short sales in Citigroup.

This in part explains the rally in Citi today, as the shortsellers cover their positions ahead of a 2:30 PM deadline today by which they must return the borrowed shares.

It does seem rather calculated, particularly its conjunction with the Federal Reserve announcement.

We have not seen this in the general news, just on the Bloomberg TV analyst reporting.

There is the implication that this is a calculated market operation being conducting among big traders and the major brokerage houses who hold the shares for borrowing from customer accounts. Marketwatch seems to imply that this is being precipitated by 'the authorities.'

Nice timing to help bolster the financials after the FOMC announcement. This has the Larry Summers/Robert Rubin touch.

It would be a good thing indeed if the Obama Adminstration did something meaningful to curb naked short selling and enforce the existing regulations. But if they are doing so for only their favorite companies, then this is not market regulation, it is crony capitalism and insider trading.

Seeking Alpha

Citigroup Inc. – Shares are being squeezed once again today and the company has a valuation some 23% higher today with shares stretching above $3.00.

Intrigue continues in the June 5.0 strike options where arbitrageurs are using conversion plays that typically land a credit to take advantage of the squeeze. The volume in that line has more than 150,000 contracts trading both sides today with puts bought and calls sold when investors can position long of the stock.

Earlier in the week rumors did the rounds that the authorities might be on the hunt for hard-to-borrow stock certificates in select financial names.

This in itself has created a surge at AIG and Citigroup as desperate short-sellers try to cover their positions. The conversion trade could be established earlier in the week for a credit of 20 cents, but given the near-panic buying in the stock has shifted to a 1.10 cost to traders.

17 March 2009

The Obama Team's Economic Performance Is Pathetic


Wouldn't it be nice if one day the Obama Administration came up with a change, an innovative reform for the financial system that made us sit back and say, "Wow, that's great! That's exactly what we have been looking for."

So far it has been one misstep, one fumble, one tired old Henny Youngman routine after another. The Clinton Administration retread meets the road, and falls apart.

Things went badly beginning with the appointment of Larry Summers as key economic advisor.

Larry was one of the three man miracle team of Greenspan, Rubin and Summers that turned the Asian monetary crisis into the tech bubble after a smoke and mirrors economic recovery while the industrial base of the US continued to slide into the Pacific.

We have seen nothing that speaks of the promise that we felt when America said "enough" and voted for a change in the fall of 2008.

And after the Summers disappointment we received the the Rubin protege, Tim Geithner, with the thinnest of financial backgrounds, who while at the NY Fed helped to help transform the housing bubble collapse into the bailout bust.

His position at Treasury is such an obvious, glaring mismatch that he cannot even staff key jobs in his own department. Who would want to work under such an obvious, embarrassing failure?

This is not a poor performance. This is an abject, incompetent inability to address the most critical issue facing this country.

This is Obama's Iraq: a morass of crippling failure brought on by horrible advice from key advisors with their own agendas.

President Obama throws rhetoric at the problem from a distance, like he is still campaigning against something. He leaves the impression of a more articulate Bush, inspiring no lasting confidence, giving no impression that he is in charge, on top of the situation, in control with a well thought out plan. He can make you feel good while he is speaking, then reality sets in and you realize that there is nothing there. Where are the management skills to back up the rhetoric?

Don't get us wrong. This is still early in the game. But the Democrats are losing the early rounds, as the situation grows more dire.

Well, Mr. Obama, you are President now, and even though you have only a short time in the office, so far you have shown us nothing. Your shepherding of a stimulus bill through the Congress was a nightmare, made worse by Nancy Pelosi who is a mediocre House Speaker at best, but appears a dynamo in comparison to Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Tired old solutions, inbred beltway thinking, old boy insider dealing.

Embarrassing. Unworthy. Amateurish. Pathetic.

You are failing, and we see it, and the anger, and sense of quiet panic, is building.

Time to get serious, to get it together. Time to step up to the job and take command. Time to show us your best stuff, find the levers, roll up your sleeves, and step down from the pulpit.

Nasdaq 100 Futures Hourly Chart Into the Close


The market went out on its highs suggesting that we will get a strong opening tomorrow for the FOMC announcement at 2:15 PM EDT.

As a reminder, this Friday is the 'triple witching' option expiration. The markets are frequently volatile as the big players squeeze the overleveraged option speculators.

Adobe reports tonight after the bell.

To say that the better-than-expected housing start numbers ignited hopes for the economy and triggered today's rally is ludicrous rationalization.

This was a short squeeze for option expiry week, pure and simple.

Alcoa and Nucor announcements show how dire the economic situation has become.




Congressman Proposes 60% Income Tax Surcharge on AIG Bonuses


Interesting development indeed.

Michigan Democratic Rep. Gary Peters introduced a bill in the House of Representatives to impose a 60 percent surtax on bonuses over $10,000 at any company in which the U.S. government has a 79 percent or greater equity stake.

This is in addition to the usual income tax rate.

Its directionally not bad, but the level of ownership by the Federal government should be 51%, not 79%. And stiff penalties for management bonuses at any institution receiving TARP funds or FED support above a certain level are needed.

The reason that the Obama Administration is in this box over the contracted bonuses is that Geithner and Summers refused to take AIG into bankruptcy reorganization.

Why?

Perhaps it has something to do with the enormous exposure that Goldman Sachs had to AIG. Lloyd Blankfein, the chairman of Goldman Sachs, was the only non-government or Fed official who was at the meeting at which this bailout was decided.

Yes, the AIG bonuses are an enormous, shocking scandal.

But it is only the tip of the iceberg. Recall that we predicted early last year that the patsies and scapegoats would be thrown off the back of the getaway truck to try and satisfy the angry mob once the magnitude of the frauds became apparent even to the average person.

Well we are there, and they are throwing patsies out the window with greater noise and flourish, because, in short, the angry mob is getting louder, and they are afraid.


Reuters
Congress eyes bonus surtax amid AIG outrage
By Kevin Drawbaugh
Tue Mar 17, 2009 1:17pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Some members of the U.S. Congress on Tuesday proposed slapping a surtax on bonuses paid to executives at American International Group Inc, amid outrage over the large payouts.

Michigan Democratic Rep. Gary Peters introduced a bill in the House of Representatives to impose a 60 percent surtax on bonuses over $10,000 at any company in which the U.S. government has a 79 percent or greater equity stake.

"Currently, AIG is the only company that meets this threshold," Peters said in a statement. "The legislation I'm proposing will get taxpayers their money back.

President Barack Obama on Monday expressed "outrage" about $165 million of bonuses to employees of AIG, once the world's largest insurer, now being bailed out by the government.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said Peters' approach was "worth pursuing as an idea."

California Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman, a House Financial Services Committee member with Peters, said he favors "a tax law to impose a substantial surtax on excessive compensation paid to executives at bailed-out firms, especially AIG."

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has said he will subpoena AIG for more information about the bonuses, including the names of the recipients.

Peters said it was "beyond outrageous that the very people who brought AIG to its knees and helped create the current financial crisis are scheduled to receive hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses while tax dollars keep their company afloat."

Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley and Connecticut Rep. Joe Courtney, both Democrats, released a letter signed by 90 members of Congress to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urging that planned bonuses to AIG executives be stopped.

Braley also said in a statement that he introduced legislation "to increase the tax rate on any bonuses awarded by businesses receiving government TARP funds, including AIG."

New York Democratic Senator Charles Schumer warned AIG employees to return the bonuses they are receiving or face being slapped with a major tax on those payments.

"They should voluntarily return them (the bonuses). If they don't, we plan to tax virtually all of it," Schumer said.


Teabagging the Congress


You are probably already aware of this 'tea party' invitation making the rounds of email and the internet.

What is remarkable is that I received this today from one of the most conservative people that I can imagine, who STILL won't admit that the George W. Bush administration was a disaster for our economy.

It appears that the full spectrum, from left to right, of the public is angry, very angry, and the Democrats led by Obama are setting themselves up as the lightning rod to receive it, primarily through their bungling of the financial crisis.

Send a teabag if you wish. Personally I would make some tea with it first. Why waste? I am not sharing my Typhoo with anyone.

It is good, though, to do something if you are angry. Symbolic protests are a good first step. But what will get the attention of these power players will be something with a monetary impact, such as a major boycott, or a move away from the dollar and into non-financial assets.

The paid help may be fearful, but the ringleaders are drunk with power. They have been at this for some years now.

It has been some time since I have seen ordinary people so generally angry and disgusted by the US national government. Certainly not since the Nixon Administration. Something will have to give if the current course does not change.

Bailout Anger Creates Peril for Both Parties - MarketWatch


Tea Party - Please mark your Calendars

A tea party, what a wonderful idea, I just wish it had been mine. I have a feeling that USPS is going to have a lot of tea to contend with, after all it only costs 42 cents to send a message, hopefully heard round the world!!!

So please mark your Calendars

There's a storm abrewin'. What happens when good, responsible people keep quiet?

Washington has forgotten they work for us. We don't work for them. Throwing good money after bad is NOT the answer.

I am sick of the midnight, closed door sessions to come up with a plan. I am sick of Congress raking CEO's over the coals while they, themselves, have defaulted on their taxes.

I am sick of the bailed out companies having lavish vacations and retreats on my dollar. I am sick of being told it is MY responsibility to rescue people that, knowingly, bought more house than they could afford. I am sick of being made to feel it is my patriotic duty to pay MORE taxes.

I, like all of you, am a responsible citizen. I pay my taxes. I live on a budget and I don't ask someone else to carry the burden for poor decisions I may make. I have emailed my congressmen and senators asking them to NOT vote for the stimulus package as it was written without reading it first. No one listened. They voted for it, pork and all.

O..K. folks, here it is. You may think you are just one voice and what you think won't make a difference. Well, yes it will and YES, WE CAN!!

If you are disgusted and angry with the way Washington is handling our taxes. If you are fearful of the fallout from the reckless spending of BILLIONS to bailout and "stimulate" without accountability and responsibility then we need to become ONE, LOUD VOICE THAT CAN BE HEARD FROM EVERY CITY, TOWN, SUBURB AND HOME IN AMERICA.

There is a growing protest to demand that Congress, the President and his cabinet LISTEN to us, the American Citizens. What is being done in Washington is NOT the way to handle the economic free fall.

So, here's the plan. On April 1, 2009, all Americans are asked to send a TEABAG to Washington , D.C. You do not have to enclose a note or any other information unless you so desire. Just a TEABAG.

Many cities are organizing protests. If you simply search, "New American Tea Party", several sites will come up. If you aren't the 'protester' type, simply make your one voice heard with a TEABAG. Your one voice will become a roar when joined with millions of others that feel the same way. Yes, something needs to be done but the lack of confidence as shown by the steady decline in the stock market speaks volumes.

This was not my idea. I visited the sites of the 'New American Tea Party' and an online survey showed over 90% of thousands said they would send the teabag on April 1. Why, April 1?? We want them to reach Washington by April 15. Will you do it? I will. Send it to; 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington , D.C. 20500 ..

Visit the website below for more information about the 'New American Tea Party'. I would encourage everyone to go ahead and get the envelope ready to mail, then just drop it in the mail April 1.



Can't guarantee what the postage will be by then, it is going up as we speak, but have your envelope ready. What will this cost you? A little time and a 40 something cent stamp.

What could you receive in benefits? Maybe, just maybe, our elected officials will start to listen to the people. Take out the Pork. Tell us how the money is being spent. We want TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY. Remember, the money will be spent over the next 4-5 years. It is not too late.

Of course, if you agree with the way things are being done now, just delete this e-mail !!!!!


SP Futures Hourly Chart at Noon


It is important to remember that this is a 'triple witching' week with options expiring on Friday. In markets such as this in particular it is a week of shenanigans as the bigger house players squeeze the option punters who are essentially speculating with too much leverage. March is a big expiration.

We also have the Fed in a two day FOMC meeting with their announcement tomorrow at 2:15 EDT.

The uptrend has held so far. The first chart shows the hourly action up close, and the second chart shows the same scenario but within the context of the bigger picture.

This feels like a technical rally. And surely there is no recovery in the real economy six months out, which is what is required to justify a sustained market uptrend and a new bull market.

Although Ben Bernanke has made noises about a possible recovery at the end of this year, we would file that with his other economic pronouncements about the credit crisis being confined to subprime and so forth. He is constantly talking his book, which demands a rosy recovery. He won't get it.

There will be no recovery in our nation until there is significant reform enacted to bring our economy back into balance. The financial system, gone off the track with gambling, is draining our energy away from real productive efforts, acting as a hidden by substantial tax on the quality of our growth.




A view of the above chart within the greater context of this rally.


Senator Grassley: Throw AIG to the Wolves (and Ignore Us)


"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time,
but you can not fool all of the people all of the time."

Abraham Lincoln

But you can bloody well try.

Senator Grassley is a ranking member of the Senate Finance Committe. As such, he presided over a decade of erosion of safeguards and balance in our financial system.

He is also a member of a political party and a government that had the lead in ruining our country, undermining the Constitution, and allowing financial racketeers like AIG to flourish.

The fellows at AIG are indeed amoral pigs, and they make no pretentions to be otherwise, whereas Chuck Grassley and his ilk are venal hypocrites who are attempting to deflect attention from their own significant role in the current financial crisis, and a disastrous foreign policy conducted under false pretenses for the enrichment of private interests and corporations.

Those who take his pious pronouncements seriously are born to be shorn, over and over, again and again.

"I don't know whether the [$165 million in bonuses] is an issue as much as just the chutzpah of the people running AIG," Grassley said. "That they could thumb their nose at the taxpayers, it's more that.

"The attitude of these corporate executives and bank executives, and most of them are in New York, that somehow they're not responsible for their company going into the tank," he said.

"I suggest, you know, obviously maybe they ought to be removed, but I would suggest that the first thing that would make me feel a little bit better towards them [is] if they would follow the Japanese example and come before the American people and take that deep bow and say I'm sorry and then either do one of two things: resign or go commit suicide."


16 March 2009

FASB to Make Dramatically Favorable Changes in Mark to Market Rules


It looks likea return to mark-to-assumptions is in the cards. The prospective rule change is targeted at large banking institutions with hold-to-maturity MBS portfolios.

This rule change will be generally known as marked-to-official-policy accounting, wherein our desired objectives are achieved by definitional manipulation and corporate decree. This is consistent with our national currency.

If the holder of a financial asset cannot obtain an active price, they can assume the cash flows will be maintained to maturity and value the asset based on that.

This is not decided yet, but we would imagine FASB is under intense pressure from the federal government and the banking lobby.


FASB to Propose Improvements to Mark-to-Market and OTTI
The American Banker
March 16, 2009

The Financial Accounting Standards Board agreed today to propose alternatives for improving mark-to-market accounting in illiquid markets and for “other-than-temporary-impairment” (OTTI). ABA has been requesting improvements to these mark-to-market issues for the past year and for improvements to OTTI for many years.

Mark-to-Market.

The proposal for estimating market values will take into consideration whether there is an active market (such as the number of recent transactions, whether price quotes are based on current information, whether price quotes vary substantially, etc.). If there is not an active market, then the quoted price is a distressed transaction unless certain other conditions exist. For distressed transaction prices, “Level 3” techniques (such as present values of future cash flows) are used instead of the distressed prices and should reflect an orderly transaction between market participants, including a reasonable profit margin for uncertainty in a non-distressed situation.

Other-Than-Temporary-Impairment.

FASB will also propose that the full market loss continue to be reported through earnings (and capital) only if the entity intends to sell or will be required to sell the security prior to its recovery. For all other OTTI, the amount of market loss will be split between the credit portion of the loss, which will be reported in earnings, and the remainder of the loss, which will be reported in “other comprehensive income.”

Effective Date and Comment Period.

The proposed effective date is for periods ending after March 15, 2009. However, FASB is concerned that some may not be able to prepare the information in time for March 31, 2009, reporting, and will request comments on whether it should be effective for periods ending after June 15, 2009, with early adoption (for March 31, 2009) permitted. Comments are due April 1, and FASB hopes to make its final decision on April 2.


Alcoa Slashes Dividend from .17 to .03 Per Share


Alcoa is also planning new offerings of common and preferred stock to raise capital.

Too bad they are not a bank.

SP Futures Hourly Chart at 3:45 PM


The rally is looking a bit toppy but its not dead yet.

Watch the changing slopes of the support and resistance channels. If they keep rolling over and the SP breaks that key support at 740 it could be a real sleigh ride lower back down to 700.

The VIX was elevated all day, even at the high, so there is your 'tell' in addition to the shift in the trend channel to a softer slope.

Chances are they dump the market overnight if that is what is going to happen. But until there is a break through 740 this is just a pullback. We'll have to consult with other short term indicators to see if this is a top, or just a bear trap pullback.


Overseas Private Investors Sell US Financial Assets


Non-US private investors fled dollar asset in January, while their central banks continued to buy.

"Monthly net TIC flows were negative $148.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $158.1 billion, and net foreign official flows were $9.2 billion."
Foreign central banks continued to purchase Treasuries while shedding agency debt. This is largely in support of currency pegs for industrial policy and homage from client states like Saudi Arabia.


Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data for January

Washington —The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for January 2009. The next release, which will report on data for February 2009, is scheduled for April 15, 2009.

Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were negative $43.0 billion.

Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were negative $18.8 billion. Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were negative $10.2 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were negative $8.5 billion.

U.S. residents purchased a net $24.2 billion of long-term foreign securities.
Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been negative $60.9 billion.

Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities increased $30.9 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills decreased $15.4 billion.

Banks’ own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents decreased $118.9 billion.

Monthly net TIC flows were negative $148.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $158.1 billion, and net foreign official flows were $9.2 billion.

Complete data is available on the Treasury website at www.treas.gov/tic.


AIG: A Scandal of Epic Proportion



"Goldman Sachs had said in the past that its exposure to A.I.G.’s financial trouble was 'immaterial'."

It appears that it was immaterial because Goldman Sachs, through their ex-CEO Hank Paulso, had set things up so they could not lose on their counterparty risk.

This story from last September documents Goldman Sachs involvement, at the highest levels, in the AIG bailout with then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.

AIG: A Blind Eye to Risk - NYT Sept 28, 2008

It seems fairly obviously that a relatively small department within AIG, the Financial Products division, was operating under the regulatory radar and was used as a patsy by a number of the Wall Street banks, who had no worries about losses because of their power to obtain the US government as a backstop to losses.

This is a scandal of epic proportion. 'Outrage' barely manages to express the appropriate reaction.

Obama is an educated, intelligent President, and can hardly retreat behind the clueless buffoon defense in vogue with so many CEO's and public officials. He has a directly responsible for this outcome now along with the Bush Administration and the Republicans.

Geithner and Summers should resign over their handling of AIG.

The Fed has no business regulating anything more complex than a checking account.

The difficulty with which we are faced is that despite their mugging for the camera and emotional words the Democrats and Republicans are owned by Wall Street and Big Business because of the existing system of lobbying and campaign funding.

Getting behind a third party for president is symbolic but ineffective. Giving a significant number of congressional seats to a third party will send a chilling and practical message to both the President and the Congress that enough is enough.

And in the meantime--

Contact Your Elected Officials


NY Times
A.I.G. Lists the Banks to Which It Paid Rescue Funds

By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
March 16, 2009

Amid rising pressure from Congress and taxpayers, the American International Group on Sunday released the names of dozens of financial institutions that benefited from the Federal Reserve’s decision last fall to save the giant insurer from collapse with a huge rescue loan.

Financial companies that received multibillion-dollar payments owed by A.I.G. include

Goldman Sachs ($12.9 billion),
Merrill Lynch ($6.8 billion),
Bank of America ($5.2 billion),
Citigroup ($2.3 billion) and
Wachovia ($1.5 billion).


Big foreign banks also received large sums from the rescue, including



Société Générale of France and
Deutsche Bank of Germany, which each received nearly $12 billion;


Barclays of Britain ($8.5 billion); and
UBS of Switzerland ($5 billion).

A.I.G. also named the 20 largest states, starting with California, that stood to lose billions last fall because A.I.G. was holding money they had raised with bond sales.

In total, A.I.G. named nearly 80 companies and municipalities that benefited most from the Fed rescue, though many more that received smaller payments were left out.

The list, long sought by lawmakers, was released a day after the disclosure that A.I.G. was paying out hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses to executives at the A.I.G. division where the company’s crisis originated. That drew anger from Democratic and Republican lawmakers alike on Sunday and left the Obama administration scrambling to distance itself from A.I.G.

“There are a lot of terrible things that have happened in the last 18 months, but what’s happened at A.I.G. is the most outrageous,” Lawrence H. Summers, an economic adviser to President Obama who was Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, said Sunday on “This Week” on ABC. He said the administration had determined that it could not stop the bonuses.


(Among the outrages was the appointment of that sly old fox Larry Summers and his sidekick Tim Geithner by President Obama, and their continued tenure in any so-called reform government. - Jesse)

But some members of Congress expressed outrage over the bonuses. Representative Elijah E. Cummings, a Democrat of Maryland who had demanded more information about the bonuses last December, accused the company’s chief executive, Edward M. Liddy, of rewarding reckless business practices. (Well duh, that was and is the modus operandi of Wall Street Congressman - Jesse)

A.I.G. has been trying to play the American people for fools by giving nearly $1 billion in bonuses by the name of retention payments,” Mr. Cummings said on Sunday. “These payments are nothing but a reward for obvious failure, and it is an egregious offense to have the American taxpayers foot the bill.” (Hey I have a good idea, lets elect some officials to make the laws and prevent these outrages through regulation. Oh yeah we did. Its you Congress! Its you Obama - Jesse)

An A.I.G. spokeswoman said Sunday that the company would not identify the recipients of these bonuses, citing privacy obligations.

Ever since the insurer’s rescue began, with the Fed’s $85 billion emergency loan last fall, there have been demands for a full public accounting of how the money was used. The taxpayer assistance has now grown to $170 billion, and the government owns nearly 80 percent of the company.

But the insurance giant has refused until now to disclose the names of its trading partners, or the amounts they received, citing business confidentiality.

A.I.G. finally relented after consulting with the companies that received the government support. The company’s chief executive, Edward M. Liddy, said in a statement on Sunday: “Our decision to disclose these transactions was made following conversations with the counterparties and the recognition of the extraordinary nature of these transactions.” (How about the threat of subpoena from the Attorney General? - Jesse)

Still, the disclosure is not likely to calm the ire aimed at the company and its trading partners.

The Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, appearing on “60 Minutes” on CBS on Sunday night, said: “Of all the events and all of the things we’ve done in the last 18 months, the single one that makes me the angriest, that gives me the most angst, is the intervention with A.I.G.” (Considering you are presiding over the looting of the middle class, Ben my man, that speaks volumes - Jesse)

He went on: “Here was a company that made all kinds of unconscionable bets. Then, when those bets went wrong, they had a — we had a situation where the failure of that company would have brought down the financial system.” (AIG was a setup with the very banks, Goldman Sachs and crew, that you are bending our economy over backwards to save, Ben - Jesse)

In deciding to rescue A.I.G., the government worried that if it did not bail out the company, its collapse could lead to a cascading chain reaction of losses, jeopardizing the stability of the worldwide financial system.

The list released by A.I.G. on Sunday, detailing payments made between September and December of last year, could bolster that justification by illustrating the breadth of losses that might have occurred had A.I.G. been allowed to fail.


Some of the companies, like Goldman Sachs and Société Générale, had exposure mainly through A.I.G.’s derivatives program. Others, though, like Barclays and Citigroup, stood to lose mainly because they were customers of A.I.G.’s securities-lending program, which does not involve derivatives. (There ought to have been the managed unwinding and default on those derivatives - Jesse)

But taxpayers may have a hard time accepting that so many marquee financial companies — including some American banks that received separate government help and others based overseas — benefiting from government money.

The outrage that has been aimed at A.I.G. could complicate the Obama administration’s ability to persuade Congress to authorize future bailouts. (I would hope so. Obama has lost all credibility compliments of Geithner, Summers and Bernanke - Jesse)

Patience with the company’s silence began to run out this month after it disclosed the largest loss in United States history and had to get a new round of government support. Members of Congress demanded in two hearings to know who was benefiting from the bailout and threatened to vote against future bailouts for anybody if they did not get the information.

A.I.G.’s trading partners were not innocent victims here,” said Senator Christopher J. Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who presided over one recent hearing. “They were sophisticated investors who took enormous, irresponsible risks.” (Do something about it then you windbag - Jesse)

The anger peaked over the weekend when correspondence surfaced showing that A.I.G. was on the brink of paying rich bonuses to executives who had dealt in the derivative contracts at the center of A.I.G.’s troubles.

Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, implicitly questioned the Treasury Department’s judgment about the whether the bonuses were binding. (I would question if Barney Frank is competent to hold office since he has also been a key player - Jesse)

“We need to find out whether these bonuses are legally recoverable,” Mr. Frank said in an interview Sunday on Fox News.

Many of the institutions that received the Fed payments were owed money by A.I.G. because they had bought its credit derivatives — in essence, a type of insurance intended to protect buyers should their investments turn sour.

As it turned out, many of their investments did sour, because they were linked to subprime mortgages and other shaky loans. But A.I.G. was suddenly unable to honor its promises last fall, leaving its trading partners exposed to potentially big losses.

When A.I.G. received its first rescue loan of $85 billion from the Fed, in September, it forwarded about $22 billion to the companies holding its shakiest derivatives contracts. Those contracts required large collateral payments if A.I.G.’s credit was downgraded, as it was that month.

Among the beneficiaries of the government rescue were Wall Street firms, like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Merrill Lynch that had argued in the past that derivatives were valuable risk-management tools that skilled investors could use wisely without any intervention from federal regulators. Initiatives to regulate financial derivatives were beaten back during the administrations of Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

Goldman Sachs had said in the past that its exposure to A.I.G.’s financial trouble was “immaterial.” A Goldman Sachs representative was not reachable on Sunday to address whether that characterization still held. When asked about its exposure to A.I.G. in the past, Goldman Sachs has said that it used hedging strategies with other investments to reduce its exposure.

Until last fall’s liquidity squeeze, A.I.G. officials also dismissed those who questioned its derivatives operation, saying losses were out of the question.

Edmund L. Andrews and Jackie Calmes contributed reporting.


13 March 2009

World Buying In Gold Coins Soars


"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort."
Antony C. Sutton
"Gold has worked down from Alexander's time... When something holds good for two thousand years I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory."
Bernard M. Baruch

World mints report soaring demand for gold coins
Fri Mar 13, 2009 8:36am EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Mints around the world say demand for gold coins has risen sharply as interest in the precious metal soars on the back of financial instability and concerns over the inflation outlook.

The Royal Canadian Mint, which produces Maple Leaf bullion coins, said it quadrupled its production capacity late last year as demand for gold and silver bullion products leapt.

Gold was one of the few commodities to rise last year as turmoil in the financial sector sharpened investors' appetite for assets seen as a safe store of value, such as bullion.

Spot gold rallied to an 11-month high of $1,005.40 on February 20 as a slide in equity markets increased interest in the precious metal. Demand for physical gold products such as coins and bars has been particularly strong, traders say.

The United States Mint said sales of its one-ounce American Eagle gold bullion coins rocketed to 710,000 ounces in 2008, from 140,000 ounces a year before.

"The demand for gold and silver has been unprecedented," a spokesman for the Mint told Reuters.

The chairman of the French Mint, Christophe Beaux, said sales roughly doubled last year in value terms and are expected to rise by another 50 percent this year.

The 2009 catalog the mint had produced was almost entirely pre-sold, he said. The French Mint produces 100 euro gold coins, and plans to mint 10-ounce and 1-kilo coins this year.

In South Africa -- the world's second-largest gold producer -- Natanya van Niekerk, deputy general manager for numismatics at the South African Mint Company, said she had seen a big increase in demand for gold.

"I think we will see this same trend in this and the next quarter," she said. "Gold surely has been resilient in these times."

Michael O'Kane, head bullion trader at the New Zealand Mint, said many overseas buyers had come into the New Zealand market. "We're seen as a safe-haven market," he said.

He said buying had been strong since the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers in September, as investors moved money from banks into hard assets like gold.

The mint was averaging "a month's transactions in a day," he said, adding he saw demand continuing to rise.

China Central Bank Sees New Gains for Metals, Gold, and Oil


There is a big "if and but" in this forecast from the China Central Bank.

If the government stimulus regenerates aggregate demand, we will see a rebound in the world economies and prices of industrial commodities, as well as gold which will be a hedge during the subsequent monetary inflation.

But if it does not, we may be turning Japanese, and suffer at least a few lost years.

Reuters
China central bank sees rebound in metals, new gold peak
by Zhou Xin, Langi Chiang and Simon Rabinovitch
Fri Mar 13, 2009 8:19am GMT

BEIJING, March 13 (Reuters) - Copper and aluminium prices could rebound in 2009, while gold might scale a new peak and oil could chalk up big gains in the second half of the year, the People's Bank of China said on Friday.

In its annual international financial markets report, the central bank said it expected global demand to continue to weaken this year but held out the hope that the forceful policy response of governments could lead to a turning point in the world economic crisis.

Berkshire Hathaway's Credit Rating Downgraded by Fitch


"Weep over Saul, Who clothed you luxuriously in scarlet, who put ornaments of gold on your apparel." 2 Samuel 1:24


Berkshire has sustained heavy losses in US equities as the value investing approach which Warren Buffett follows has fallen prey to this most vicious of bear markets.

The company still retains exposure to derivatives contracts that concerns Fitch.

Forbes
Buffett Loses Sterling Credit Rating
Peter C. Beller
03.12.09, 08:30 PM EDT

Fitch downgrades billionaire's Berkshire Hathaway to lowly AA because of possible stock and credit market losses.

For decades, one of the brightest banners to fly above Warren Buffett's castle was his company's AAA credit rating, one of a handful in the United States. In his annual letter to shareholders he bragged that Berkshire Hathaway's credit was "pristine." But the financial crisis is laying siege to even the mightiest balance sheets.

In the past year, shares of Berkshire Hathaway the insurance and electricity conglomerate that Buffett controls, have lost 35%. Buffett saw his personal wealth decline by $25 billion. Now Fitch Ratings has snatched away his top-notch rating, downgrading Berkshire to AA.

The full extent of the damage to Berkshire won't be clear until the other two ratings agencies--Standard and Poor's and Moody's (of which Berkshire owns more than 20%)--decide whether to follow with their own downgrades. But conservative lenders often consider the lower of a company's split ratings as the one that counts. A lower rating could hurt Berkshire's business if lenders demand higher interest rates from the company to compensate for increased risk.

Fitch said it downgraded Berkshire because of its large stakes in publicly traded companies, such as Coca-Cola and American Express, as well as huge derivatives contracts that expose it to possible losses in the credit and stock markets. Berkshire's bondholders are also behind insurance policyholders to get paid back if the company runs into trouble. Nothing about that is new; Berkshire has long had major insurance interests. But Fitch said that the financial crisis had led it to reassess the risks to financial firms across the board.

Buffett himself seems to have played a role. Fitch said that the company's success is so dependent on the Oracle of Omaha's ability to choose wise investments that it constitutes a credit risk not "consistent with an AAA rating." The agency also complained that Berkshire management has declined to meet regularly with Fitch analysts in contrast to General Reinsurance, a Berkshire subsidiary. Fitch threatened to drop the AA rating further if stock market declines and earnings shortfalls hurt the firm's capitalization.

Despite the crisis, Buffett has pursued a number of big deals designed to take advantage of lower stock prices and a lack of available capital for struggling firms. Berskhire has plowed billions into Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ), General Electric and Swiss Re and opened a municipal bond insurance company.

While Berkshire's net profit last year fell 62.1% to $5.0 billion, Buffett has said that Berkshire will make money in the long run. (See "Buffett Bloodied But Not Bowed") "Our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time" he wrote in his annual letter to shareholders. "It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America's best days lie ahead."


12 March 2009

SP Futures Hourly Chart at 3 PM


June is now the front month.

Resistance to the countertrend rally is obvious and technically consistent with the major Fibonacci retracement levels.

This is a little too 'pat' for our taste but let's see what happens.


Short Term Indicators Are "Neutral" But With Caution on a Bull Trap


There is a possibility that the counter trend rally may extend into something more significant. The short term indicators have moved to 'neutral.'

We have shifted our hedging bias from slightly short to neutral pending a strong close. But there will be no adding of shorts in size unless the market breaks significant downside support.

Be prepared for this market to turn on a dime. Risk remains high so this trader is hesitant to go long until we see more of this bounce, and potential inverse H&S bottom.

It has to bother one a bit that there are so many 'bottom' calls floating around.

This Cafe is playing a tri-partite hedge involving a mix of longs and shorts in commodities, stocks and government bonds.

Please note that the SP hourly chart has shifted to the June futures which are now the front month.






GE Loses Its 'AAA' Credit Rating as S&P Downgrades


How are the mighty fallen in the midst of the deleveraging!
O Jeff, thou wast downgraded from thine high places.
2 Samuel 1:25

GE, Finance Arm Lose Coveted AAA Long-Term Rating From SP

General Electric Co. (GE) and its finance arm have lost their coveted AAA long-term credit rating from Standard Poor's Ratings Service, which said its view of GE Capital on a stand-alone basis had fallen.

GE had been one of only six non-financial companies with the AAA rating from the agency. The long-term rating of GE and GE Capital was cut one notch each to AA+. Analysts and observers have wondered for months about the company's ability to keep the top rating amid woes at GE Capital, which have driven the company's stock tumbling in recent months.

The stock, down 75% the past year and 48% in 2009 alone, was down 3 cents at $8.46 in recent trading, after rising as much as 4% in the opening minutes of Thursday's session.


11 March 2009

SP Futures Hourly Chart @ 3:45 PM


The SP futures front month switches from the March contract to June tomorrow.

This creates some short term noise in the futures as traders adjust their holdings.

So far the breakout attempt has not been confirmed as successful.

The odds of failure remain high and a sell off into the weekend would be in character for this market.

The action in the Treasuries and dollar today are worth noting. We like to follow TBT.

Let's see what happens.



Mr. Pot Calling Mr. Kettle. Mr. Pot Calling Mr. Kettle.


Steve Schwarzman of the Blackstone group blames the Ratings Agencies for the crisis and the historic 'loss of wealth' throughout the world.

Note to Steve. It was not real wealth.

It was a bubble that was created starting in 1996 when Alan Greenspan changed his policy stance towards the markets after a visit from Mr. Rubin. This was around the time of his famous 'irrational exuberance' speech. We can only wonder what was said at that meeting.

Real wealth has substance. It is created by savings and hard work, and is only destroyed by real world events like natural disasters and wars, and of course theft.

The destruction of the real wealth was in the bubble when the middle class was systematically destroyed. This is just the settling of accounts. What we are seeing now is the paint peeling off the rotten economy which the financiers created for their personal benefit.

The ratings agencies and the regulators and the Fed and the media and the Presidency failed in their duties and responsibilities. They failed because they were corrupted. They were enthralled in a deep capture within a climate of fraud and market manipulation. They succumbed to temptation and became participants. And now they are afraid and ashamed of what they have done.

But they were the pawns, the tools. The primary actors are still in place and are still doing their worst for America. Jamie Dimon is on the financial news networks today speaking to the US Chamber of Commerce, weaving a revisionist view of what happened, blaming everyone but the banks in an amazing display of calculated spin.

Until the Wall Street banks are restrained, until real reform is accomplished, there will be no recovery, and the corruption will continue to taint all who come near it. It is already having its way with the new 'reform' administration.


Blackstone CEO: As much as 45% of global wealth is gone
CFA Institute Financial NewsBrief
03/11/2009

Describing the event as "absolutely unprecedented in our lifetime," Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone Group, said the credit meltdown has wiped out between 40% and 45% of the world's wealth.

He said credit-rating agencies are partly to blame for the crisis. "What's pretty clear is that if you were looking for one culprit out of the many, many, many culprits, you have to point your finger at the rating agencies," Schwarzman said. Reuters (10 Mar.)


10 March 2009

Madoff is Pleading Guilty Without a Deal


Reports are that Bernie Madoff is pleading guilty WITHOUT a deal with the prosecution?

Is there a separate deal with a third party?

He gets to live, albeit in prison, if he doesn't testify about who he worked with and where the money came from and went?

Follow the money (if you can).

According to the US government the total of the Claimed Account balances is now $64.8 Billion with $170 Billion in forfeitures.

Bernie beats the estimate of $50 Billion stolen. Rally time.

Oh and according to Bloomberg, the judge has ruled that the only victims who will be allowed to speak on Friday in court will be those who do NOT think Bernie should be sentenced to any jail time.

Do the thousands of other less forgiving victims get to have their say in a free speech zone in the south Bronx?


SP Futures Hourly Chart at 1 PM EDT - An Appearance of False Vitality Amidst Wasting Disease


Breakout or Fakeout?

The trigger for this rally was an internal memo to the Citigroup employees from Vikram Pandit, designed to bolster morale and most likely the stock price when it was widely leaked to the press. Vik gets a freebie on this one since the memo was 'internal.' No accounting for numbers, right? lol.

Citi CEO Pandit Defends Group Strength

Traders are choosing to interpret this as a positive sign that 'the worst is over' and are squeezing the short interest from an oversold condition. Here is a story on Citi from the WSJ. Does this sound like all is smooth sailing?

U.S. Weighs Further Steps for Citi: Regulators Plan for Contingency - WSJ

Anyone who actually believes the financial crisis is over based on this 'leaked internal memo' is a true believer indeed. In what we are not sure.

Let's see how this rally plays out. Here are the support and resistance levels.

Anything is possible here in the Speculation Nation.

By the way, Turbo Timmy Geithner will be on PBS' Charley Rose talk show this evening. He will say that things are getting dramatically worse in the US economy. But they are committed to fix our dire financial problems no matter what they must do. (hint: print).



Singapore: Three Years of 'Vicious Downturn" - Buys Gold, Loon, Renminbi and Yen - Sells Dollar and Pound


The projection that the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC)has calculated for $3.8 Trillion in financial market writedowns over three years is interesting, considering we are only a third of the way there.

Remarkably, the selection for investment safety that Mr. Yeoh Lam Keong puts forward is very close to items served at the private table of Le Café Américain.

Interesting nonetheless, in particular because of their holding in Citigroup and UBS, and any insight they may have gained therein.

Reuters
Singapore's GIC sees more distress in markets

By Kevin Lim and Saeed Azhar
Tue Mar 10, 2009 2:35am EDT

Fancies gold; to avoid dollar, sterling currencies

SINGAPORE, March 10 (Reuters) - An official from the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC) said he expects more weakness in financial markets in the next 12-18 months, and recommended investors hold gold and other safe assets such as government bonds.

GIC, one of the world's largest sovereign funds with an estimated $200 billion-plus in assets, has invested aggressively in troubled global lenders, picking up multi-billion dollar stakes in Citigroup and UBS in late 2007 and early 2008.

There is "systemic capital inadequacy globally", and the world will probably see "three years of a very vicious downcycle," GIC's director of economics and strategy, Yeoh Lam Keong, told the Investment Management Association of Singapore conference on Tuesday

"This is a very destructive process for assets."

Yeoh, who said he was speaking in his personal capacity, showed a slide prepared by GIC that indicated global writedowns in the financial sector could reach $3.8 trillion by 2013 and that only about 30 percent of the losses had been booked so far.

Yeoh suggested investors hold gold, sovereign bonds and currencies such as the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and Canadian dollar.

He said he liked gold because governments were under pressure to cheapen their currencies to compensate for falling demand, and that some countries such as the United States and Britain would eventually be forced to monetise their debt by printing money.

"I would avoid these currencies like the plague," he said in reference to the dollar and sterling
.


09 March 2009

SP Futures Hourly Chart


Although there are many ways to play a market intraday, as indicated by the short term trendlines in red, the US equity markets are in a downtrend that is rather difficult to dismiss.

When will it end?

We are not sure what the catalyst will be, but at least an intermediate bottom will be reached at some point. In the meanwhile short term relief rallies and short squeeze attempts, such as we saw this morning, will occur on an almost daily basis.


Chris Whalen: Tim Geithner is a Disaster and Will Be Out by June


"Tim Geithner has no financial skills. The only reason he is there [the Treasury Secretary] is to protect Goldman Sachs."

Interview with Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics on TheStreet.com



Warren Buffett: "Economy Has Fallen Off a Cliff"


Warren Buffett is 'talking his book' for a portion of this interview, but he does have some unique insights into the real time economic conditions because of the position of his conglomerate in a number of key businesses that measure the pulse of economic activity.

He sees inflation ahead, and rightly so. The question however is, as always, when?

Adding debt capacity to the system now is useless. Yes, stabilizing the financial system is important. But the demand for debt is so lagging, and the prospects for profit so poor, that one wonders if only the desparate will cry for more credit while they drown.

The solution will be an improvement in the median wage, systemic reforms, and the orderly writedown of debt held by effectively insolvent banks. 'Saving the banking system' as it is constituted now is more than a fool's errand.

It is the path to a test of the fabric of our government not seen since the 1860's.

Bloomberg
Warren Buffett Says Economy Has ‘Fallen Off a Cliff’

By Erik Holm
March 9, 2009 09:29 EDT

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. posted its worst results ever in 2008, said the economy “has fallen off a cliff” and that efforts to stimulate recovery may lead to inflation higher than the 1970s.

The American public is fearful, confused and changing their buying habits, which is showing up at Berkshire’s operating units, Buffett said during an appearance on the CNBC television network today. While the recession will end and future generations will live better than their parents, the economy “can’t turn around on a dime,” Buffett said, adding that some inflation is appropriate right now.

We are doing things now that are potentially very inflationary,” he said. Buffett called on Congress to unite behind President Barack Obama, comparing the economic crisis to a military conflict that needs a commander-in-chief. “Patriotic Americans will realize this is a war,” he said....


Finacial Crisis Racks Up $50 Trillion in Worldwide Losses in 2008


This is the price we pay for chronic malinvestment, unsustainable imbalances, a bubble in the world's reserve currency, and a blind eye to protracted fraud and misrepresentation of the economic reality by the financiers and their partners in government.

Staggering losses to be sure, and more to come. But what is most discouraging is that so far we have made little or no progress towards systemic reform and a return balanced global trade with organic growth, savings, and an efficient world financial flow of goods, services, and wealth.


Economic Times (India)
$50 trillion wiped off world financial assets: ADB

9 Mar 2009, 1022 hrs IST,
ET Bureau

MANILA: The global crisis wiped a staggering $50 trillion off the value of financial assets last year including $9.6 trillion of losses in developing Asia alone, the Asian Development Bank said Monday.

``This is by far the most serious crisis to hit the world economy since the Great Depression,'' said ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda. But he predicted Asia would be ``one of the first regions to emerge from it.''

In a study commissioned by the Manila-based lender on the impact of the financial crisis on emerging economies, it estimated the value of financial assets worldwide, currency, equity and bond markets, to have dropped by $50 trillion in 2008.

It said developing Asia was hit harder, losing the equivalent of just over one year's worth of gross domestic product, than other emerging economies because the region has expanded much more rapidly.

In Latin America, losses were estimated at $2.1 trillion. According to the study, the figures provide clear proof of the close connections between markets and economies around the world, leaving few, if any, countries immune to financial or economic fallout. A recovery can only now be envisaged for late 2009 or early 2010, it said.

A sprawling region, developing Asia includes 44 economies from the central Asian republics to China to the Pacific islands. The bank had earlier projected the region's growth to slow to 5.8 percent this year from an estimated 6.9 percent last year.

The worldwide downturn has hit export-driven economies particularly hard. From South Korea to Taiwan to Singapore, exports have plunged by double digits in recent months as American and European consumers spent less on cars and gadgets....


08 March 2009

Reykjavik on the Thames: A Run on the British Pound


The British economy is mortally wounded, and Gordon Brown is quite frankly not the man to fix it.

Britain faces the real risk of a crisis in the pound that will be worse than its euro peg crisis made famous by George Soros and the gnomes of Zurich chanting "Sell 100 quid! Sell 100 quid!"

Will investors flee from currency to currency in search of a safe haven as the global financial system collapses? Who can say. But it is certainly past time to hedge one's bets with sources of alternative wealth protection.


The Independent (UK)
Run on UK sees foreign investors pull $1 trillion out of the City
By Sean O'Grady, Economics correspondent
Saturday, 7 March 2009

Banking crisis undermines Britain's reputation as a safe place to hold funds

A silent $1 trillion "Run on Britain" by foreign investors was revealed yesterday in the latest statistical releases from the Bank of England. The external liabilities of banks operating in the UK – that is monies held in the UK on behalf of foreign investors – fell by $1 trillion (£700bn) between the spring and the end of 2008, representing a huge loss of funds and of confidence in the City of London.

Some $597.5bn was lost to the banks in the last quarter of last year alone, after a modest positive inflow in the summer, but a massive $682.5bn hemorrhaged in the second quarter of 2008 – a record. About 15 per cent of the monies held by foreigners in the UK were withdrawn over the period, leaving about $6 trillion. This is by far the largest withdrawal of foreign funds from the UK in recent decades – about 10 times what might flow out during a "normal" quarter.

The revelation will fuel fears that the UK's reputation as a safe place to hold funds is being fatally compromised by the acute crisis in the banking system and a general trend to financial protectionism internationally.

This week, Lloyds became the latest bank to approach the Government for more assistance. A deal was agreed last night for the Government to insure about £260bn of assets in return for a stake of up to 75 per cent in the bank. The slide in sterling – it has shed a quarter of its value since mid-2007 – has been both cause and effect of the run on London, seemingly becoming a self-fulfilling phenomenon. The danger is that the heavy depreciation of the pound could become a rout if confidence completely evaporates....



07 March 2009

Weekend Reading: How Wall Street and Washington Are Betraying America


The original title for this essay was "How Wall Street and Washington Betrayed America." As you can see from the above, this blog has a slightly different perspective.

We would like to be able to say that this was an unfortunate problem that has occurred, and that we are dealing with its aftermath. The repair of the economy is just a matter of time and money.

It is not, and we are not.

The problem continues. This was not an exogenous event like an accident. It is a pernicious condition, a chronic wasting disease. The carriers of the infection are still at work.

The system is distorted, sick, incapable of self-cure. Feeding intravenous liquidity to obtain the appearance of health will not work, only allow the disease to progress. Strong medicine is required.

We will have no recovery until we have reform.

We will have no reform until the banks are restrained, and balance is restored.

The looting of the public Treasury will continue while the Congress and the Executive take their direction from Wall Street.

Paying for Policy in Washington
Wall Street's Best Investment
By ROBERT WEISSMAN

"The entire financial sector (finance, insurance, real estate) drowned political candidates in campaign contributions, spending more than $1.7 billion in federal elections from 1998-2008. Primarily reflecting the balance of power over the decade, about 55 percent went to Republicans and 45 percent to Democrats. Democrats took just more than half of the financial sector's 2008 election cycle contributions.

The industry spent even more -- topping $3.4 billion -- on officially registered lobbyists during the same period. This total certainly underestimates by a considerable amount what the industry spent to influence policymaking. U.S. reporting rules require that lobby firms and individual lobbyists disclose how much they have been paid for lobbying activity, but lobbying activity is defined to include direct contacts with key government officials, or work in preparation for meeting with key government officials. Public relations efforts and various kinds of indirect lobbying are not covered by the reporting rules.

During the decade-long period:

* Commercial banks spent more than $154 million on campaign contributions, while investing $383 million in officially registered lobbying;

* Accounting firms spent $81 million on campaign contributions and $122 million on lobbying;

* Insurance companies donated more than $220 million and spent more than $1.1 billion on lobbying; and

* Securities firms invested more than $512 million in campaign contributions, and an additional nearly $600 million in lobbying. Hedge funds, a subcategory of the securities industry, spent $34 million on campaign contributions (about half in the 2008 election cycle); and $20 million on lobbying. Private equity firms, also a subcategory of the securities industry, contributed $58 million to federal candidates and spent $43 million on lobbying.

Individual firms spent tens of millions of dollars each. During the decade-long period:

* Goldman Sachs spent more than $46 million on political influence buying;

* Merrill Lynch threw more than $68 million at politicians;

* Citigroup spent more than $108 million;

* Bank of America devoted more than $39 million;

* JPMorgan Chase invested more than $65 million; and

* Accounting giants Deloitte & Touche, Ernst & Young, KPMG and Pricewaterhouse spent, respectively, $32 million, $37 million, $27 million and $55 million.

The number of people working to advance the financial sector's political objectives is startling. In 2007, the financial sector employed a staggering 2,996 separate lobbyists to influence federal policy making, more than five for each Member of Congress. This figure only counts officially registered lobbyists. That means it does not count those who offered "strategic advice" or helped mount policy-related PR campaigns for financial sector companies. The figure counts those lobbying at the federal level; it does not take into account lobbyists at state houses across the country. To be clear, the 2,996 figure represents the number of separate individuals employed by the financial sector as lobbyists in 2007. We did not double count individuals who lobby for more than one company the total number of financial sector lobby hires in 2007 was a whopping 6,738.

A great many of those lobbyists entered and exited through the revolving door connecting the lobbying world with government. Surveying only 20 leading firms in the financial sector (none from the insurance industry or real estate), we found that 142 industry lobbyists during the period 19982008 had formerly worked as "covered officials" in the government. "Covered officials" are top officials in the executive branch (most political appointees, from members of the cabinet to directors of bureaus embedded in agencies), Members of Congress, and congressional staff.

Nothing evidences the revolving door -- or Wall Street's direct influence over policymaking -- more than the stream of Goldman Sachs expatriates who left the Wall Street goliath, spun through the revolving door, and emerged to hold top regulatory positions. Topping the list, of course, are former Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Henry Paulson, both of whom had served as chair of Goldman Sachs before entering government. Goldman continues to be well represented in government, with among others, Gary Gensler, President Obama's pick to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Mark Patterson, a former Goldman lobbyist now serving as chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

All of this awesome influence buying has enabled Wall Street to establish the framework for debates in Washington, and to obtain very specific deregulatory actions, with devastating consequences."

Click below to find the full report with Executive Summary.

Sold Out: How Wall Street and Washington Betrayed America

Is the Bailout of AIG by the Fed a Bailout or a Payoff to the Major Banks?


In a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington on Thursday, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn declined to identify AIG's trading partners. He said doing so would make people wary of doing business with AIG.


The Fed has far overstepped their bounds and are disbursing tax money in secret without the oversight of Congress.


Wall Street Journal
Top U.S., European Banks Got $50 Billion in AIG Aid
By SERENA NG and CARRICK MOLLENKAMP
MARCH 7, 2009

The beneficiaries of the government's bailout of American International Group Inc. include at least two dozen U.S. and foreign financial institutions that have been paid roughly $50 billion since the Federal Reserve first extended aid to the insurance giant.

Among those institutions are Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Germany's Deutsche Bank AG, each of which received roughly $6 billion in payments between mid-September and December 2008, according to a confidential document and people familiar with the matter.

Other banks that received large payouts from AIG late last year include Merrill Lynch, now part of Bank of America Corp., and French bank Société Générale SA.

More than a dozen firms with smaller exposures to AIG also received payouts, including Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and HSBC Holdings PLC, according to the confidential document.

The names of all of AIG's derivative counterparties and the money they have received from taxpayers still isn't known, but The Wall Street Journal has identified some of them and is publishing others here for the first time.

Lawmakers Want Names

The AIG bailout has become a political hot potato as the risk of losses to U.S. taxpayers rises. This past week, legislators demanded that the Federal Reserve disclose names of financial firms that have received money from AIG, which Fed officials have described as too systemically important in the financial system to be allowed to fail.

In a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington on Thursday, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn declined to identify AIG's trading partners. He said doing so would make people wary of doing business with AIG. (ROFLMAO - Wary of doing business with AIG? - Jesse)

But Mr. Kohn told lawmakers he would take their requests to his colleagues. The Fed, through a new committee led by Mr. Kohn to discuss transparency concerns, is now weighing whether to disclose more details about the AIG transactions.

The Fed rescued AIG in September with an $85 billion credit line when investment losses and collateral demands from banks threatened to send the firm into bankruptcy court. A bankruptcy filing would have caused losses and problems for financial institutions and policyholders globally that were relying on AIG to insure them against losses.

Since September, the government has had to extend more aid to AIG as its woes have deepened; the rescue package now has swelled to more than $173 billion.

The government's rescue of AIG helped prevent its counterparties from incurring immediate losses on mortgage-backed securities and other assets they had insured through AIG. The bailout provided AIG with cash to pay the banks collateral on the money-losing trades; it also bought out underlying mortgage-linked securities, many of which are currently worth less than half their original value.

Banks and other financial companies were trading partners of AIG's financial-products unit, which operated more like a Wall Street trading firm than a conservative insurer. This AIG unit sold credit-default swaps, which acted like insurance on complex securities backed by mortgages. When the securities plunged in value last year, AIG was forced to post billions of dollars in collateral to counterparties to back up its promises to insure them against losses.

More Problems

Now, other problems are popping up for AIG. The insurer generated a sizable business helping European banks lower the amount of regulatory capital required to cushion against losses on pools of assets such as mortgages and corporate debt. It did this by writing swaps that effectively insured those assets.

Values of some of those assets are declining, too, forcing AIG to also post collateral against those positions. And if the portfolios incur losses, AIG will have to compensate the banks.

AIG had seen this business as a relatively safe bet for the company and its investors. The structures were designed to allow European banks to shuck aside high capital costs. A change in capital rules has meant that the AIG protection no longer meets regulatory requirements.

The concern has been that if AIG defaulted, banks that made use of the insurer's business to reduce their regulatory capital, most of which were headquartered in Europe, would have been forced to bring $300 billion of assets back onto their balance sheets, according to a Merrill report.



06 March 2009

FDIC Warns of Bank Deposit Insurance Fund Failure


The few banks are taking down the many because the Obama Administration does not have the will to tie off the bleeding and stitch it up.

Why? Because the money center banks are politically connected to them through a corrupt campaign funding system and lobbying effort.

One way or the other this will be resolved. It is only a matter of when, how much, who pays, and who profits.


AFP
FDIC warns US bank deposit insurance fund may tank
Thu Mar 5, 7:39 pm ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is warning banks that its deposit insurance fund could dry up this year amid rising bank failures although the deposits would remain fully backed by the government.

The head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Sheila Bair, in a letter to bank chief executives dated March 2, defended the FDIC's plan to raise fees on banks and assess an emergency fee to shore up the fund and maintain investor confidence.

Bair acknowledged the new fees, announced Friday, would put additional pressure on banks at time of financial crisis and a deepening recession, but insisted they were critical to keep the insurance fund solvent and protected.

"Without these assessments, the deposit insurance fund could become insolvent this year," Bair wrote.

The FDIC chief said in the letter that the rapidly deteriorating economic conditions raised the prospects of "a large number" of bank failures through 2010.

"Without substantial amounts of additional assessment revenue in the near future, current projections indicate that the fund balance will approach zero or even become negative," she wrote.

The FDIC last Friday announced it would impose a temporary emergency fee on lenders and raise its regular assessments to shore up the rapidly depleting deposit insurance fund that insures individual customer deposits up to 250,000 dollars.

A week ago the FDIC reported a sharp depletion of the deposit insurance fund in the fourth quarter due to actual and anticipated bank failures, to 19 billion dollars from 34.6 billion in the third quarter.

The FDIC said it had set aside an additional 22 billion dollars for estimated losses on failures anticipated in 2009.

"Some have suggested that we should turn to taxpayers for funding. But banks -- not taxpayers -- are expected to fund the system, and I believe Congress would look skeptically on such a course of action," Bair wrote.

"All banks benefit from the FDIC's industry-funded status and should take pride in it. Keeping the guarantee industry funded will serve banks well once this current crisis passes. Turning to taxpayers for support, on the other hand, could paint all banks with the 'bailout' brush."


Merrill Lynch Discloses "Trading Irregularities" to Regulators in London


Plenty of smoke here, with the fire to come over the weekend and/or next week.

Why don't we hear about this sort of thing from the US media until after hours? Are they too busy asking softball questions?

The timing of this disclosure, after the BofA acquisitions and the billions in last minute bonuses paid, is priceless.


Economic Times (India)
Merrill review spots trading 'irregularity'

7 Mar 2009, 0047 hrs IST, Bloomberg

LONDON: Merrill Lynch & Co, the securities firm acquired by Bank of America Corp, said it uncovered an “irregularity” during a review of its trading operations.

The bank informed regulators immediately of the discrepancy in “certain trading positions”, Merrill Lynch said in a statement from London. The bank said it’s working with the authorities to investigate further. A spokeswoman for the bank declined to comment further.

Merrill Lynch may have lost hundreds of millions of dollars on currency trading and credit derivatives last year, the New York Times reported earlier on Thursday.

The losses did not “spill into plain view” until after Bank of America investors had approved the $33 billion takeover in December and Merrill Lynch disbursed $3.6 billion in bonuses to bankers, the newspaper said. Bank of America later sought additional government funding. “Senior managers of the business are focused on the issue and believe the risks surrounding possible losses are under control,” Merrill Lynch said in the statement.

Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis is trying to rein in Merrill’s traders after their losses brought the bank to the brink of collapse, the New York Times said.

“It was always going to be extremely difficult to integrate a retail bank like Bank of America with an investment bank like Merrill because the cultures are so different,” said Richard Staite, an analyst at Atlantic Equities LLP in London. He has an “underweight” rating on Bank of America’s shares.


The Banking Crisis: Obama's Iraq Part 2


It is hard to assess who among the current DC crew are more limp when it comes to addressing the banking crisis in a meaningful and effective manner: Geithner, Summers or Bernanke.

They are all the very picture of the bureaucrat, which is a nice way of saying "systemic hacks." Have Timmy and Ben have reached their level of incompetency? Larry Summers has far exceededed his some years ago at Harvard.

It is difficult ground when one speculates on motives, but these are all rather bright fellows, albeit creatures nurtured by the system that they serve. It is hard to accept that their inability to address our financial crisis is sheer incompetency. But for now they obtain the benefit of doubt and the CEO's defense made so popular by the Enron crowd.

We wonder how bad it will get before Obama understands that his team is not working, that they have no actionable vision among them for whatever combination of reasons, and that the corruption being perpetuated is starting to stick rather handily to the Democrats.

The banking crisis is starting to look like Obama's Iraq.


Bloomberg
Hoenig Says Treasury Failed to Take ‘Decisive’ Action on Banks
By Steve Matthews and Vivien Lou Chen

March 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury has failed to take “decisive” action to address the bank crisis, pursuing an ad- hoc approach that leaves management in place and avoids necessary asset writedowns, a veteran Federal Reserve official said.

“If an institution’s management has failed the test of the marketplace, these managers should be replaced,” Fed Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said in prepared remarks for a speech in Omaha, Nebraska. “They should not be given public funds and then micro-managed, as we are now doing” with “a set of political strings attached.”

Hoenig’s comments are the most detailed criticism of the Treasury’s actions by a Fed official since the financial crisis began. By contrast, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has endorsed the approaches taken by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and his predecessor.

Geithner is requiring a “stress test” for the largest 19 U.S. banks to determine if they need more capital. He has stressed that nationalization isn’t the goal.

Last week, the U.S. government moved to convert some of the preferred stock it owned in Citigroup Inc. to common shares, gaining a 36 percent stake in the company and boosting Citigroup’s buffer against future losses. While authorities pushed for changes to the makeup of Citigroup’s board, Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit remains at the helm.

Hoenig said while policy makers “understandably” want to avoid nationalizing banks, “We nevertheless are drifting into a situation where institutions are being nationalized piecemeal with no resolution of the crisis.”

The Treasury’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program “began without a clear set of principles and has proceeded with what seems to be an ad-hoc and less-than-transparent approach,” Hoenig said today.

Banking regulators need to be willing to write down losses, bring in new managers and sell off businesses if institutions can’t survive on their own, “no matter what their size,” said Hoenig, the second-longest serving of the Fed district bank presidents, after Minneapolis’s Gary Stern.



The Banking Crisis: Obama's Iraq Part 1


Its a step in the right direction, but its hardly reform.

Everything about the Obama Administration to date has been 'limp,' toothless, almost apologetic.

Obama is on the road to failure, getting an "A" for rhetoric but "F's" for vision, commitment, team-building, and action.


Bloomberg
Volcker Urges Dividing Investment, Commercial Banks

By Matthew Benjamin and Christine Harper

March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Commercial banks should be separated from investment banks in order to avoid another crisis like the U.S. is experiencing, according to former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.

“Maybe we ought to have a kind of two-tier financial system,” Volcker, who heads President Barack Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, said today at a conference at New York University’s Stern School of Business. (Uh, didn't we have one up until a few months ago when Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley put on the Fed feedbag? - Jesse)

Commercial banks would provide customers with depository services and access to credit and would be highly regulated, while securities firms would have the freedom to take on more risk and practice trading, “relatively free of regulation,” Volcker said. (OMG - Jesse)

Volcker’s remarks indicated his preference for reinstating some of the divisions between commercial and investment banks that were removed by Congress’s repeal in 1999 of the Great Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act.

Volcker’s proposals, included in a January report he wrote with the Group of 30, would allow commercial banks to continue to do underwriting and provide merger advice, activities traditionally associated with investment banking, he said.

Still, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, which converted to banks in September, would have to exit some businesses if they were to remain as commercial banks, he said.

‘Separation’

“What used to be the traditional investment banks, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs so forth, which used to do some underwriting and mergers and acquisitions, are dominated by other activities we would exclude -- very heavy proprietary trading, hedge funds,” he said. “So there’s some separation to be made.”

Jeanmarie McFadden, a spokeswoman for Morgan Stanley, declined to comment. A Goldman spokesman couldn’t be immediately reached.

Volcker also said international regulations on financial firms are probably an inevitable consequence of the industry’s current problems.

“In this world, I don’t see how we can avoid international consistency” on securities regulations going forward, he said. “The U.S. is no longer in a position to dictate that the world does it according to the way we’ve done it.”

Volcker’s comments come as President Barack Obama seeks legislative proposals within weeks for a regulatory overhaul of finance, especially companies deemed vital to the stability of the financial system.

Glass-Steagall

The new regulatory framework may stop short of reinstating Glass-Steagall, analysts say, though banks may separate their business lines in order to avoid strong regulatory scrutiny.

Volcker, who ran the Fed from 1979 to 1987, said the financial industry’s problems stem from larger issues. “I don’t think this is just a technical problem, it’s a societal problem,” he said. He cited bankers on Wall Street receiving multimillion-dollar bonuses for engineering failed mergers.

“There’s something wrong with the system,” Volcker said. “What are the incentives, what’s going on here?”

British Airways Cut to "Junk"


Hard times for the world's favorite airline.

We hope it endures. It was a blow to traveling civility when SwissAir closed shop.

Many fond memories of the day flight from JFK to Heathrow with the odd chance of an upgrade to the Concorde.

Still, there is always the upstrart Virgin and Branson's Heathrow Clubhouse. And First on Alitalia to Roma. La dolce vita! lol.

Do we lose the frequent flier mileage points in bankruptcy? Oh the humanity!


Reuters
British Airways debt cut to junk after profit warning
By John Bowker
Wed Feb 11, 2009

LONDON, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Moody's cut its debt rating on British Airways to 'junk' status in light of the airline's recent profit warning and future spending plans.

The agency said it expected BA's gearing to rise to more than six times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) after warning it would make an operating loss of 150 million pounds ($216.1 million) in the year to end March -- or a record 240 million pounds in this quarter alone.

It said BA had 5.3 billion pounds in cash and committed debt facilities, but that the majority of it was tied up in spending plans. BA's rating was cut from Baa3 to Ba1 -- the difference between investment grade and junk status.

"In light of stepped up capex planned in full year 2010 and the continued weak outlook for the industry as a whole, the company will be challenged to improve its credit metrics materially," Moody's said in a statement....

"The rating downgrade reflects extremely difficult trading conditions ... we continue to review all aspects of the business to further control costs and preserve our cash position," he added.


Wall Street Journal
British Airways Warns of Revenue Drop for Next Fiscal Year

By KAVERI NITHTHYANANTHAN
MARCH 6, 2009

British Airways PLC lowered its expectations for revenue growth in the current fiscal year and warned sales would fall next year as it cuts capacity in response to softening demand.

The British flag carrier said that in the current fiscal year, which ends March 31, it expects revenue to rise 3.5%, which compares with an earlier estimate of 4% growth. Next fiscal year, the airline expects revenue to decline 5%.

At its investor day on Thursday, BA said that fuel costs for this year will rise by £950 million ($1.35 billion). However, for the coming fiscal year, the airline expects fuel costs to decline 10%, thanks to hedging at levels lower than the peaks seen in the middle of 2008....


05 March 2009

Most Chinese Economists Favor Gold Over US Treasuries for Their National Reserves


Barbarously inconvenient to the global dollar hegemon.

Time for another announcement of an IMF gold sale? Sounds as though China would like to know when they will be able to take delivery.

Zimbabwe Ben will simply have to pick up the slack.

In all seriousness, if China starts pressing this issue the US will have no choice but engage in the long overdue revaluation of its national gold reserves significantly higher. This would be one method of reducing the national debt to China and buying back some of the Treasury bonds.

Unfortunately in this case 'higher' would be a factor of x5 at least, or as high as an order of magnitude, x10.

Perhaps the Chinese would settle for an option on West Texas, if Mexico is not interested.

And the angel shouted, "Fallen! Powerful Babylon has fallen..." Revelation 18:2


ChinaStakes
Survey: Over Two-Thirds of Chinese Economists Favor Gold Over US Bonds

by CSC staff, Shanghai
March 02,2009

In a survey of major Chinese economists, more than two-thirds are reportedly bearish on the prospect of China increasing its holdings of US government bonds, and believe instead the nation should putting more of its hard-earned into gold.

According to a China Business News survey of 70 Chinese economists (including one foreign economist), the exact figure is 71.4% anti-bonds and pro-gold.

The use of China's huge foreign exchange reserve is a topic of concern and controversy. The remaining 28.6% of those polled believe China should continue to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. 38.6% think that China should not continue to buy, but also should not to sell US bonds. 32.8% believe that China should unload the bonds, 22.8% of whom think we should have a slight sell-off, while 10% think China should drop them like a bad habit.

All this is against a backdrop of China surpassing Japan to become America's largest US bond holder and of the ever-widening global financial kerfuffle.

The survey also brings to light the question of whether China’s gold reserves should be increased. Recent gold futures prices broke through US$1000/ounce, making gold the most outstanding asset in the financial turmoil. One economist thinks China’s current gold reserve of 600 tons is an unnecessary load and that the opportunity should be grasped to sell off a bunch of it at a good price.

21.4% of economists said that the gold reserve level was fine and leave it alone.

But 75.7% of the economists asked believe that China should increase its holdings of gold, with 48.6% opting for a slight increase while 27.1% think China should pile in.

At US$1000 an ounce?!

Barclays Asked to Account for 3.3 Billion in Lehman Bonus Money


The difference between the monies transferred to Barclay's and the amounts actually disbursed may have accounted for almost a third of Barclay's reported pre-tax profits.

One would have to wonder if the Barclay's executives were paid bonuses on such impressive financial results.

Thus do fees and bonus money provide a cornucopia of personal enrichment to the financiers at the expense of the real economy.

Financial Times
Barclays questioned on funds
By Francesco Guerrera, Greg Farrell and Julie MacIntosh in New York
March 5 2009 11:03

Lehman Brothers’ US liquidators have asked Barclays to explain what happened to an estimated $3.3bn earmarked for bonuses and other liabilities that the UK bank received when it acquired part of the bankrupt Wall Street company last year.

The move by Bryan Marsal, who heads the firm managing Lehman’s US liquidation, underlines the tension between the company’s creditors and Barclays, which acquired the North American arms of the investment bank for $1.5bn after it filed for bankruptcy in September.

The decision by Alvarez & Marsal, charged with recovering funds for creditors, to query Barclays’ use of the money could fuel controversy over bonuses paid to Lehman executives who stayed with the UK bank.

In its yearly results last month, Barclays booked a gain of £2.3bn ($3.3bn) on the difference between the fair value of the assets and liabilities acquired from Lehman and the price paid for them. The gain accounted for about a third of Barclays’ pre-tax profits and helped Barclays Capital, its investment banking arm, to record a profit of £1.3bn.

People close to the situation said Mr Marsal wrote to Barclays on February 19 asking it to reconcile the $4.2bn transferred to the UK bank after the takeover – composed of $2bn for compensation and $2.25bn for other purposes – with his firm’s estimate that BarCap has so far spent about $900m.

Mr Marsal’s letter – sent to Rich Ricci, BarCap’s chief operating officer, and Jonathan Hughes, its general counsel – says that, under the takeover deal, Barclays received $2bn from Lehman to pay bonuses and severance to transferring employees, according to people who have seen the document. However, Alvarez & Marsal estimates Barclays had to pay only about $700m in bonuses and severance, these people say.

The liquidators’ analysis of Lehman’s internal documents concluded that the total amount of compensation set aside for the investment bank’s global workforce until the end of August was $1.3bn. But because Barclays bought only Lehman’s North American operations, whose 10,000-plus employees accounted for 55 per cent of the compensation pool, its expenses should have been about $700m.

The agreement between Barclays and Lehman also provided for the transfer of cash and collateral, including $2.25bn to pay for liabilities to be settled after the takeover, according to people who have seen the letter. However, in the document Alvarez & Marsal calculates that Barclays’ payments for these liabilities have been about $200m, and the estimate for the final amount is much lower than expected, these people said.

People close to the situation said Barclays had written to Mr Marsal on February 23 saying BarCap was open to discussing the issues but rejected the suggestion that the original takeover agreement should be amended.

Barclays said on Wednesday: “Alvarez & Marsal’s position is completely without merit, baseless and a serious misunderstanding of the facts. All of these matters were approved by the New York bankruptcy court in September 2008.”

Lehman Brothers Holdings, the bank’s remaining businesses, now managed by Alvarez & Marsal, said it was “not making any allegations but is simply requesting factual information from Barclays as to certain discrepancies”.



The Bank of England Begins Monetization in Earnest


The British Pound is headed to parity with the US dollar. This will add some sting to the economic downturn for the common people of Britian.

Gordon Brown was a key architect in the financial crisis and decline, and it is discouraging to see that he still holds power, in much the same way that it was disappointing to see Larry Summers as Obama's key economic advisor.

Both Britain and the US are experiencing a deficiency in political leadership with regard to the financial crisis. Gordon Brown was expected, but Obama so far has been a crushing disappointment, at least to the public.


Reuters
Bank of England cuts rates, to buy govt bonds to boost economy
By Sumeet Desai and Fiona Shaikh
Thu Mar 5, 2009 9:23am EST

LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday to a record low of 0.5 percent, and said it would buy 75 billion pounds of assets to expand the money supply and aid a recession-hit British economy.

Unveiling the asset purchase programme -- the start of "quantitative easing" measures employed when rates get near to their minimum -- the Bank said the likely majority of purchases over the next three months would be of gilts (UK government bonds) at medium and long maturities.

Gilts soared on the announcement, with the June future rallying more than 2.50 full points, while sterling fell against the dollar.

The latest rate reduction means the BoE has now cut interest rates for six months running by a total of 4.5 percentage points as Britain struggles with its first recession since the early 1990s.

The government has given the BoE permission to buy as much as 150 billion pounds' worth of assets with newly-created money. This figure also includes 50 billion pounds set aside in the government's asset purchase facility that hitherto would have been funded by the issue of Treasury bills.

The total of 150 billion pounds was at the top end of what analysts had been expecting.

The Bank said it would monitor the effectiveness of the asset buying programme at its future meetings. Such a policy was pursued by Japan at the start of the decade but is unprecedented in Britain and underlines the severity of the downturn caused by the global credit crisis.

The policy is intended to encourage the banks to lend more freely to households and businesses, and in turn stimulate economic growth.

The latest reduction in interest rates would itself leave a substantial risk of inflation undershooting the two percent target in two-years' time. (In what alternative universe does that follow on? If you lower rates you lower inflation eventually? Perhaps they meant 'overshooting' or perhaps they are just repeating Orwellian memes. - Jesse)

But the BoE added it was also concerned that a low level of interest rates could be counterproductive for some markets.

"It is in line with expectations. The decision to embark on an asset purchase of 75 billion is obviously the right move," said Amit Kara, UK economist at UBS. "We think it is a start and will probably end up double the size, probably over the course of the year."


03 March 2009

MGM Mirage May Go Into Default


"MGM Mirage says it may break loan covenants this year unless more people gamble."

Is nothing sacred? LOL

There are a more tha a few brokerages behind them on this default curve as the punters start hitting the wall, and the loose money in the speculating economy continues to flow into the black hole of the money center banks.


AP
MGM Mirage casino company says it may default on debt

By Oskar Garcia, Associated Press Writer
Tuesday March 3, 5:23 pm ET

Casino company MGM Mirage says it may break loan covenants this year unless more people gamble

LAS VEGAS (AP) -- Casino operator MGM Mirage says it believes it will break loan convenants this year unless the economy turns around and more people gamble.

The Las Vegas-based casino operator said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Tuesday that it will delay filing its annual report because it is still assessing its financial position and liquidity needs.

MGM Mirage says that if it breaks its covenants to lenders, it will default on its senior credit facility. The company says it has asked to modify the credit facility but doesn't know yet whether its terms will change.

MGM Mirage says its annual report will likely contain a report from its independent accountants about MGM Mirage's ability to continue as a company.


BAC Credit Rating Cut by S&P Overall and Subsidiaries to "Junk"


S&P has downgraded Bank of America's overall credit rating from A+ to A.

It has also cut the ratings of its subsidiaries to junk.

S&P reaffirms the AAA rating of their debt that is guaranteed by the FDIC.


S&P downgrades Bank of America ratings
Tuesday March 3, 4:44 pm ET

S&P cuts Bank of America ratings, outlook remains to negative, citing earnings pressures

NEW YORK (AP) -- Standard & Poor's on Tuesday downgraded Bank of America Corp. on concerns that earnings pressures for the bank may be greater than originally anticipated.

S&P cut the Charlotte, N.C.-based bank's long-term counterparty credit rating to "A" from "A+," and affirmed the "A-1" short-term rating. The outlook remains "negative," which suggests the possibility of more cuts to come.

"We downgraded BofA one notch because we believe that the economic weakness will persist and that in turn, earnings pressures will be more intense than we anticipated as recently as Dec. 19, 2008, the date of our last downgrade of BofA," Standard & Poor's credit analyst John Bartko said in a statement.

The ratings agency also lowered its ratings on the bank's subsidiaries to "A+/A-1" from "AA-/A-1+," the bank's hybrid rating to "BB-" from "BBB," and the hybrid ratings on the bank subsidiaries to "BB" from "BBB+."

"We lowered the hybrid capital rating by four notches because of our view that the risk that BofA could defer dividend payments has increased," the rating agency said, noting the move reflects heightened concern that the bank's management could decide to exercise its option not to pay dividends.

Bank of America posted a $2.39 billion loss for the three months ended in December, hours after it convinced the federal government it needed a $20 billion lifeline to survive the absorption of Merrill Lynch's hefty losses.

Merrill Lynch posted a loss of $15.31 billion for the period -- underscoring Bank of America's assertion that it needed extra U.S. aid in order to absorb the investment bank's bad mortgage bets.

Bank of America is one of the companies at the center of a storm engulfing the U.S. financial system, and has received $45 billion in emergency funding from the government.

On Monday, Bank of America chief executive Ken Lewis told the Financial Times newspaper that the second part of that aid, a $20 billion chunk to support the bank's hastily arranged purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co. last fall, was a "tactical mistake."


The Problem with the Banking System and the Failure of Economics


This is a discussion of the financial crisis and economics between Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahneman on January 27 in Munich.

It is an important discussion for anyone looking beyond the surface into our current financial crisis.

There is a use of jargon and technical terms at some points but not overmuch. It is useful if you just listen, and obtain what you can, and do not fret over that for which you are not grounded by education or experience.

If what they say is valid, there are enormous implications for our financial system and economics as a profession.

The economists are sure to hate it, in particular the Americans who are enamored of equations and studies to a fault. There is a new school of Economics that will rise out of this financial crisis, as Keynesianism rose out of the 1930 and monetarism the 1970's.

If I had been there, I would have made a stronger point that people tend to use these equations, these irrelevant maps as it were, as 'excuses' or rationales for doing things which they know are wrong, but wish to do anyway because it is to their short term benefit.

Taleb is directionally correct about his prescription for the banking system and financial instruments. Banks, especially large ones, must be simple, transparent, stable to a fault. Hedge funds and speculation is another matter completely.

There was a wisdom in the limitations imposed by Glass-Steagall. More profound than most realize. And the bankers hated it because it limited their ability to game the system.

And this confirms that Bernanke and Geithner and Summers are taking us in entirely the wrong direction, and are going to make this crisis much worse.

You may wish to start this video about five minutes into this recording since it does not start with the show itself, but people being seated.

Taleb and Kahneman Video Discussion in Munich on January 27

JP Morgan Made $5 Billion in Profit on $88 Trillion in Unregulated Derivatives Speculation


There is no justification for a commercial bank, with regulated depositors' funds insured by the government, should be speculating on a level this great.

One also has to wonder who actually 'lost' in those derivatives bets that JP Morgan made, who the counterparties were. How many losses were taken by AIG, Bear Stearns, and Lehman?

Who is really being bailed out here? Aren't we paying for JP Morgan's "winnings?"

If they speculate and lose, who pays for that? We do.

What is a bank doing gambling in unregulated over-the-counter derivatives involving commodities and financial instruments worth $89 Trillion?

Getting paid by the public whether they win or lose it appears.

When a single player with deep pockets and government guarantees is placing bets in markets on a scale that dwarfs the Gross Domestic Product of United States that is the very definition of moral hazard.

Until the Obama Administration takes strong steps to bring back Glass-Steagall, and put hard limits on the banks there will be no reform and no recovery.

We are 48 days into this Administration. We have see little or no systemic reform. Just a continuation of crony capitalism under Bernanke, Summers and Geithner.


Bloomberg
JPMorgan earns $5 billion derivatives profit

By Ratul Ray Chaudhuri in Bangalore
Tue Mar 3, 2009 2:56am EST

March 3 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co generated $5 billion in profit during the worst year in Wall Street history by trading over-the-counter fixed-income derivatives, Bloomberg said, citing two people with knowledge of the results.

The bank, which reported $5.6 billion of total profit in 2008, has not disclosed earnings for its interest-rate swap, municipal bond and foreign exchange derivatives group, the agency said. The unit was among the most profitable at the New York-based company, it added.

The JPMorgan trading desk may have benefited as the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc and JPMorgan's takeover of Bear Stearns Cos left companies and hedge funds with fewer trading partners in the private derivatives markets, the agency said.

Among commercial lenders, JP Morgan dominates OTC derivatives trading, the agency said, citing data compiled by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

The bank held $87.7 trillion worth of outstanding OTC contracts as of Sept. 30, more than the next two banks, Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc, combined, the agency reported.

JPMorgan could not be immediately reached by Reuters for comment.



02 March 2009

SP Monthly Chart and Short Term Indicators


Big Support has been broken and the SP is dropping hard to the nearest support.

Market is becoming short term oversold again.

Non-farm payrolls coming out on Friday could provide a catalyst for a panic leg down. We may get a short covering squeeze before then.

Watch resistance and support on the daily and hourly charts.



Bullish Percent



McClellan Oscillator



Volatility Indicator (VIX)



Net Asset Values and Premiums of Select Gold and Silver Funds and ETFs




The Financial Crisis Was Well Under Way in December 2007


Here is one clear indicator of when the Financial Crisis actually started with a vengance, although its roots go back to the Clinton Administration at least and the repeal, in stages, of Glass-Steagall.


Source: Institutional Research Analyst and the FDIC

The Next Bailout: Pension Funds Imploding


It is in times like these that Pension Fund Managers, and the Other People's Money crowd in general, are showing how they earned their pay, or didn't.

Aren't you glad the Bush Administration did not achieve its objective of putting the Social Security Trust Fund into the stock market?

Although its not clear how much difference that is going to make in the long run.

We are still in the calculated and deliberate 'general looting of the country' phase and the tide has not yet turned. The financiers are still in control.


Chicago Business News
Pension bombs going off

By: Paul Merrion
March 02, 2009

Exploding pension fund shortfalls are blowing billion-dollar holes in the balance sheets of some of the Chicago area's biggest companies, forcing them to make huge contributions to retirement plans at a time when cash flow and credit are already under stress.

Boeing Co.'s shareholder equity is now $1.2 billion in the hole thanks to an $8.4-billion gap between its pension assets and the projected cost of its obligations for 2008. At the end of 2007, Boeing had a $4.7-billion pension surplus. If its investments don't turn around, the Chicago-based aerospace giant will have to quadruple annual contributions to its plan to about $2 billion by 2011.

Stock market losses also pounded pension funds at Abbott Laboratories Inc., Caterpillar Inc. and Exelon Corp., with others sure to emerge as companies file their annual financial reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission in coming weeks.

The pension gaps underscore a growing conundrum. Unfunded pension liabilities have to be subtracted from shareholder equity, weakening balance sheets at a time when it's already tough to borrow money. Barring a reprieve from Congress, companies may be forced to make more layoffs or curb capital investments to divert cash to shore up pensions....

The Chicago companies are symptomatic of nationwide woes. Last year, the 100 largest corporate pension funds in the U.S. saw their net assets decline by 21%, while liabilities increased 1.2%. Applying those averages to any of the region's top funds puts almost all of them into the red by at least $1 billion....



01 March 2009

Thoughts for a Sunday Evening in Times of Uncertainty


"God has created me to do Him some definite service; He has committed some work
to me which He has not committed to another. I have my mission. I may never know
it in this life, but I shall be told it in the next.... I am a link in a chain,
a bond of connexion between persons. He has not created me for naught. I shall
do good, I shall do His work; I shall be an angel of peace, a preacher of truth
in my own place, while not intending it, if I do but keep His commandments and
serve Him in my calling.

Therefore I will trust Him. Whatever, wherever
I am, I can never be thrown away. If I am in sickness, my sickness may serve
Him; in perplexity, my perplexity may serve Him; if I am in sorrow, my sorrow
may serve Him. My sickness, or perplexity, or sorrow may be necessary causes of
some great end, which is quite beyond us. He does nothing in vain; He may
prolong my life, He may shorten it; He knows what He is about. He may take away
my friends, He may throw me among strangers, He may make me feel desolate, make
my spirits sink, hide the future from me --still He knows what He is about."

John Henry Newman, Meditations and Devotions